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sundaymorningstaple
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Intereting stats NOT from Singstat.

Postby sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 10:49 am

Might really be time to look for a back door or Plan B rather soon than later?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/0 ... .55-PM.png

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 11:10 am

What happens if I post on this thread?

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 11:11 am

Answers that, so how did the other two end up looking at the link and posting on the thread without the link? :???:

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Postby AngMoG » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 11:17 am

Weird stuff. In any case, the debt stuff is worrying... but if I remember correctly, it still looks ok if compared globally (e.g., to US :D )

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Postby ScoobyDoes » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 11:25 am

Nice......my PlanB is back to HK.
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Postby Mi Amigo » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 11:44 am

We seem to have two parallel threads going for this topic.
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Postby Wd40 » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 1:54 pm

I am considering converting my SGD holdings to USD and put it into some sort of foreign currency fixed deposit. I have this feeling SGD will crash.

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Postby Barnsley » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 3:13 pm

Wd40 wrote:I am considering converting my SGD holdings to USD and put it into some sort of foreign currency fixed deposit. I have this feeling SGD will crash.


Isnt it Govt policy to have a reasonably strong dollar due to import levels?

I posted the below on the other thread for this topic ....

Just read the article that goes with the table.

none the wiser about what it means.

The table itself makes pretty grim reading but can someone explain in simple English. Shocked
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Postby zzm9980 » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 3:16 pm

funny, we have this article today:

http://www.todayonline.com/business/eco ... mic-growth


Economists raise forecasts for Singapore’s economic growth

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 3:37 pm

I reckon they ought to fire the lot of 'em. Every time they raise the forecast it comes in lower and then they have to trot out all the sad cliches to explain why they weren't able to do their jobs accurately every time. It's rare that you see results that exceeded the forecasters, which tells me that either they don't know their arse from 1st base OR the gahmen tells them to make it optimistic for the peons.

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Postby Wd40 » Wed, 04 Sep 2013 4:18 pm

Barnsley wrote:
Wd40 wrote:I am considering converting my SGD holdings to USD and put it into some sort of foreign currency fixed deposit. I have this feeling SGD will crash.


Isnt it Govt policy to have a reasonably strong dollar due to import levels?



Yes. I think they have some control over it but not total control. If you see the graph, the Sing Dollar has already weakened a bit from 1.2 to now about 1.27. Also the Sing Dollar is managed with respect to a basket of currencies, so if the other currencies of countries that have high trade with Singapore, depreciates against the USD, the SGD also automatically depreciates.

Once the US fed starts it tightening its easy monetary policy, capital will fly out from this region to the US.

The main theme of this thread, i.e. high financial vulnerability of Singapore is actually the main reason why the Singapore dollar wont be looked as a safe haven and could come under attack.

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Some more fuel for the bonfire

Postby sundaymorningstaple » Thu, 05 Sep 2013 1:47 pm

Another interesting read......

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/sing ... nke-12665/


Singapore’s central bank lost 87% of GDP growth fighting Bernanke

Singapore MAS
September 3, 2013
Singapore

A few months ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the country’s central bank, released its annual report for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2013.

And the results were ‘shocking’, at least for those of us who read central bank annual reports cover to cover like a Harry Potter novel.

The bottom line for MAS showed a mind-boggling S$10.2 BILLION loss (roughly $8 billion USD), about as much as General Motors lost in its worst year.

This is the antithesis of what one would expect from Asia’s dominant financial center. And it begs the question– how can a central bank, which has the power to conjure money out of thin air, even suffer a loss, let alone such a heavy one?

Simple. MAS was desperately trying to hold back the Singapore dollar’s rise against the US dollar.

Because Singapore is a trade-based economy and the US dollar is so central in international trade as the world’s reserve currency, MAS has been trying to keep the Singapore dollar somewhat restrained vs. the US dollar.

Essentially MAS was buying US dollars and then intentionally selling them at a lower price in order to create artificial demand for US dollars.

This was a completely failed strategy.

Singapore’s ultra-healthy economy attracts investment from around the world, and the natural tendency is for the Singapore dollar to rise.

This rise has been even more pronounced given Ben Bernanke’s journey into monetary madness over the last several years.

Since 2008, the Singapore dollar steadily appreciated by more than 20% from peak to trough as investors sought a more stable currency alternative. After all, Singapore is a very strong, growing economy with zero net debt.

Because of these factors, MAS lost a prodigious sum trying to prevent its currency’s natural rise; the S$10.2 billion they lost constitutes roughly 3% of GDP.

In fact, Singapore’s economy only grew by S$11.5 billion from 2012-2013… so MAS managed to blow through 87% of the country’s economic growth last year fighting Ben Bernanke. Crazy.

This is something that is clearly not sustainable. And while that term is a bit overused today, such losses cannot continue indefinitely.

A central bank CAN go bankrupt, often creating a major currency crisis. And this is what suggests to me, above all else, that the fiat system is on the way out.

Fiat currency has been the greatest monetary experiment in the history of the world. Four men control over 70% of the world’s money supply, giving them control over the price of… everything.

And this system is so absurd that, healthy nations like Singapore are forced to lose billions in order to keep playing the game.

That’s exactly what it is– a game. Like most nations, Singapore has been playing this game for decades while the US changes the rules whenever it sees fit.

And it’s becoming obvious that the cost of playing is now far exceeding the benefit it receives. The hard numbers are very clear on this point.

This spells one inexorable conclusion: game over.

More specifically, this means a dramatic decline in the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency in the next few years.

And this has far-reaching implications. More on that in a few days.

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Postby ScoobyDoes » Thu, 05 Sep 2013 3:51 pm

All the while the government was saying it would let the SGD appreciate so as to keep inflation in check and keep things affordable.
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Postby Wd40 » Thu, 05 Sep 2013 4:04 pm

ScoobyDoes wrote:All the while the government was saying it would let the SGD appreciate so as to keep inflation in check and keep things affordable.


Yeah, appreciate gradually. They cannot let it just sky rocket. If they did, the exports will collapse and Singapore is a trade surplus economy so its in its interest that the exchange rate is low, just like what Mr Abe is doing in Japan right now.

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Postby AngMoG » Thu, 05 Sep 2013 4:06 pm

mind boggling. Spending so much money with virtually nothing to show for it... :shock:

I think if the SGD appreciates notably, that puts SG in a much worse position; it is expensive enough as it is already.

At least the HKD has weakened quite a bit over the past few years....


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