The 'accidental' downgrade?! I'm not sure what to make of it really. May be politically motivated - a lot of sabotage / rumours happen in Paris, and isn't it the elections coming up soon?JR8 wrote:It's all completely ****ing ****ed! You can pay to stick two trillion ****ing plasters on the thing but it is still completely and utterly ****ing ****ed and it changes ****ing nothing!
I used to live within the minute of the market and think it somehow a pure and all-seeing condenser of the truth.
[Now I'm older, and out of the trading pit, I am in awe at it's apparent madness]
Snort!
The market will catch up with reality in due course. So I'm just going to sit on my hands and wait for that day. No mad rush after all.
p.s. Bunter, what are you hearing about the 'accidental' S&P hit on France. Accident or actual that got slammed back by politics?
BillyB wrote:I have nothing positive to add about the EU.
Nor do I. The sooner it is put down the sooner Europe can recover from this insanely stupid political project.
Meanwhile, no longer playing hide-the-bottle-of-claret I'm coming back for second bite on this...
There is no incentive for investors to buy EU sovereign debt. It's a liquidity risk, counterparty risk and a huge market risk (witness MF Global) as there are no guarantee's on the money being returned in the event of a default, nobody wants to buy it on the open market, it's subject to currency risk, and generally a list of points that should make the informed investor avoid it like the plague. There is no incentive to buy.
Yep, true. I also sense that you cannot believe the facts as they are being presented. I.e. if the EU is threatened with survival would you trust the ECB, or any EU institution, to tell the truth? There is a rumour that S&Ps 'accidental' downgrade of France was no accident, but was reversed via massive EU (i.e. France and Germany) pressure. If that is the case, you might conclude then you cannot trust anything...
Get the ECB to guarantee to buy back all the debt in the event of difficulties and things might change.
In the words of the Sex Pistols 'We already spent it (ha ha ha)'. Or Liam Byrne, outgoing Labour Treasury Minister in his hand-over memo to his successor, 'There's no money left, we spent it all'.
Fact is that the ECB is almost broke, it cannot afford open ended buying, and the market knows this. But but, hold on! We have to take a step back and remind ourselves that this bailing out by the ECB is
- contrary to it's own charter
- 'illegal' under the Lisbon Treaty
- illegal under the German Constitution.
Such 'inconveniences' seem to be simply brushed aside when they get in the way of the EU juggernaut. This is the democratic deficit that Europe currently faces, it is more akin to being run by the the Soviet Politburo.
Also, the CDS's aren't worth the paper they are written on as they have so many clauses inserted as to what constitutes a 'default'. It's great for the writers of these products as they know its a nice cash flow and the governments will not be allowed to fail - the Greek haircut was not technically a default so the CDS's didn't pay out.
Reminds me of the UK MPs expenses scandal, and how many of them claimed to have only made 'technical breaches' of the rules/law.
So from what you say (and I've read about CDSs not being triggered), we seem to have a lot of products not doing what people expected of them. For example sovereign bonds seem to have guaranteed built-in state rescue and therefore would seem to carry nil risk. Same for any EU bank considered 'too big to fail'. What is allowed to trigger or fail? It's moral hazard spreading like the plague, nothing is immune from it.
There has to be intervention to stop the EU collapsing and this plays into the hands of the CDS issuers.
Think Sterling, Soros, ERM. It's a one way play that the stupid EUrocrats set themselves up for.
The government are loading everything onto the citizens,
Er yes of course. The people are the only source of wealth creation. All this magic-money only comes from one place, the people. QE is deferred taxation, spending today what you will earn tomorrow.
and just focusing on the next stage of debt payments when they are due. They are all hoping for a miracle and it's like a giant ponzi scheme with a hot potato - keep on doing the minimum and passing the buck as half of them know they will be out of office when the shitstorm happens.
Yep. And Sarkozy's one and only priority right now is being re-elected in 6mos time. The direction and future of the EU is dominated by the immediate vanities of people like him. And that is precisely why the EU is so completely rogered!
I can see Italy dropping in the next 6 months, which could trigger the meltdown. I think there is general acknowledgment that another huge financial crisis on the cards, it's more a question of when not if.
They've got to rollover e280bn next year and absent the ECB buying it looks like it's going to be at 7+/-% and on double-margin. That is simply not sustainable, and the ECB cannot cover that either. That is why Spain is already the next duck in the row that the gun-sights are focusing on.
Coincidentally I understand that France have to roll-over e280bn of debt next year as well. I have no idea where all this money is going to come from. The Japanese have already been burnt by EU double-dealing and the Chinese won't touch it unless they can buy a 125 year lease of the EU's arse.
You've made many good points, but the one I highlighted in bold is the most interesting on my part. You've got traders who took on large positions in EU bonds (Irish) and shit themselves and tried to unwind at 30/40 cents on the dollar when it went tit's up. The governments wouldn't buy them back. But then in steps the ECB/IMF and protects all institutional investors. So the speculators get par value for their junk bonds and the taxpayers bail them out. What a complete and utter f*ck-up!!JR8 wrote:BillyB wrote:I have nothing positive to add about the EU.
Nor do I. The sooner it is put down the sooner Europe can recover from this insanely stupid political project.
Meanwhile, no longer playing hide-the-bottle-of-claret I'm coming back for second bite on this...
There is no incentive for investors to buy EU sovereign debt. It's a liquidity risk, counterparty risk and a huge market risk (witness MF Global) as there are no guarantee's on the money being returned in the event of a default, nobody wants to buy it on the open market, it's subject to currency risk, and generally a list of points that should make the informed investor avoid it like the plague. There is no incentive to buy.
Yep, true. I also sense that you cannot believe the facts as they are being presented. I.e. if the EU is threatened with survival would you trust the ECB, or any EU institution, to tell the truth? There is a rumour that S&Ps 'accidental' downgrade of France was no accident, but was reversed via massive EU (i.e. France and Germany) pressure. If that is the case, you might conclude then you cannot trust anything...
Get the ECB to guarantee to buy back all the debt in the event of difficulties and things might change.
In the words of the Sex Pistols 'We already spent it (ha ha ha)'. Or Liam Byrne, outgoing Labour Treasury Minister in his hand-over memo to his successor, 'There's no money left, we spent it all'.
Fact is that the ECB is almost broke, it cannot afford open ended buying, and the market knows this. But but, hold on! We have to take a step back and remind ourselves that this bailing out by the ECB is
- contrary to it's own charter
- 'illegal' under the Lisbon Treaty
- illegal under the German Constitution.
Such 'inconveniences' seem to be simply brushed aside when they get in the way of the EU juggernaut. This is the democratic deficit that Europe currently faces, it is more akin to being run by the the Soviet Politburo.
Also, the CDS's aren't worth the paper they are written on as they have so many clauses inserted as to what constitutes a 'default'. It's great for the writers of these products as they know its a nice cash flow and the governments will not be allowed to fail - the Greek haircut was not technically a default so the CDS's didn't pay out.
Reminds me of the UK MPs expenses scandal, and how many of them claimed to have only made 'technical breaches' of the rules/law.
So from what you say (and I've read about CDSs not being triggered), we seem to have a lot of products not doing what people expected of them. For example sovereign bonds seem to have guaranteed built-in state rescue and therefore would seem to carry nil risk. Same for any EU bank considered 'too big to fail'. What is allowed to trigger or fail? It's moral hazard spreading like the plague, nothing is immune from it.
There has to be intervention to stop the EU collapsing and this plays into the hands of the CDS issuers.
Think Sterling, Soros, ERM. It's a one way play that the stupid EUrocrats set themselves up for.
The government are loading everything onto the citizens,
Er yes of course. The people are the only source of wealth creation. All this magic-money only comes from one place, the people. QE is deferred taxation, spending today what you will earn tomorrow.
and just focusing on the next stage of debt payments when they are due. They are all hoping for a miracle and it's like a giant ponzi scheme with a hot potato - keep on doing the minimum and passing the buck as half of them know they will be out of office when the shitstorm happens.
Yep. And Sarkozy's one and only priority right now is being re-elected in 6mos time. The direction and future of the EU is dominated by the immediate vanities of people like him. And that is precisely why the EU is so completely rogered!
I can see Italy dropping in the next 6 months, which could trigger the meltdown. I think there is general acknowledgment that another huge financial crisis on the cards, it's more a question of when not if.
They've got to rollover e280bn next year and absent the ECB buying it looks like it's going to be at 7+/-% and on double-margin. That is simply not sustainable, and the ECB cannot cover that either. That is why Spain is already the next duck in the row that the gun-sights are focusing on.
Coincidentally I understand that France have to roll-over e280bn of debt next year as well. I have no idea where all this money is going to come from. The Japanese have already been burnt by EU double-dealing and the Chinese won't touch it unless they can buy a 125 year lease of the EU's arse.
EU bans claim that water can prevent dehydration
EU officials concluded that, following a three-year investigation, there was no evidence to prove the previously undisputed fact.
Producers of bottled water are now forbidden by law from making the claim and will face a two-year jail sentence if they defy the edict, which comes into force in the UK next month.
x9200 wrote:Fits this thread.
After: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ation.htmlEU bans claim that water can prevent dehydration
EU officials concluded that, following a three-year investigation, there was no evidence to prove the previously undisputed fact.
Producers of bottled water are now forbidden by law from making the claim and will face a two-year jail sentence if they defy the edict, which comes into force in the UK next month.
George Osbourne is banned on here......richie303 wrote:x9200 wrote:Fits this thread.
After: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ation.htmlEU bans claim that water can prevent dehydration
EU officials concluded that, following a three-year investigation, there was no evidence to prove the previously undisputed fact.
Producers of bottled water are now forbidden by law from making the claim and will face a two-year jail sentence if they defy the edict, which comes into force in the UK next month.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/busi ... 111144539/
This fits too
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