The BillyB, Aster & JR8 roundtable!

[JR8]

Hey Aster, did you get burned by some Greek chick or something? You seem to carrying some baggage there man

[aster]

I wish that were the case.

Every country has a certain percentage of people who are unemployed/on the dole, but Greece seems to be the European Union's "welfare mob," living above their means by having someone else foot the bill. I also believe that by falsifying financial data about themselves the term "benefit thieves" seems quite appropriate, lol...

[JR8]

I wish that were the case.

Every country has a certain percentage of people who are unemployed/on the dole, but Greece seems to be the European Union's "welfare mob," living above their means by having someone else foot the bill. I also believe that by falsifying financial data about themselves the term "benefit thieves" seems quite appropriate, lol...

Yep I'm with you there. What is even more amazing is that they were encouraged to join in the first place. I mean what were Germany/France thinking, apart from scale at any price? The euro is a bit like the eponymous Hotel California, you can check-in any time you like but you can never leave. And so it will be, unless Greece can withdraw and default it will never ever recover. But it won't be allowed to, and to save the illusion of the grand German superstate all the taxpayers in the EU (and that includes me ) are going to fund it into perpetuity. These will be called loans... but there is nil hope of them ever being paid. ... more dominoes will follow...

Did you know that Scotland has over 50% of the population not engaged in any economic activity? Wouldn't mind seeing them financially thrown into the sea as well.

Meanwhile:
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Allied Irish investors face a 90pc 'haircut'
Junior bondholders face losing as much as 90pc of the value of their investment in the debt of Allied Irish Banks as the Irish authorities look to impose more of the cost of rescuing their banking system on international investors.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... ircut.html
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I haven’t had a chance to look into this story, but 90% haircuts, ouch! I wonder who are the major bond-holders who are going to get hit by that. By any chance might it be Germany, who hold the strings on the Irish ‘bail-out’ terms. I.e. improve the terms of our bail-out (that you made intentionally onerous to punish us for our low corporation taxes), or we’ll default on these bonds including the billions held by German banks. Hmmm. I have to say I don’t know why some of the banks weren’t allowed to simply go under, or why bonds were suddenly being made essentially ‘risk free’ by haircuts and default being ruled out.

Meanwhile strong stand-up-for-Britain weasel words from David Cameron who yesterday promised ‘No more direct funding towards EU bail-outs'. The UK gave c. e10bn to Ireland directly, however the UK is bound by EU law to indirectly fund future bail-outs via the EU bail-out fund. No wonder most politicians are loathed.

In other nationalist news.
Italy let in 25,000 Tunisian and Libyan refugees and gave then all EU travel permits (knowing they’d mostly want to head to France). Hey presto France has recommenced border controls with Italy.

Denmark this week is also reintroducing border controls with Sweden and Germany.

Moral of the story, in the EU, when the chips are down, it is look after #1.

[JR8]

Right to script...
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Still, if you think the Bank's [BOE] got problems, pity the eurozone's policymakers. There the difficulties are so intractable that Mr King, when asked about them on Wednesday, was forced to say he'd taken a vow of silence for fear of making them even worse.

For the eurozone, William Hague's powerfully evocative analogy of being stuck in a burning house with no exits has never been more apposite. Having temporarily doused the blaze in Portugal, the fire brigade is now rushing back to the site of the original inferno, Greece, where fresh flames are rising.

There's a strangely Alice in Wonderland quality to it all. Even though the original Greek bail-out has unambiguously failed, policymakers feel they have no option but to chuck good money after bad, knowing that an immediate sovereign debt restructuring and/or departure from the euro would bring even worse chaos, not just to Greece, but to much of the rest of the eurozone.

If Greece goes, Ireland and Portugal wouldn't be far behind, requiring massive recapitalisation of the European banking system, not to mention the European Central Bank, which has taken vast quantities of eurozone sovereign debt as collateral against funding.

The only question now is whether the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) lends a further €50bn, which buys Greece another year, or €150bn, giving it a three year reprieve before it has to return to markets. Either way, the eventual costs of restructuring are going to be ever more concentrated in the hands of the eurozone's more solvent states. The way things are going, there won't be any private sector investors left to burden share with; by the time the losses are crystallised, the great bulk of the debt will be owned by the EFSM and the ECB. A massive fiscal transfer from Germany and its satellites to the periphery will have taken place.

And yet like some unstoppable juggernaut, the process trundles on towards its doom. Despite his troubles, Mr King can at least be thankful he's not part of that particular road crash.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... vails.html

[JR8]

Let's see if I have this about right.

So far this week Portugal has 'been rescued' via a e78bn bail-out, and Greece which is in a worse position than after it's first e110bn bail-out a year ago, has just been given a second e60bn bail-out. My these socialists are good at spending other people's money aren't they!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... risis.html

Call me a cynic but this is no way to run a business.

[Strong Eagle]

Best thing for Greece is to drop the Euro, convert back to a drachma, then devalue it. Nothing will work better.

[JR8]

Best thing for Greece is to drop the Euro, convert back to a drachma, then devalue it. Nothing will work better.

Absolutely.

But it can't as the euro is the EU politician's ego penis-ring (if you will ).

Greece must leave, but is not allowed to leave.

[cue: expensive fireworks]

[aster]

But do they really want to leave given the billions that are being used to bail them out (which everyone knows they will never repay in full) and that more money is probably coming their way?

And how could they convert to their old currency? I mean people will want to keep their Euros safe and sound, I can't see anyone wanting to change their life savings into a junk currency.

[JR8]

But do they really want to leave given the billions that are being used to bail them out (which everyone knows they will never repay in full) and that more money is probably coming their way?

No I expect not, like making a crack-head go cold-turkey. But the point was that withdrawal would be the right thing to do. Decouple and devalue. I was reading recently that when a country’s debt exceeds c. 100% of GDP it is generally considered insolvent, with no hope of returning to solvency. Greece is at something like 150% (?). In basic terms the interest on it’s credit cards is so high that it’s economy can never catch up and start paying off any principle, ever.


And how could they convert to their old currency? I mean people will want to keep their Euros safe and sound, I can't see anyone wanting to change their life savings into a junk currency.

Well that is a good question! You could do a reverse of the Drachma>euro conversion, and set an appropriate FX rate. But as mentioned the process is hideously convoluted (for example any bank/org in the world holding Greek assets would have to go though a conversion process!!), so much so I can’t see it happening. The alt is some kind of two speed euro, they say, though I have no idea how that might work.

I was reading a while back that you can identify PIGS euro notes by the initial letter on the serial number. Maybe I should root out that article again

Greeks won’t want their savings converted to junk. The alternative is that Europe perpetually funds Greece’s very costly vegetative state. Will they be willing to do so in perpetuity though?

[JR8]

Hence my suggestion that you have to be ahead of market expectations. Take out Greece and as you say the dominoes will still fall. Go beyond what the market expects (surprise them by taking out PIG in one go) and you have hope of saving Spain.

But they're politicians, so it won't happen.

I was pondering earlier how the clean out of the PAP top-brass is a parallel to what I described.

Have they gone beyond expectations with the top brass, in order to save the PAP in the longer term?

[BillyB]

I like this thread. It's getting close in terms of popularity with recommendations for Dr Chin's foreskin removal clinic, but still languishing behind what type of eye shadow to wear to secure a job with Singapore Airlines......

[JR8]

You don't sound as if you're fully on board there BB, are you feeling ok?

[BillyB]

You don't sound as if you're fully on board there BB, are you feeling ok?

How could you doubt me? Although I have been somewhat distracted........I'm trying to work out what is going on with the Strauss-Khan debacle, what is going on in Japan, trying understand this global currency war, and, more importantly, when my f*cking silver will recover!!

[JR8]

Might be hard for any arch republicans to swallow.... but here are the latest couple of entries on the Telegraph live commentary on the Royal visit to Ireland...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... pened.html
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17.31hrs
From our comments below - someone called Roberto71 says:

I'm a Dubliner and this has been a momentous trip. On Tuesday evening I rang my mother and she was in tears after seeing the Queen in the Garden of Remembrance. Everybody has been taken aback by how the visit and the Queen have touched the country.

It hasn't just been about her as head of state, it's been about the person as well. The Queen at 85 has shown great stamina and humour and her legendary work ethic as well. She didn't stop smiling it seems and she should be very proud for what she has achieved. Her Grandfather used to be ecstatically welcomed here and now it's come full circle again, this time as equal nations. And a word has to go to the Duke of Edinburgh who is some man for nearly 90 years of age!

They are both a credit to Britain and I and the overwhelming majority of people here have been absolutely delighted with how this trip went. It has surpassed all expectations.

17.16hrs
A palace spokesman has said that the trip has surpassed all expectations:

It's been the most amazing four days. It's had a significance above and beyond a normal state visit. It's one of the most significant visits of her reign, without a doubt.

[revhappy]

but still languishing behind what type of eye shadow to wear to secure a job with Singapore Airlines......

I am still trying to figure out why a seperate subforum for airline careers. Is that the most popular industry here for expats?