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JR8
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Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 9:49 am

I always found that Friday was the best day on which to gnaw over philosophical points.

Coming from NW1 I expect you had a 'posh leftarati' dinner circle too.

p.s. I really do not care one way or another if a friend is a tube driver, bus drivers or CEO of RBS.

The irony is that in my experience, the people who make such statements are those who do really care. Otherwise why bother remarking on it...

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:02 am

ScoobyDoes wrote:Sorry, I would care......means he's a twat :lol:
Meltdown, yes I think so unless this place can really get to grips with higher efficiency and doing more with less and better people.
Immigration shouldn't be the only answer to higher GDP.


I suspect it will become increasingly sclerotic. SG can go on and on drilling it's citizenry about achievement and success, but there is a point (now well passed), at which hunger is gone, and complacency and entitlement sets in.

Any dynamism and hunger here, comes from foreigners.

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Postby PrimroseHill » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:03 am

JR8 wrote:p.s. I really do not care one way or another if a friend is a tube driver, bus drivers or CEO of RBS.

The irony is that in my experience, the people who make such statements are those who do really care. Otherwise why bother remarking on it...

To egg you on, JR8

Not NW1, darhling :lol: 8-)

Scooby, yeah something has to be done. People here are way too spoilt, cushy life

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:09 am

PrimroseHill wrote:Not NW1, darhling :lol: 8-)


Ohh gawd, not NW8 I hope.

You remind me somewhat (terrifyingly) of my first girlfriend; a bountiful and joyous NW3 'beck'

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Postby PrimroseHill » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:18 am

JR8 wrote:I suspect it will become increasingly sclerotic. SG can go on and on drilling it's citizenry about achievement and success, but there is a point (now well passed), at which hunger is gone, and complacency and entitlement sets in.

Any dynamism and hunger here, comes from foreigners.


There are some SG hunger and dynamism about but not enough. They are so used to being spoonfed by the govt. Square holes round pegs. I am begining to wonder if the majority of them can think outside the box.
Ohh gawd, not NW8 I hope.



Nope not NW8, who can afford to live there? Great salt beef sandwich shop though

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:30 am

Oh, which one?

Only one (in London) I occasionally frequent is 'The Brass Rail' at Selfridges.

http://londonreviewofsandwiches.wordpre ... ef-reuben/



p.s. Ah.... oh ... damn how I miss a Reuben sandwich. Hey SMS, have you thought of opening up a deli?


http://haroldsfamousdeli.com/
Knock me out.... (used to work 400 yards up the road!)
Last edited by JR8 on Fri, 17 Jan 2014 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby PrimroseHill » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:41 am


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Postby Wd40 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 10:42 am

PrimroseHill wrote:I really do not care one way or another if a friend is a tube driver, bus drivers or CEO of RBS.
Just not into those with chips on their shoulders or the world owes them.

Back to the subject at hand. Is Singapore heading for a meltdown?


I dont think SG will meltdown. If you compare this bubble with the previous bubble that burst in 2008, you will see that there are several differences.
1)In 2008 nobody expected the bubble to burst, it came as a shock. This time everybody is expecting it to burst. When there is so much consensus, it wont happen.
2)The gahmen has lots of tools in its arm this time round. It can unwind all the cooling measures and suddenly you will lots of people who were priced out of the market suddenly jumping in and that will support the market
3)The gahmen can intervene bigtime to ensure that banks get as linient as possible in terms of loan recovery. Asians are much more stigmatic about defaulting on loans than the Americans. Even if the value of the house falls below the outstanding loan amounts, I dont see Asians wanting to default like the Americans did during subprime crisis.

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 11:27 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxZA85-pJQ8
Test reel - Katz's Delicatessen in New York City

Wondrous but terrifying, in that uniquely NYC way.

-----------
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCWkb6seGoo
cuts at katz

I used to frequent Sergeants in Midtown (now defunct?), but Katz was the place to go with visitors.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbjlHUYNWuU

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Postby zzm9980 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 1:15 pm

Wd40 wrote:1)In 2008 nobody expected the bubble to burst, it came as a shock. This time everybody is expecting it to burst. When there is so much consensus, it wont happen.

Consensus on what though? If everyone is standing on the tracks blind-folded, or in full "consensus" that the train is coming, they're still going to die if they're on the tracks unless they do something about it. Is there consensus on the right solution to avoid the train? Or will the 'solution' (say cooling measures) only benefit some as opposed to all when the train arrives/bubble bursts.

Wd40 wrote:2)The gahmen has lots of tools in its arm this time round. It can unwind all the cooling measures and suddenly you will lots of people who were priced out of the market suddenly jumping in and that will support the market

Re-inflating the market. Cooling measures are a short term fix, not a solution. Do you just keep turning them off and on trying to keep the egg balanced?

Wd40 wrote:3)The gahmen can intervene bigtime to ensure that banks get as linient as possible in terms of loan recovery. Asians are much more stigmatic about defaulting on loans than the Americans. Even if the value of the house falls below the outstanding loan amounts, I dont see Asians wanting to default like the Americans did during subprime crisis.


So the government will make the banks take a huge hit? Where does the money come from? I wonder how much GIC and Temasek own in each of the local banks? Maybe they can loan the banks money from CPF?
:lol:

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Postby Beeroclock » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 2:01 pm

Wd40 wrote:
PrimroseHill wrote:I really do not care one way or another if a friend is a tube driver, bus drivers or CEO of RBS.
Just not into those with chips on their shoulders or the world owes them.

Back to the subject at hand. Is Singapore heading for a meltdown?


I dont think SG will meltdown. If you compare this bubble with the previous bubble that burst in 2008, you will see that there are several differences.
1)In 2008 nobody expected the bubble to burst, it came as a shock. This time everybody is expecting it to burst. When there is so much consensus, it wont happen.
2)The gahmen has lots of tools in its arm this time round. It can unwind all the cooling measures and suddenly you will lots of people who were priced out of the market suddenly jumping in and that will support the market
3)The gahmen can intervene bigtime to ensure that banks get as linient as possible in terms of loan recovery. Asians are much more stigmatic about defaulting on loans than the Americans. Even if the value of the house falls below the outstanding loan amounts, I dont see Asians wanting to default like the Americans did during subprime crisis.

As others stated earlier, if there's a global meltdown, or a China blip (which probably means global meltdown nowadays), then surely Singapore will go down too. Singapore economy, equities and property has always been volatile and tied to macro factors.

However my 2ct worth is that a Singapore *specific* meltdown will be unlikely. This might not be the case if it was not for the cooling measures though, which I believe have been successful in containing property speculation, moderating prices and substantially reducing transaction volume.

IMO, the govt is (overall) doing a good job and has been for decades, especially when benchmarked against other neighbouring countries. Even comparing vs developed western countries for that matter, where the 3-4 year re-election cycle drives everything, Singapore has a huge advantage of staying the course and finishing what it starts. They also have the scope and authority to take unpopular but important decisions (e.g. cooling measures) unlike many Western govts who are held hostage to minorities and lobby groups.

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 2:20 pm

Beeroclock wrote:IMO, the govt is (overall) doing a good job and has been for decades, especially when benchmarked against other neighbouring countries. Even comparing vs developed western countries for that matter, where the 3-4 year re-election cycle drives everything, Singapore has a huge advantage of staying the course and finishing what it starts. They also have the scope and authority to take unpopular but important decisions (e.g. cooling measures) unlike many Western govts who are held hostage to minorities and lobby groups.



'Ruling party', government?: No, more ruling family.

Yah, none of that pesky 'n interfering re-election cycle here, it's one family in charge for ever eh? ;)

Western governments, and their overbearing democratic mandate. So much simpler to be a dictatorship [for the good of all, naturally ;;].

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Postby PrimroseHill » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 2:52 pm

I agree with Beeroclock. This country is small enough for measures to be added or taken away with reasonable swiftness.
I wonder how easy it is for the UK govt to turn off the taps for Funding for Lending and Help to Buy.

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 2:57 pm

PrimroseHill wrote:I wonder how easy it is for the UK govt to turn off the taps for Funding for Lending and Help to Buy.


Or for the SGn government to stop subsidising HDB housing, for those most likely to vote for them?

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Postby Wd40 » Fri, 17 Jan 2014 3:01 pm

zzm9980 wrote:
Wd40 wrote:1)In 2008 nobody expected the bubble to burst, it came as a shock. This time everybody is expecting it to burst. When there is so much consensus, it wont happen.

Consensus on what though? If everyone is standing on the tracks blind-folded, or in full "consensus" that the train is coming, they're still going to die if they're on the tracks unless they do something about it. Is there consensus on the right solution to avoid the train? Or will the 'solution' (say cooling measures) only benefit some as opposed to all when the train arrives/bubble bursts.


Read this about consensus theory in investing:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/tr ... 111802.asp

When most investors are in consensus and are driving the market in a particular direction, one naturally thinks that the consensus will continue ad infinitum and that the best trading decision is to follow the crowd.

However, history has proven exactly the opposite. When driven strongly by consensus, crowd behavior is actually a contrary indicator. When the consensus of the majority of investors or traders is strongest, the individual trader should do exactly the opposite of what the crowd is doing.


In the current market majority are waiting for a correction and expecting a correction. This has been the case for the last 2-3 years. When so many people wait for a correction, the correction wont come.


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