The BillyB, Aster & JR8 roundtable!

[BillyB]

The Euro is certainly not dead. The only question is will Greece leave? If yes - then the Euro will be even stronger going forward. There might be a bit of a mess when it happens, but in the long-run Greece doesn't really have an economy that can support the life-style, early retirements, fat pensions, allergies to tax, etc.

Secondly, I'm actually quite certain Greece will stay in the Euro. It's election time in the US so there will be outside pressure to prop up the Greeks and keep things stable, China too does not want to see the global economic outlook nose-dive so if push comes to shove... they too will come running to put out the fire.

If Greeks didn't want to be in the Euro, it would be an entirely different story. But they don't want to leave and go back to their old, dinky little currency...

Of course they don't want to leave - they get free money and don't have to pay it back!

[aster]

You are correct... it might be delayed because of the US elections... but it Greece leaving the Euro is going to happen... austerity is not sustainable... and the debt amounts too large to deal with except by default.

IF the Euro were to inflate by at least 4 to 5 percent per year, and IF Greece were to continue to be bailed out for the next 3 to four years, then maybe not.

I think austerity makes sense in sensible nations, who know the rationale involved with having to work and move forward without bitching about not getting freebies and other handouts from their gov't.

But in nations with a culture of laziness and expecting the gov't to throw money at them... well, that is certainly not going to happen.

[aster]

Of course they don't want to leave - they get free money and don't have to pay it back!

I think the people know that it wasn't the Euro that got them in trouble - it was their own gov't taking advantage of cheap finansing that was available, coupled with criminal forgery and falsifying of financial data that would have landed people in jail had it not been done at an official, national level on behalf of the gov't.

This was a people error, not a currency one. But as you said, most of the euphoria about the Euro in Greece has been about the 'good times' where they could spend money that they would never have to give back simply because they wouldn't be able to anyways...

[zzm9980]

I think the people know that it wasn't the Euro that got them in trouble - it was their own gov't taking advantage of cheap finansing that was available, coupled with criminal forgery and falsifying of financial data that would have landed people in jail had it not been done at an official, national level on behalf of the gov't.

Or that the Greeks (of course not all, but apparently enough) cheat on taxes on a massive scale.

[JR8]

This was a people error, not a currency one.

God you do come out with some bizarre $hit at times

... and how do you parse the situation with a currency created by flawed people?

[aster]

Here we go again...

Nothing flawed with the currency or the people who created it, just the childish media that keeps yapping away about how the Euro is doomed.

Don't make excuses for the Greeks.

They are 100% guilty and fully responsible for their current situation. They can only blame themselves.

[JR8]

Here we go again indeed

Who do you think will bank-roll Spain now that the markets are drying up?

[aster]

Isn't the Spanish gov't about to pump 19 billion into some bank? Reminds me a bit of Ireland's woes...

Seems to me like banks and Greeks have a lot in common, LOL. Both cannot sustain their way of life, both need bail-outs all the time, yet neither of them wants to change!

[Strong Eagle]

Nothing flawed with the currency or the people who created it

On the contrary, the currency is fundamentally flawed. No control over the individual nation's taxes, debt, economy, banks, and financial systems, yet the Euro is somehow supposed to stay in "alignment".

No, on the contrary, the PIGS are simply the end game of a fundamentally flawed economic policy that continues to be propped up... for what end, exactly?

The reality again is that no country will ever pay off its debt. A fact. Therefore, the adjustments required to cure an unsustainable debt load have to take on a face other than austerity, and the sham that somehow austerity measures will somehow cause the debt to be paid down.

Greece is cooked. Those who invested in Greece debt need to say, "buh bye" to all their hard earned Euros... hey... isn't that capitalism at its best... call it wrong and lose?

Only question is... what is the best way to moderate/control the blow up? Conversion to the drachma, followed by currency devaluation seems to be the least disruptive way. Or inflate the Euro. What else?

I have to say, Aster, that I never see you offer an economic theory as to why your views might be the correct ones.

[aster]

And would you say the economic policy of the US is flawed too? Racking up a ridiculous debt, which you yourself have said is now IMPOSSIBLE to pay off, then there's turning on the printing press too...

Over-spending nations who chose to put off reforms due to cheap crediting doesn't mean the whole currency is flawed.

Yeah, they should have reigned them in more, but that would have been politically difficult to do earlier. Maybe they needed one of these hiccups to get the over-spending handcuffs out...

Of course there could be better integration to improve the Euro and there are still things that can be a huge boost, like Eurobonds, but financial discipline should come before such a step. I think it will eventually happen, though I'm hoping for a few more hiccups before then and removal of Greece from the Euro...

As for those calling for a transfer union I don't think that's necessary, the way the EU works already provides absolutely massive funds for less-developed nations to advance more quickly, pumping billions into project from infrastructure to job-creation.

[JR8]

I have to say, Aster, that I never see you offer an economic theory as to why your views might be the correct ones.

....or post a link to an article/analysis/commentary that supports his views.

Mind you it's not too hard to figure out why.

[aster]

....or post a link to an article/analysis/commentary that supports his views.

Mind you it's not too hard to figure out why.

Unlike yourself and all the cut&paste drivel from tabloids about how the Euro is doomed and about to disappear?

Yeah, you've been posting those for as long as I can remember and the Euro is somehow still around. Reminds me a bit of the folks holding signs along the lines of "The end is nigh". Some people never learn, do they?

[JR8]

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'In any case, what about the cost of saving the euro? Yesterday, as a dog returneth to its vomit, the European Commission reiterated its plan for an EU-wide financial transactions tax – 70 per cent of which would fall on the City of London, where most such transactions take place. They want to stick us with the bill to prop up a currency we didn’t join. Yet we have already committed £12.5 billion to the bail-outs. We are, in effect, paying for the privilege of impoverishing our trading partners.

This cannot go on. Eurocrats are treating the tumour instead of the patient. They see the survival of the euro as more important than the prosperity of the people using it. Outside the euro, countries could devalue, price themselves into the market and start exporting their way back to growth, as Britain did when it left the ERM in 1992. This, I suspect, is precisely what the EU elites secretly fear. Europe’s economies would recover; their reputations would not.

Daniel Hannan is a Conservative MEP for South-East England
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ation.html

Meanwhile what's up this week?
Cyprus on it's knees.
German banks downgraded.
Spain admits it can't fund itself
er, and it's only Wednesday.

Viva le Euro, bringing prosperity and joy to the masses!

[aster]

Yeah, other countries could devalue and leave their populations with shittier savings... Whoa, isn't that just what happened with the Pound in recent times? From 2 Euros to a Pound down to... 1.2.

The EU-wide financial transactions tax is a very good idea. Bravo. Hit the shylocks and make them pay.

Didn't they cause the entire crisis in Ireland and numerous other nations? Who needs 19 billion Euros over in Spain? Didn't they need bailing out the world over just to save their sorry, dumb asses? Banks are like Greeks, unsustainable yet they spend, spend, spend... cheat, cheat, cheat... and then fall flat on their face and beg for bailouts when there's no money left.

So now Greeks get a bit of austerity (can't continue to spend what you don't have) and banks get hit with a very fair financial transactions tax which should have been introduced ages ago. Better late than never though.

[JR8]

No, on the contrary, the PIGS are simply the end game of a fundamentally flawed economic policy that continues to be propped up... for what end, exactly?

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08.32 Peter Oborne warns that those financiers who advocated the creation of the eurozone 15 years ago may be unwilling to admit failure, even though remaining in the single currency is no longer a rational choice for many countries:

'For them, the logical step of abandoning the failed policies of the past decade is unthinkable. It would be an admission of defeat and mark the disruption of their demented vision. This means they are determined to reinforce failure. Far from being driven out of public life, which is what they deserve, the creators of the eurozone crisis remain very much in charge of events.'
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt ... -live.html



Meanwhile Spain has buckled and apparently will be seeking a formal bail-out this weekend.



Viva el euro! Bringer of joy and prosperity to everyone it touches.