[quote="JR8"]Merkel gives a glimmer of hope:
“If the euro fails, Europe fails…”
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The BillyB, Aster & JR8 roundtable!
The circus continues. The Greeks are going to have a referendum on the bail-out terms. Inevitably it is going to be a referendum on being in the euro. The EUrocrats must be spitting out their dummies that the Greek PM has handed this power (and hence uncertainty) to the people lol!
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'Eurozone policymakers will view with horror George Papandreou's decision to hold a referendum on the Greek bailout package. Less than a week after agreeing a "comprehensive" deal to resolve Europe's sovereign debt crisis, the whole thing already seems to be coming apart at the seams. The Greek prime minister's commitment to a plebiscite introduces a further element of extreme uncertainty.
But for everyone, it could also be a blessing in disguise, for a vote on the bailout package would also in effect be a vote on continued membership of the euro. If it went against Mr Papandreou, his government would fall, and given that Greece could no longer deliver on the conditions attached to the bailout, public money to pay wages, pensions and bills would soon run out. The country would descend into chaos.
To restore order, whoever stepped into the ensuing vacuum would have to impose capital controls and leave the euro. It would be a cataclysmic economic event, but very probably better than the death by a thousand cuts that awaits if Greece agrees the bailout. The sudden death of a no vote is what Mr Papandreou will use as his chief weapon in presenting the case for acceptance of the bailout terms. But it is by no means clear he is going to win.
Things are about to get really interesting.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/je ... out-terms/
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p.s. The Slovakians tried just such a tied confidence vote two weeks ago, and it brought down the government. Bring it on in Athens!
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'Eurozone policymakers will view with horror George Papandreou's decision to hold a referendum on the Greek bailout package. Less than a week after agreeing a "comprehensive" deal to resolve Europe's sovereign debt crisis, the whole thing already seems to be coming apart at the seams. The Greek prime minister's commitment to a plebiscite introduces a further element of extreme uncertainty.
But for everyone, it could also be a blessing in disguise, for a vote on the bailout package would also in effect be a vote on continued membership of the euro. If it went against Mr Papandreou, his government would fall, and given that Greece could no longer deliver on the conditions attached to the bailout, public money to pay wages, pensions and bills would soon run out. The country would descend into chaos.
To restore order, whoever stepped into the ensuing vacuum would have to impose capital controls and leave the euro. It would be a cataclysmic economic event, but very probably better than the death by a thousand cuts that awaits if Greece agrees the bailout. The sudden death of a no vote is what Mr Papandreou will use as his chief weapon in presenting the case for acceptance of the bailout terms. But it is by no means clear he is going to win.
Things are about to get really interesting.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/je ... out-terms/
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p.s. The Slovakians tried just such a tied confidence vote two weeks ago, and it brought down the government. Bring it on in Athens!
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'Just imagine it: what would happen if Greece was forced out of the euro, defaulted on its debts, devalued its currency and then began to recover? What sort of lesson would that have to offer the rest of us?'
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janet ... wn-future/
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Precisely. It would create a lesson that 'must not be allowed to happen' in the first place. At all and any cost Greece must be stopped from leaving the euro. Their economy will be destroyed for at least a generation, but that is the price that they must pay for the greater good of the EU.
...
'Just imagine it: what would happen if Greece was forced out of the euro, defaulted on its debts, devalued its currency and then began to recover? What sort of lesson would that have to offer the rest of us?'
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janet ... wn-future/
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Precisely. It would create a lesson that 'must not be allowed to happen' in the first place. At all and any cost Greece must be stopped from leaving the euro. Their economy will be destroyed for at least a generation, but that is the price that they must pay for the greater good of the EU.
Bunter et al,
I'm waiting and seeking an entry point into the market.
I'm expecting at some point the legs to be kicked from under the market. But after the last few days I am wondering what will be required for that to happen.
I mean some of the stuff going on in Europe this week is - take a step back - seriously mental, and yet the markets are giving relief rallies.
I understand market's psych detachment, but in short WTF is opinion on what it is going to take to kick 10-20% out of euro stock markets.... or will nothing?
I feel like the person staring at the unbelievable edifice. Aren't these the things that always inevitably fall... if so, why this time is not ONE person suggesting that it will.
Grr
I'm waiting and seeking an entry point into the market.
I'm expecting at some point the legs to be kicked from under the market. But after the last few days I am wondering what will be required for that to happen.
I mean some of the stuff going on in Europe this week is - take a step back - seriously mental, and yet the markets are giving relief rallies.
I understand market's psych detachment, but in short WTF is opinion on what it is going to take to kick 10-20% out of euro stock markets.... or will nothing?
I feel like the person staring at the unbelievable edifice. Aren't these the things that always inevitably fall... if so, why this time is not ONE person suggesting that it will.
Grr
Nail on head...
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'... Also last night, the chairman of the supervisory board of China Investment Corporation, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, put further distance between China and the eurozone bail-out, saying that Europe’s bloated welfare state meant that people did not work hard enough.
“I think if you look at the troubles which happened in European countries, this is purely because of the accumulated troubles of their worn out welfare societies,”
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'... Also last night, the chairman of the supervisory board of China Investment Corporation, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, put further distance between China and the eurozone bail-out, saying that Europe’s bloated welfare state meant that people did not work hard enough.
“I think if you look at the troubles which happened in European countries, this is purely because of the accumulated troubles of their worn out welfare societies,”
Italian 10yrs hit 6.82%, but almost more importantly deposit (margin) requirements at the clearing house near double to 11.65% - you now have to put down a hefty relative premium to trade this toilet paper. Financially Italy is now 'beyond the point of no return'.
How much is it Italy have to refinance next year, euro280bn?
Hehehe... so it's bye-bye Italy then. To put that on the scale of bankruptcies, Italy are the third largest issuer of debt in the world.
Who's next in line Portugal, or will the market get straight to the point and take out Spain?
p.s. Meanwhile the FTSE rallies 0.5%.... nuts!
How much is it Italy have to refinance next year, euro280bn?
Hehehe... so it's bye-bye Italy then. To put that on the scale of bankruptcies, Italy are the third largest issuer of debt in the world.
Who's next in line Portugal, or will the market get straight to the point and take out Spain?
p.s. Meanwhile the FTSE rallies 0.5%.... nuts!
10.37 [London] BREAKING NEWS
ECB said to be buying Spanish bonds. The bank was reportedly buying Italian bonds earlier.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... -live.html
Oh dear! At some point the ECB are going to run out of taxpayer funded band-aids.
Maybe instead the Franco-German axis should address the causes rather than the symptoms of this $hit-storm, although I doubt it'll happen as that would require accepting the folly of the original plan for a single currency.
ECB said to be buying Spanish bonds. The bank was reportedly buying Italian bonds earlier.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... -live.html
Oh dear! At some point the ECB are going to run out of taxpayer funded band-aids.
Maybe instead the Franco-German axis should address the causes rather than the symptoms of this $hit-storm, although I doubt it'll happen as that would require accepting the folly of the original plan for a single currency.
Well, I think for EU the cost of living will go up significantly.
Property value will come down big time while no one is able to buy because banks don't do mortgages anymore.
But, if you're not losing your job, not planning to sell your house, some things may get a bit more expensive, but it won't hurt you much.
Will it impact me here (EU, NL), probably not too much.
I'll start in SG in January, will the EU situation impact me the.. I don;t know, was hoping get a bit of an idea by asking that question..
Property value will come down big time while no one is able to buy because banks don't do mortgages anymore.
But, if you're not losing your job, not planning to sell your house, some things may get a bit more expensive, but it won't hurt you much.
Will it impact me here (EU, NL), probably not too much.
I'll start in SG in January, will the EU situation impact me the.. I don;t know, was hoping get a bit of an idea by asking that question..
In that some countries will have have to revert to national currencies and they will be devalued I agree that their cost of living will rise significantly.E-CBS wrote:Well, I think for EU the cost of living will go up significantly.
Property value will come down big time while no one is able to buy because banks don't do mortgages anymore.
But, if you're not losing your job, not planning to sell your house, some things may get a bit more expensive, but it won't hurt you much.
Will it impact me here (EU, NL), probably not too much.
I'll start in SG in January, will the EU situation impact me the.. I don;t know, was hoping get a bit of an idea by asking that question..
All the quantitative easing is of course also not 'magic free money', and will have to repaid. Ouch!
p.s. This topic did not originate with consideration to how it might impact Singapore, rather it originated as a discussion centred vaguely in SG about how the euro was inevitably going to implode. So, feel free to mull muse and comment at your leisure!
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