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Are you holding your Gold and Silver positions?

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bgd
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Postby bgd » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 1:00 pm

JR8 wrote:….. No big drama bar the occasional 'nightmare tenant' [who I realise, going through the mill with one right now, that within my personal experience, three out of four I've been landlord to have been Australian women!? WTH is that all about? Sadly I'm seriously considering never renting to Aussies again...]



Just sounds like you are a slow learner ;-)

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Postby JR8 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 1:33 pm

Yes PH, I entirely understand. You start out small-time, and get on with your life and career, then years later turn around and think, jeez, well, that worked out ok, but now I’ve got most of my eggs in one basket: Is this prudent?

That was my thinking behind starting to build a stock portfolio (just passive/stable, in the background, keep on reliably chugging along, without paying 5% pa year-in-year-out to ‘advisors’). It was and is a counter-point to property.

Again you need to define your investment objectives. I’m as guilty as anyone else about being complacent at doing this (‘It bores the tits off me’ as one might say in England :))
I’ve a few properties (rentals) and my current thinking is a ‘great rotation’ lol. I.e. I have really 95% had enough of the bulls*** involved in being a landlord, especially the random stupid, weird stuff you seem to have to put up with. The f***tard surprises really piss you off exponentially more as you get older. 20YO tenant and 30 YO landlord, ok, vs 20 YO tenant and 50 YO landlord .... lol!

Is it time to forego property’s historic climb, for a simpler and less stressful life? Tricky. I told my (trusted, and long term agent, about my pondering and their stark reply was ‘Noooo!’. I do not take that lightly! But also accept that as much as I trust them, they still have their self-interest). The thing with property is that you can do it on margin, and 75, 90% mortgage? Sure, maximise your leverage, as long as it keeps going the right way.

But how much is enough? There must be enough. There must be a goal. When do you take your accumulating chips off the table? <conundrum> :). I think someone recently accused me of gloating, for floating this question before, but that is misguided. For every me, there are 99 people in SG with way way more than I will have. I’m not out to show off (sitting here in my $2 boxer shorts and freebie $5 value casio watch lol [it’s good though!!]). It is more of a philosophical point. And it is perhaps like a roulette player, having had two good plays, then asking, ‘what do you think guys, how far do I run this?’ :)

Most expats here are like roulette players. They've put their chips on the table, and are running a risk position. ...

Right now, having been Non-UK-Res for 5+ years, I can sell, and not be liable to CGT. Bingo! (you might think) That’s a big draw, that sits in line with trying to simplify our lives as we errr ... mature :)

We will probably return to the UK, either in 2014, or ?? if we get one last posting out of here [intentionally vague].

Now, if I can stick the assets in a brokers a/c (tax free) in the Isle of Man or Channel Islands, or have Tracy the fat Aussie chav call me pi**ed at 2am demanding I somehow turn up to unlock her door... what’s it going to be ... phh...

.... Either way. This is just a major theme I’m considering, and contemplating. Moving from a long-term strategy of being leveraged and risk-on. To now, especially considering tax, moving towards being more risk-off, offshore (tax efficient), and passive...

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Postby Beeroclock » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 2:35 pm

JR8 wrote:Is it time to forego property’s historic climb, for a simpler and less stressful life? Tricky.

But how much is enough? There must be enough. There must be a goal. When do you take your accumulating chips off the table?


1. While many property accumulators will be happy to hang onto them forever, I think it's logical to convert them into more transparent, hassle-free assets as you approach retirement. As you said the gearing is a major feature of property investment, but that's probably less consistent with your goals later in life. Not to mention tenant "issues".

2. It's a very legitimate question, and any serious retirement planning will go through the exercise to work this out. Several assumptions needed (annual living expenses, interest/dividend rate, tax rate, inflation rate) and you can back-calculate the lump sum needed to be financially independent. Which doesn't mean you will never work again, just that you will never HAVE to work again. Quite a luxury to have this choice.

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Postby PrimroseHill » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 2:51 pm

Philosophically speaking, I (or the royal we-being husband and I) do have a goal in mind. We aren't greedy nor ultrally materialistic, sure we love nice things and we like our home to be comfortable. We aren't rich by any stretch of imagination, we are doing alright. I am not going to be dishonest and say that we are over here in SG for altruslistic reasons. We are here because of the tax advantages that it afforded us, despite all the protestation of many people we have found properties here are slightly cheaper than properties in London, food cost is slightly cheaper and utilities are slightly cheaper too. Taxes are of course less. We are still contributing towards our National Insurance. Cars are expensive to buy here, however, runing costs are less than what it cost us in London. I found that I am able to save more than in London.
Yes, we live in fear of over leveraging. Are we over leveraged? No, not at all. We are debating over purchasing another property, for precisely that reason, capital appreciation. However, the over leveraging fear lurks in the quiet corner. We aren't fans of 95% mortgages; that will keep us awake at night. We looked into purchasing something in either midtown NYC or SF but property taxes are prohibitive. Over the summer when we were in Amsterdam, we dabbled with the idea of purchasing there too, once again taxes. So, husband actually thought about purchasing an older (over 5years)EC. In London, the rental yield is about 4-5%, not too bad, but capital appreciation is much better. Strangely enough our home in SG here, the rental yield is much better than our W London apartment.
Fingers cross, so far, other than one bad experience with some ITV producers as tenants, all of ours have been Japanese and they are really good, just cultural diferrences, like calling BG Homecare -45times in 6months :lol:

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Postby PrimroseHill » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 3:15 pm

I am uncertain about this tappering process. So, the govts, US, UK &EU will slowly taper off, turning off the printers. That means interest rates will rise. That means GBP, USD and EUR will rise. How will that help with the countries deficit? How will that help when export diminishes again, like it always does in UK? Sure cost of import will go down with the strengthening of the USD/GBP/EUR.
In the UK, the govt aren't really tackling the debt issue despite raising taxes. Despite, rising taxes and stealth taxes and all talks about spending cuts and austerity, the debt had been rising until the Autumn Statement. Sure, unemployment rates have gone down, but I had spoken to people, just random people from people working in the bars to taxi drivers - wages have remained stagnant or people that had been out of work for many years finally found employment many have had to take a lower wage. These govt lending schemes surely it is as bad as the mortgage crisis in years past? To me that's the brewing pot and if interest rates rises, that pot will boil over and this time it will affect a lot of people and I have to wonder if the UK govt will actually have the money to bail out the country out of a bubble that they have created themselves. Energy prices are at the highest levels, crazy levels - I was paying GBP760 per month just for heat and electric for a 4bed house.

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Postby Wd40 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 3:55 pm

Regarding tapering and policy tightening, I dont think the currencies will all rise. After all the exchange rate is relative isn't it? If USD rises against EUR and then EUR again rises against the USD net-net they are same isnt it :) I think its the against the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar that USD,GBP and EUR will rise substantially.

I would love to see interest rates rise. This cheap money has made lot of people take on too much leverage and made prudent people like me who has never invested in property due to high prices, look foolish. I am desperate for vindication.

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Postby Wd40 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 5:21 pm

Wow! Gold is taking it on its chin, at the moment. $1202.60!

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Postby Beeroclock » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 5:35 pm

Wd40 wrote:I would love to see interest rates rise. This cheap money has made lot of people take on too much leverage and made prudent people like me who has never invested in property due to high prices, look foolish. I am desperate for vindication.


Sounds an unhealthy cocktail, desperation mixed with vindication ! :P

I used to think that way too, but then I decided if you can't beat 'em, join 'em....

Am sure there will be a day when high interest rates return, all these things cycle. Might have a while to wait though. You're right some people will surely be found out, and it will also be much desired by retirees/savers who planned to live off their interest that has been eroded by all this stimulus/QE.

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Postby zzm9980 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 7:53 pm

Wd40 wrote:Wow! Gold is taking it on its chin, at the moment. $1202.60!


Screw gold, have you see Bit Coin? :shock:

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Postby JR8 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 7:55 pm

Beeroclock wrote: 2. It's a very legitimate question, and any serious retirement planning will go through the exercise to work this out. Several assumptions needed (annual living expenses, interest/dividend rate, tax rate, inflation rate) and you can back-calculate the lump sum needed to be financially independent. Which doesn't mean you will never work again, just that you will never HAVE to work again. Quite a luxury to have this choice.


Interesting. I've had to edit it down to have a chance of getting to any of your points (you raise many! :)).

I take your point about estimating expenses, but heavens it's not easy is it? I mean I sit here in SG, and have to try and predict what my 'running costs' might be if I retired to New England, or indeed England, or 'N E Where' :). Hmmm. Yes yes, I appreciate the way of crossing this psychological rubicon... just take a stab, give it your best go (Q. 'But how can I if I don't know?', --- A. 'Just try, your best!'). Aghhhh!

I think you make an excellent point, about visualising your expectations in retirement.
- Where will you live
- what will it cost
- what will your recurring overheads be
- what will you need for discretionary spending (holidays, 'treats' etc) be?
> Work it all backwards, to reach the lump-sum required to reliably generate the above...

and so on.


It's a difficult thing to sit down and consider if you've always followed a path of 'saving and just getting by'. Suddenly the reality bites...

@Z. Yeah, and I also saw Wall Street get KO'd when the Dot-Com bubble popped. It took down a lot of people... ...

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Postby Wd40 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 8:08 pm

zzm9980 wrote:
Wd40 wrote:Wow! Gold is taking it on its chin, at the moment. $1202.60!


Screw gold, have you see Bit Coin? :shock:


Yeah, I heard in the news that the price has halved or something because Chinese authorities have asked restricted its usage. I learnt about the bit coin only like a about month or so ago, already its so volatile.

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Postby JR8 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 8:11 pm

If you haven't had enough warning signs already, then heavens help you.

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Postby zzm9980 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 9:02 pm

Wd40 wrote:
zzm9980 wrote:
Wd40 wrote:Wow! Gold is taking it on its chin, at the moment. $1202.60!


Screw gold, have you see Bit Coin? :shock:


Yeah, I heard in the news that the price has halved or something because Chinese authorities have asked restricted its usage. I learnt about the bit coin only like a about month or so ago, already its so volatile.


Yeah, I have no idea what it's ultimate value you will. It's a roller-coaster. Just look and see how much money you'd have if you put $100 into it this time last year. Hell, if you put $1000 into it you'd be buying a condo somewhere right now. Quite a few stories floating around about people here or there that have made killings without realizing. One student invested $25 in 2009 just a part of a school research project. A few months ago he sold and bought property in Sweden.

Another guy accidently threw out a hard drive with $4 million GBP (only 2.5-3 mil today?) worth of Bit coin, and has been going through the land fill:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2 ... dfill-site

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Postby Wd40 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 11:36 pm

zzm9980 wrote:
Wd40 wrote:
zzm9980 wrote:
Wd40 wrote:Wow! Gold is taking it on its chin, at the moment. $1202.60!


Screw gold, have you see Bit Coin? :shock:


Yeah, I heard in the news that the price has halved or something because Chinese authorities have asked restricted its usage. I learnt about the bit coin only like a about month or so ago, already its so volatile.


Yeah, I have no idea what it's ultimate value you will. It's a roller-coaster. Just look and see how much money you'd have if you put $100 into it this time last year. Hell, if you put $1000 into it you'd be buying a condo somewhere right now. Quite a few stories floating around about people here or there that have made killings without realizing. One student invested $25 in 2009 just a part of a school research project. A few months ago he sold and bought property in Sweden.

Another guy accidently threw out a hard drive with $4 million GBP (only 2.5-3 mil today?) worth of Bit coin, and has been going through the land fill:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2 ... dfill-site


Wow! That's amazing, I didn't really know about all this.

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Postby Wd40 » Thu, 19 Dec 2013 11:46 pm

Beeroclock wrote:
Wd40 wrote:I would love to see interest rates rise. This cheap money has made lot of people take on too much leverage and made prudent people like me who has never invested in property due to high prices, look foolish. I am desperate for vindication.


Sounds an unhealthy cocktail, desperation mixed with vindication ! :P

I used to think that way too, but then I decided if you can't beat 'em, join 'em....

Am sure there will be a day when high interest rates return, all these things cycle. Might have a while to wait though. You're right some people will surely be found out, and it will also be much desired by retirees/savers who planned to live off their interest that has been eroded by all this stimulus/QE.


The prices have gone up so much, especially in Singapore, that now, I cant even afford them, so the decision is easy :)

If there was no ABSD, I could still afford a $1M condo at these prices, but I will have to put all my savings of the last 10 years of working life, just on the 20% downpayment. I still have about 25-28 years of working life left, its still a damn tough decision


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