Downward pressure on condo rentals?

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nutnut
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Post by nutnut » Wed, 07 Mar 2012 12:12 pm

zzm9980 wrote:You can't get more "data points" than this:

http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/rea ... roller.jpf


URA's search tool to show you all rental and purchase prices in Singapore.
Excellent, thank you!
nutnut

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Post by the lynx » Wed, 07 Mar 2012 1:29 pm

zzm9980 wrote:You can't get more "data points" than this:

http://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/rea ... roller.jpf


URA's search tool to show you all rental and purchase prices in Singapore.
Ooooooh...

Nifty! :)

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Post by Segue » Thu, 03 May 2012 10:11 am

I'm now hearing more and more about a softening rental market. For buying, the top end of the new launches seems to be very slow and re-sales are dead.

I'm hoping that when my lease is up at the end of the year, it will be more of a buyers market.

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Post by volki » Thu, 03 May 2012 6:47 pm

Interesting Link, I've downloaded the recent rental prices pdf as I'm wondering how much is 'negotiable' in the actual listed prices in for eg. .

When they say negotiable, what does that usually mean? If we were going for a $7k Oceanfront 3bdrm in sentosa for rent, could we try and push them down to 6k? or is more or less $100 bargaining room?

Do any of you have any experience in negotiating and how far have you pushed? I understand it depends on the market , but I see SO many empty rentals in one condo and wonder how they can stay empty for that long! Coming from a horrid rental market in Sydney, I find it all abit new as we're used to just getting published rates and even sometimes offering above the published rate!

Thanks for your insights!

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Post by JR8 » Thu, 03 May 2012 7:09 pm

I think it is down to you to know what the comparatives are and so offer what you believe it is worth. With things like the URA site you surely have to be able to get a very good idea. More so than in any other market in the world I can think of. If the landlords don't bite, then walk away.

In SG seeing empty units seems to be an irrelevance. It appears that many landlords (in SG) would rather an empty unit than accepting an offer below their fixed wishes (and so 'losing face' or what ever the hell the tweek in their psyche is).

But the starting point is you knowing your market.

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Post by teck21 » Fri, 04 May 2012 10:23 am

volki wrote: I understand it depends on the market , but I see SO many empty rentals in one condo and wonder how they can stay empty for that long!
As JR put it, counting the number of vacant units is irrelevant.

When mortgage rates hover at around 1%, and property prices don't take a big tumble, they can stay empty for a really really long time.

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Post by Segue » Fri, 04 May 2012 2:43 pm

volki wrote:Interesting Link, I've downloaded the recent rental prices pdf as I'm wondering how much is 'negotiable' in the actual listed prices in for eg. .

When they say negotiable, what does that usually mean? If we were going for a $7k Oceanfront 3bdrm in sentosa for rent, could we try and push them down to 6k? or is more or less $100 bargaining room?

Do any of you have any experience in negotiating and how far have you pushed? I understand it depends on the market , but I see SO many empty rentals in one condo and wonder how they can stay empty for that long! Coming from a horrid rental market in Sydney, I find it all abit new as we're used to just getting published rates and even sometimes offering above the published rate!

Thanks for your insights!
It really depends on where you are in the cycle of the market. When I arrived in 2005, it was pretty much near the end of a long slump and a buyers market. I managed to cut 20% off an asking price and my agent told me that was not so unusual.

A friend of mine who lived after the 1997 crash was telling me as he was leaving Singapore, the owner was even begging him to stay and offered 50% off of a renewal. Those were different times!

It will be harder to negotiate on the early phase of the down cycle as many owners will keep their units empty for a while before the reality bites them. Unless an owner bought the unit in cash and does not understand the time value of money, cash flow ultimately wins. Remember a lot of owners are not the mega-rich but those who have put their life savings into the unit as an investment so they have to pay the bills too. Just recognize there is always a lag as expectations adjust.

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Post by volki » Fri, 04 May 2012 4:46 pm

Thanks for that! It's odd that they hold on to empty units! Seems counter intuitive, I suppose we'll approach and bargain with a number of units within the same condo and have a feel for it.

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Post by Segue » Fri, 04 May 2012 5:54 pm

volki wrote:Thanks for that! It's odd that they hold on to empty units! Seems counter intuitive, I suppose we'll approach and bargain with a number of units within the same condo and have a feel for it.
If you have the time, just approach as many units as possible, do the negotiation such that you put the landlord in the position of countering near your desired price. If they don't, walk and try another.

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Post by Segue » Sun, 12 Aug 2012 8:54 pm

been hunting on the market to move by the end of the year - sadly I'm not seeing the downward trend I was expecting by now :(

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Post by Brah » Wed, 15 Aug 2012 7:41 am

It depends on where you are looking - from what I've been hearing and seeing it is down in most places, a few place not (yet).

We're actively looking now.
Segue wrote:been hunting on the market to move by the end of the year - sadly I'm not seeing the downward trend I was expecting by now :(

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Post by teck21 » Wed, 15 Aug 2012 10:15 am

Yeah it's shocking. I've been comparing URA rental statistics for Q1, Q2 and current asking prices (based on popular websites) and am not seeing any broad based real decline.

Unless of course units are currently being rented out at meaningful discounts to their quoted prices.

The good news is that they definitely don't seem to be on the rise, and going forward, I can't see where up is going to come from.

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Post by wwww » Wed, 15 Aug 2012 10:48 am

teck21 wrote:Yeah it's shocking. I've been comparing URA rental statistics for Q1, Q2 and current asking prices (based on popular websites) and am not seeing any broad based real decline.

Unless of course units are currently being rented out at meaningful discounts to their quoted prices.

The good news is that they definitely don't seem to be on the rise, and going forward, I can't see where up is going to come from.
Prices arent really dropping from what I've seen. They've rented units at my condo for 3k in early 2011, then a unit went for 3.5k mid last year and recently they've rented out a similar unit for 4k.

I wonder when then bubble will burst...

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Post by Segue » Wed, 15 Aug 2012 2:39 pm

I'm thinking there should be a drop coming soon. In the high paying sectors like financial services, hiring is pulling back, immigration has gotten tougher plus the overall economy in the region is slowing down.

I'm now living in CBD for less than $4K a month for a 2BR condo. It was hard to find in 2010 at that rate and I think its going to be just as hard to find now unless there is as significant correction.

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Post by Brah » Wed, 15 Aug 2012 9:56 pm

Unfortunately those are rent prices you've mentioned we now, and for the past few years, have to consider as 'down'.

They may even start to go down, as they have massively in Japan, but probably not for another 1.5-2.5 years here.

What seems to be the good news is a) rents are not getting worse and b) the prices are starting to come down, and will do so more over then next few months.

There is currently massive oversupply in Districts 9 and 10, and soon there will be yet even more new condos ready for renting, there and elsewhere.

Singapore is already past the tipping point for rent prices, and the market, the less numbers coming in, the more numbers going out, make the necessarily high rents unsustainable.

It would seem and I have heard that some landlords are slowly waking up to the harsh facts that Segue mentioned, that there will in fact be less people as firms are offshoring, less people wanting to move here due to the expense and rents, and the shortage of jobs, which is steadily getting more and more worse since the 2008 and 2010 declines, all the financial crises, and corporate scandals.

The smart landlords won't price their apartments out of the market and will get the shrinking tenant base while those that don't will lose face in the long run having lost out to them and having no tenants and having to reduce their prices even further, losing face twice in the process.

Anyone still clinging on to dated fantasies of hordes of rich white 'expats' coming to Singapore is living in an earlier decade. Everyone I know is pushed beyond their budgets and just getting by.

I wish it were better news, but everything pretty much sucks these days and there is no light at the end of the tunnel. And it has only just begun to get worse.

Am just back from a business trip and the unanimous, not most people but everyone I spoke with, are getting out of the businesses they are in and in some cases retiring early. Business levels are not going to come back to what we knew in our working lifetimes.

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