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JR8
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Postby JR8 » Thu, 08 Nov 2012 7:49 pm

ScoobyDoes wrote:
The large number of shipyards and rig builders etc. over there then is a mirage?


I didn't realise SG was an expensive ship/rig building location. What I had in mind was financial services. But more generally the value of land currently must be peanuts compared to SG, and that translates into potential for corporate profit.


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Postby movingtospore » Thu, 08 Nov 2012 9:00 pm

Yeah, I SP is in trouble, they're just not acknowledging it yet.

Where have they gone wrong? Who knows. They've done a lot right, and should get credit for it. But the gov't seems like a schizophrenic marionette at the moment. And that, I think, is what will drive businesses out more than costs etc - the uncertainty and anti-foreigner hysterics. For a while they can play the card that it's a more livable than HK, more stable than others in the region, etc. But for how long?

Time to buy property in Nusajaya perhaps!

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Postby ScoobyDoes » Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:01 pm

Brah wrote:Last week someone in Japan was telling me that while the mass exodus from Japan (due to the continued high JPY rate) continues and is probably accelerating, if in fact anyone is left there, that one company has said that they will no longer offshore to Singapore and will just move people to HK.

That's one company - if one is doing it, so will others.



I certainly know one major bank has been moving some of their expats from Japan to HK....if it is ongoing, I don't know.


I didn't realise SG was an expensive ship/rig building location.


We know land is expensive but more importantly since SG has basically been the world's largest manufacturer for the rig/boat combination there simply isn't enough of it anyway, even if it was cheap.

Keppel Corp is or was the world's largest rig manufacturer but you have to add SembCorp as well which is or was the world's number two. I have not got very recent figures but the industry grew here because the combination of Singapore/Batam simply works.

In a good comparison, Korea has been the worlds largest supplier of ships through the years but even they have set up facilities, and big ones, in the Philippines as a means of competing with yards in China.
'When Lewis Hamilton wins a race he has to thank Vodafone whereas in my day I used to chase the crumpet. I know which era I'd rather race in.'

SIR Stirling Moss OBE

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Postby nakatago » Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:17 pm

movingtospore wrote:Time to buy property in Nusajaya perhaps!


Malaysia's really taking advantage of the proximity!

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Postby nakatago » Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:22 pm

JR8 wrote:
ScoobyDoes wrote:
The large number of shipyards and rig builders etc. over there then is a mirage?


I didn't realise SG was an expensive ship/rig building location. What I had in mind was financial services. But more generally the value of land currently must be peanuts compared to SG, and that translates into potential for corporate profit.



Singapore's still got the edge in that one (with HK not far behind, anyway) but for other 'industrial applications,' the rest of the region is looking mighty attractive. Potholes on the road and piss-ass public transport are nothing if your (cheap) factory workers live nearby and your rent is peanuts. Industrial parks and 'Economic development zones' are becoming more common: "Hey, we'll give you tax breaks if you build your office/factory here and hire the locals."

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Postby Brah » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 3:29 pm

It's been happening for at least 10-12 years. Started with Credit Suisse IT staff to Singapore, then a lot of those people went back to Japan because they didn't like it here. That was when people actually had some semblance of choice...

The next wave started around 2003-04, and has been continuing. Those are my guesses, I could be wrong on the dates.

The change is that where it was Japan => Singapore, then Japan => Singapore & HK, it appears to be Japan => HK going forward.

That's for the ones who actually saw Singapore as a strategic location - some others like Goldman and Morgan Stanley have to date not really done this.

I see Singapore as a staging ground to centralize and commoditize jobs, then replace internal staff with vendors, then offshore those positions to India, China, the Philippines, and some Eastern Bloc countries, depending on the work.

And that scope of work is expanding - it's not just IT to India, etc. but Equity Research, etc. and I've heard soon trading; some companies like DB have already moved a lot of back-office operations to the Philippines.


ScoobyDoes wrote:
Brah wrote:Last week someone in Japan was telling me that while the mass exodus from Japan (due to the continued high JPY rate) continues and is probably accelerating, if in fact anyone is left there, that one company has said that they will no longer offshore to Singapore and will just move people to HK.

That's one company - if one is doing it, so will others.



I certainly know one major bank has been moving some of their expats from Japan to HK....if it is ongoing, I don't know.

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Postby Callput » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 4:26 pm

Brah wrote:It's been happening for at least 10-12 years. Started with Credit Suisse IT staff to Singapore, then a lot of those people went back to Japan because they didn't like it here. That was when people actually had some semblance of choice...

The next wave started around 2003-04, and has been continuing. Those are my guesses, I could be wrong on the dates.

The change is that where it was Japan => Singapore, then Japan => Singapore & HK, it appears to be Japan => HK going forward.

That's for the ones who actually saw Singapore as a strategic location - some others like Goldman and Morgan Stanley have to date not really done this.

I see Singapore as a staging ground to centralize and commoditize jobs, then replace internal staff with vendors, then offshore those positions to India, China, the Philippines, and some Eastern Bloc countries, depending on the work.

And that scope of work is expanding - it's not just IT to India, etc. but Equity Research, etc. and I've heard soon trading; some companies like DB have already moved a lot of back-office operations to the Philippines.


ScoobyDoes wrote:
Brah wrote:Last week someone in Japan was telling me that while the mass exodus from Japan (due to the continued high JPY rate) continues and is probably accelerating, if in fact anyone is left there, that one company has said that they will no longer offshore to Singapore and will just move people to HK.

That's one company - if one is doing it, so will others.



I certainly know one major bank has been moving some of their expats from Japan to HK....if it is ongoing, I don't know.


Most big banks have muliple low cost locations. For example CS has in Singapore, but also in Warclaw in Poland and Pune in India. Similarly Barclays have in Singapore and Pune in India.

CS are moving their low skill IT staff from Singapore to Pune and also from Lon,NY and CH to Pune and Warclaw, earlier they would have moved it to Singapore instead.

Ditto with Barclays, apparently most of Barclays IT staff have a perpetually open offer to relocate to India.

Then again, I have heard of teams that did do the relocation, had bad results due to lower quality and also very high attrition rates and hence reversing some of it.

None of these banks are going to completely withdraw from Singapore, if anything, you will only see low skill jobs move out to other low cost locations and other high skill jobs that require local presence, coming to Singapore from Lon,NY,CH etc. As business in Asia is growing and most banks want to make Singapore the regional hub for the regional business, you see staff of higher quality here, than average code monkeys. So overall a good thing.

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Postby JR8 » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 6:18 pm

Brah wrote:The change is that where it was Japan => Singapore, then Japan => Singapore & HK, it appears to be Japan => HK going forward.


This used to happen the outfit I worked as well. But it would be when ever a new MD came in and he/she wanted to be seen to be 'taking control/showing authority' blah blah blah.

So they'd move a couple of trading desks and associated specialist back-office staff from Tokyo to SG. Then when a new MD came in say 2 years hence, he'd show 'initiative and ownership' and relo them off to HK. Couple of years later, new MD, 'functional streamlining' this time, they all go back to Tokyo.

For some reason this merry-go-round of vanity and power-politics is indulged...

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Postby Brah » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 9:02 pm

I agree partly with parts of Callput's post, much of it rehashes mine. I don't agree with the 'good thing' bit.

The only non-local bank I know of who has Singapore as their Asia base is SCB, there may be others who are smaller players, but it's HK for the big ones and I don't see that changing.

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Postby zzm9980 » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 9:17 pm

Brah wrote:I agree partly with parts of Callput's post, much of it rehashes mine. I don't agree with the 'good thing' bit.

The only non-local bank I know of who has Singapore as their Asia base is SCB, there may be others who are smaller players, but it's HK for the big ones and I don't see that changing.


Not-quite-a-bank-but-close-enough, Visa Inc has Singapore as their #2 worldwide base.

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Postby Brah » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 9:43 pm

Well you raise an interesting point, I'm not as familiar with non-Finance as I am with Finance companies, I wonder what the spread is for other industries and home base countries in Asia.

And upon learning that, wonder if they are planning the same trend and/or timelines for using Singapore as a staging ground. Or not.

It also depends on what the definition for "Asia" is - for me it's HK / Japan / Australia (though stretching it a bit) / Indonesia / Thailand / Viet Nam / Phillipines / China / Singapore / South Korea / Taiwan (am I forgetting anything? Burma is too early, Brunei I think is mostly Oil & Gas, ...) . I don't include anything Middle East or India in that mix, but that's just my own definition and I don't expect everyone to agree with it.

Agree that SCB is a bit of a special case.

zzm9980 wrote:
Brah wrote:I agree partly with parts of Callput's post, much of it rehashes mine. I don't agree with the 'good thing' bit.

The only non-local bank I know of who has Singapore as their Asia base is SCB, there may be others who are smaller players, but it's HK for the big ones and I don't see that changing.


Not-quite-a-bank-but-close-enough, Visa Inc has Singapore as their #2 worldwide base.

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Postby Callput » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 9:49 pm

Brah wrote:I agree partly with parts of Callput's post, much of it rehashes mine. I don't agree with the 'good thing' bit.

The only non-local bank I know of who has Singapore as their Asia base is SCB, there may be others who are smaller players, but it's HK for the big ones and I don't see that changing.


Well, CS website says Singapore is its Asia hub for PWM and its HK website doesn't say so, can't verify it though

https://www.credit-suisse.com/sg/privat ... ialhub.jsp

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Postby JR8 » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 10:03 pm

Brah wrote:It also depends on what the definition for "Asia" is - for me it's HK / Japan / Australia (though stretching it a bit) / Indonesia / Thailand / Viet Nam / Phillipines / China / Singapore / South Korea / Taiwan (am I forgetting anything? Burma is too early, Brunei I think is mostly Oil & Gas, ...) . I don't include anything Middle East or India in that mix, but that's just my own definition and I don't expect everyone to agree with it.


I'd certainly consider India as part of Asia, so does the Collins dictionary...

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/asia?s=t

... scroll down the page for their definition.

I seem to recall Asia being defined as 'everything east of the Caucuses' (from a UK viewpoint, and use a bit of common sense in applying it).

Australia is Australasia, a separate continent and hence not part of Asia.

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Postby zzm9980 » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 10:04 pm

Brah wrote:Well you raise an interesting point, I'm not as familiar with non-Finance as I am with Finance companies, I wonder what the spread is for other industries and home base countries in Asia.


The company* I currently work for has its Asia / Pacific HQ in Singapore, but I suspect that's quite a bit just due to the legacy from when we had manufacturing here. Now most of the building is call centers. Also, Quite a lot is shifting to China (not just outsourced manufacturing, but proper company operations).



* - I guess we'd be consumer electronics or something, and we're one of the most profitable companies in the world.

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Postby Callput » Sat, 10 Nov 2012 10:29 pm

JR8 wrote:
Brah wrote:It also depends on what the definition for "Asia" is - for me it's HK / Japan / Australia (though stretching it a bit) / Indonesia / Thailand / Viet Nam / Phillipines / China / Singapore / South Korea / Taiwan (am I forgetting anything? Burma is too early, Brunei I think is mostly Oil & Gas, ...) . I don't include anything Middle East or India in that mix, but that's just my own definition and I don't expect everyone to agree with it.


I'd certainly consider India as part of Asia, so does the Collins dictionary...

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/asia?s=t

... scroll down the page for their definition.

I seem to recall Asia being defined as 'everything east of the Caucuses' (from a UK viewpoint, and use a bit of common sense in applying it).

Australia is Australasia, a separate continent and hence not part of Asia.


Depends on which way you are looking at it. For example, most of the Asia specific funds would hardly have any exposure to India, for them Asia is mainly south east Asia and korea. Japan is usually dealt separately as they say Asia ex Japan. As far as investment banking or private banking is concerned, same thing, India is hardly a market for them.

So both from sell side and buy side of the financial world India isn't a significant part of Asia. I think that's where Brah is coming from.

Edit: Here's the definition:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asi ... z2BpZF1cQT


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