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The BillyB, Aster & JR8 roundtable!

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 06 May 2011 6:32 pm

BillyB wrote:
JR8 wrote:
Barnsley wrote:Hasn't Spain already "failed" unemployment is nearing 30% and with no signs of it heading in the opposite direction anytime soon.

Its Banks still have Billions on loans on their books for properties that have lost at least 30/40% of the value that the loan is for.

Its all going to end in a very big bucket of tears in Europe worldwide by the look of things sadly.


The bail-outs are just sticking-plasters that will stop the bleeding for a few months.

Despite the bail-out Portugal is going to default on it's debt in the not too distant future, there is no alternative. Greece ditto. I reckon Ireland might be able to avoid if it commences the necessary austerity.

The euro will limp on with these throbbing bubonic boils upon it. The contagion might just stop before Spain, but how is the already gangrenous PIG-meat going to be cut-out?


I heard off a few U.K brokers today that the Spanish Development Minister is trying to flog over 1 million unsold holiday homes on the cheap. Trying to target HNW, banks, special situation funds etc.

Now lets take this step by step. Low interest rates enticed borrowing. The banks threw money at everything and anything that moved that wanted to buy property. Economic downturn. Defaults on home loan repayments. Repossessions galore. Could the banks be sat with a shed load of crap assets on their balance sheets??!!! I believe they are and are trying to flog it off on the cheap to reduce the write-downs.

On a similar note, have you seen the U.S. court ruling that is stopping home repossessions because the court cannot understand who actually owns the property because the debt was sliced up into so many parts!! Oh the irony!!


The UK is hugely indebted (state, corporate and household liabilities). I was reading today that the scale of it is similar to Spain. Hence both have massive sensitivity to rising interest rates. Hence UK rates are not going to rise significantly for the foreseeable.

Spain paid 4.4% on their last auction, 4.5% this time. Analysis suggests 2% higher yields and Spain is finished*. Trouble is Spain don't determine their own interest rates do they, Germany do. But if Spain goes tits up, Germany have to lead their rescue. Certainly one to watch with interest!



* I'll dig out the link if anyone is interested...

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Postby BillyB » Fri, 06 May 2011 7:04 pm

aster wrote:Billy, are we just witnessing a quick hiccup or are things beginning to get awry on a larger scale?


It was quite predictable that after the OBL 'breaking news' that commods would drop sharply and then rebound somewhat. Everyone tries to be one stop ahead but it usually results in all sorts of speculation, shorting and ultimately, if too much is going on, a short squeeze forcing prices back up. The dollar was always going to rise on the back of the news and a rising dollar usually drags oil prices down and that is exactly what happened.

I'm also pissed as my punt on silver lost 10% over the last few days!!

As for the bigger picture - your guess is as good as mine. Any thoughts?

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 06 May 2011 7:11 pm

BillyB wrote:I'm also pissed as my punt on silver lost 10% over the last few days!!


Man that hurts :cry:

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Postby BillyB » Fri, 06 May 2011 7:21 pm

JR8 wrote:
BillyB wrote:I'm also pissed as my punt on silver lost 10% over the last few days!!


Man that hurts :cry:


They say hindsight is a wonderful term.......personally it pisses me off!!

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 06 May 2011 8:51 pm

BillyB wrote:
JR8 wrote:
BillyB wrote:I'm also pissed as my punt on silver lost 10% over the last few days!!


Man that hurts :cry:


They say hindsight is a wonderful term.......personally it pisses me off!!


Particularly when you're merrily nailing some dolly and your broker calls you at 3am to demand a margin call

:lol:

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Postby aster » Fri, 06 May 2011 10:15 pm

When investing in silver are you buying futures for a given date at a set price or are you actually trading today's prices?

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Postby BillyB » Sat, 07 May 2011 12:06 pm

@JR8 - behave, I'm a one woman man!!

@Aster - I hold two stocks. A mining company and a streamer. The streamer uses forward contracts itself to fix the costs across time.

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Postby aster » Sat, 07 May 2011 12:41 pm

Ah, ok, so indirectly investing in silver via a mining company?

Can such moves be done from within Singapore or do I need a trading account in the country in which the mining account is listed?

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Postby BillyB » Sat, 07 May 2011 1:16 pm

aster wrote:Ah, ok, so indirectly investing in silver via a mining company?

Can such moves be done from within Singapore or do I need a trading account in the country in which the mining account is listed?


Yep, I prefer to buy the producing or streaming stocks and take a long view, plus they have a strangle hold over supply which ultimately dictates the silver markets and has forced the price up over the last year - until this week!!

I use Interactive Brokers and Saxo Markets for my online stuff, but there are plenty to choose from and they will all give you exchange and direct market access worldwide so you don't need to hold an account in that Country or rely on a broker to execute your orders for you.

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Postby JR8 » Sat, 07 May 2011 4:01 pm

BillyB wrote:@JR8 - behave, I'm a one woman man!!


So was I when it happened to me. Goddam Japanese equity warrants! :lol:

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Postby JR8 » Sat, 07 May 2011 6:24 pm

Even a "soft" restructuring rather than straightforward default would force holders of Greek debt to write down billions of euros, potentially imperilling Europe's banks again – particularly those in Germany.

LOL! So all in europe must pay to save pain for German banks caused by Germany's EU masterplan.

The cost of insurance against Greece defaulting hit a record high yesterday after reports that it may exit the euro. Greece's Credit Default Swaps costs rose 0.73 of a percentage point, costing $1.37m a year for five years to insure $10m of debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... uring.html

Shall we all give Greece a slo-mo wave? Bye bye Greece! No regrets eh? you had fun while the party lasted! Bye!

:lol:

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Postby BillyB » Sat, 07 May 2011 7:55 pm

JR8 wrote:Even a "soft" restructuring rather than straightforward default would force holders of Greek debt to write down billions of euros, potentially imperilling Europe's banks again – particularly those in Germany.

LOL! So all in europe must pay to save pain for German banks caused by Germany's EU masterplan.

The cost of insurance against Greece defaulting hit a record high yesterday after reports that it may exit the euro. Greece's Credit Default Swaps costs rose 0.73 of a percentage point, costing $1.37m a year for five years to insure $10m of debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... uring.html

Shall we all give Greece a slo-mo wave? Bye bye Greece! No regrets eh? you had fun while the party lasted! Bye!

:lol:


Put your broomstick down and stop stirring the pot you old witch!! Although the price of those CDS are ridiculous. Someones made a killing off them in the last few weeks. Wonder if they'll have enough balls to hold onto them if things really go to shit??!!

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Postby JR8 » Sat, 07 May 2011 8:09 pm

BillyB wrote:
JR8 wrote:Even a "soft" restructuring rather than straightforward default would force holders of Greek debt to write down billions of euros, potentially imperilling Europe's banks again – particularly those in Germany.

LOL! So all in europe must pay to save pain for German banks caused by Germany's EU masterplan.
8
The cost of insurance against Greece defaulting hit a record high yesterday after reports that it may exit the euro. Greece's Credit Default Swaps costs rose 0.73 of a percentage point, costing $1.37m a year for five years to insure $10m of debt.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... uring.html

Shall we all give Greece a slo-mo wave? Bye bye Greece! No regrets eh? you had fun while the party lasted! Bye!

:lol:


Put your broomstick down and stop stirring the pot you old witch!! Although the price of those CDS are ridiculous. Someones made a killing off them in the last few weeks. Wonder if they'll have enough balls to hold onto them if things really go to shit??!!


Hey sorry man I can't help it. It is so much fun watching this slow motion drama unfold :)

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Postby aster » Sat, 07 May 2011 9:57 pm

BillyB wrote:I use Interactive Brokers and Saxo Markets for my online stuff, but there are plenty to choose from and they will all give you exchange and direct market access worldwide so you don't need to hold an account in that Country or rely on a broker to execute your orders for you.


I'll definitely give them a look and hopefully set up an account with them soon. Are there any issues with currency exchange? I take it that investing in a company listed on the ASX would require converting your funds to AUD first? Do they do that for you, at a decent rate?

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Postby JR8 » Sun, 08 May 2011 2:25 pm

aster wrote:
BillyB wrote:I use Interactive Brokers and Saxo Markets for my online stuff, but there are plenty to choose from and they will all give you exchange and direct market access worldwide so you don't need to hold an account in that Country or rely on a broker to execute your orders for you.


I'll definitely give them a look and hopefully set up an account with them soon. Are there any issues with currency exchange? I take it that investing in a company listed on the ASX would require converting your funds to AUD first? Do they do that for you, at a decent rate?


<wince> Are you sure you're qualified to make these kind of investments? Might not an index tracker be a little less hazardous?


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