Foreign Workforce Numbers

[AngMoG]

Just scraped this off the web, pointed to by another website: MoM Foreign Workforce Numbers

Interesting points to note:
- EP holder population has decreased a little since end of 2011, after growing 60% 2009-2011. The decrease is not significant at this point (1.5% only), but shows that EPs are only being issued at replacement level now.
- Growth in S-Pass and Work Pass population remains unfettered, and S-Pass growth has actually increased since end of 2011. (Which makes sense, since the EP criteria were increased, qualifying many people for S-Pass only that previously fell under EP.) Note that S-Pass quotas have been tightened considerably over the past 2 years or so.
- If you add EP and S-Pass, 2012 halved the net increase of pass holders, and the first half of 2013 decreased the net increase further (by 30% compared to 2012).
- A large part of the "foreign workforce" are WP holders, about 40% of which fall under the FDW and Construction categories.

[the lynx]

Interesting. I would be waiting till next July 2014 to see if there will be any more change to axe this further.

[Wd40]

If you see the % growth in the population of work permit holder(EP+SP) from 2010 to 2011 it is 4.29% and from 2011 to 2012 it is 4.79%.

So the loss in EP holders is more than made up by S Pass holders.

Also the % growth for the 1st 6 months of the year for work permit holders is 1.94%. So this year the rate of growth seems to be reducing.

So net-net its just slowing down a bit and no signs of reversal yet.

You get a better picture if you do a year to year growth. From 2007 to 2008 was big increase 14.91% and the following year it was a dip by 1.57% and next year just a modest increase 1.74%. So the last 2 and half years have actually been quite good in terms of EP+SP holders number's growth.

[AngMoG]

If you see the % growth in the population of work permit holder(EP+SP) from 2010 to 2011 it is 4.29% and from 2011 to 2012 it is 4.79%.

So the loss in EP holders is more than made up by S Pass holders.

Not sure we are looking at the same numbers...

- The increase of combined EP+S-Pass was 23% / 44,900 and 20% / 47,300 respectively for 2009 to 2010, and 2010 to 2011. For 2011 to 2012, it was only 9% / 26,900, and for the first half of the year, it is 3% / 10,000 so far compared to Dec-2012. Keep in mind that 2009 was a year of recession, with very low increase.

Also consider this: in December 2007, there were just 143,700 EP+SP holders, now there are 326,200 - or in other words, more than twice as many.

[Wd40]

If you see the % growth in the population of work permit holder(EP+SP) from 2010 to 2011 it is 4.29% and from 2011 to 2012 it is 4.79%.

So the loss in EP holders is more than made up by S Pass holders.

Not sure we are looking at the same numbers...

- The increase of combined EP+S-Pass was 23% / 44,900 and 20% / 47,300 respectively for 2009 to 2010, and 2010 to 2011. For 2011 to 2012, it was only 9% / 26,900, and for the first half of the year, it is 3% / 10,000 so far compared to Dec-2012. Keep in mind that 2009 was a year of recession, with very low increase.

Also consider this: in December 2007, there were just 143,700 EP+SP holders, now there are 326,200 - or in other words, more than twice as many.

You are right. I goofed up, I used the Work Permit(Total) number that was just below EP and SP, thinking that it was the total of the 2.

[sundaymorningstaple]

So this would easily explain what we already know, by anecdotal evidence, that new passes are being rejected more and more as the exponential growth in EPs & S passes has slowed down meaning they are mostly doing renewals and a few replacements but S passes are being filled up by former Q or P2 pass holders. I don't think we've seen the end of it yet either.

[Wd40]

I think there are lots of new EP holders coming in. Its just that lots more are going out. IT guys in banking is the biggest group moving out of Singapore.

I think its more to do with employers downsizing/moving operations than MoM tightening.

[sundaymorningstaple]

Cart/horse? Downsizing because they can't get the needed help (like my company - down from 225 to currently 165) We've actually cancelled one of our contracts with NEA of all groups, because of MOM. Go figure. Gahmen likes to take from one pocket and put into another, but in this case, MOM is shafting NEA and I've made it known loud and clearly to both who the culprits are.

[AngMoG]

So this would easily explain what we already know, by anecdotal evidence, that new passes are being rejected more and more as the exponential growth in EPs & S passes has slowed down meaning they are mostly doing renewals and a few replacements but S passes are being filled up by former Q or P2 pass holders. I don't think we've seen the end of it yet either.

Yup, pretty much. S-Pass population still growing quite strongly at the moment, but I am wondering how long this can go on, as there are quotas in place which have actually been decreasing, so there needs to be a ceiling at some point. In other words, we would see S-Pass population becoming stagnant at some point in the not-so-far future. The F&B industry is already suffering quite a bit, to my knowledge.

[sundaymorningstaple]

F&B are like my own company, under the Service Quota heading which means capped at 40% total foreign WP & S quota. I've lost a number of S pass holders who were rejected for renewal, some for salary, some for no longer passing the revised criteria. I've also had two who have been given a one year stay of execution by being given a one year renewal and telling them that they will NOT be renewed as they no longer meet the criteria. Tail wagging the dog?

[Mi Amigo]

Conclusion - Whether you're on an S Pass, Q Pass, EP, PR or whatever, make sure you have a Plan B ready. I certainly have. Harder for many under WP, for whom the alternatives are pretty grim.