The BillyB, Aster & JR8 roundtable!

[JR8]

and the riposte
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'Not as OTT as you would imagine. That statement needs its translation. " Without the Euro there is no Project ( United States of Europe) and without the Project there is no Franco German axis calling the shots
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The people are not such fools it seems....

[aster]

I reckon the Euro will be stronger without Greece. They are simply just a nuisance and a burden at present, I think things would be much better if the decision was made to dump them. The only issue is that it's never been done before because nobody could have envisioned that a country would fraudulently falsify data on an official, national level, and that an entire nation would rather riot than work.

But when you deal with such people, the only way is... out! Time to stop the bailouts and tell Greece to "walk the plank..."

[JR8]

I reckon the Euro will be stronger without Greece. They are simply just a nuisance and a burden at present, I think things would be much better if the decision was made to dump them. The only issue is that it's never been done before because nobody could have envisioned that a country would fraudulently falsify data on an official, national level, and that an entire nation would rather riot than work.

But when you deal with such people, the only way is... out! Time to stop the bailouts and tell Greece to "walk the plank..."

The politicians won't let them. They're going to try and keep them from defaulting at all costs. So by the time it does get forced out, it is going to go with one hell of a bang!

[aster]

Surely they know they can't keep funding Greece forever, and if they know that sooner or later they'll have to let them go... then won't it be even more costly both financially (the obvious) and politically (I can see the German tax-payers going berserk once they learn how much money has been shifted from their budget to a foreign nation that doesn't even want to get up on its own two feet... and WORK their way out of this - NO PUN INTENDED!)?

[JR8]

[quote="aster"]Surely they know they can't keep funding Greece forever,

You would have thought so wouldn't you? The way I see it there are two possibilities:-
- They genuinely are in denial. Let's face it most politicians are vain and arrogant (Sarkozy being an arch-exemplar of this), so they simply will not accept that their 60 years and ticking pet-project is kaput.
- They know Greece is insolvent, but are keeping it going as long as possible so that the extremely large holdings of Greek debt that German and French banks have can be offloaded in an orderly way.

I've seen both arguments being made.

and if they know that sooner or later they'll have to let them go... then won't it be even more costly both financially (the obvious) and politically

Yes but do you remember the manner in which sterling got spat out of the ERM? They threw billions at the market in blind hope/panic as there was no plan B, but the market got it's way in the end. A tactical withdrawal would have saved a lot the pain that followed.

(I can see the German tax-payers going berserk once they learn how much money has been shifted from their budget to a foreign nation that doesn't even want to get up on its own two feet... and WORK their way out of this - NO PUN INTENDED!)?

The Germans can be a funny lot. I read someone making a reference to why the Germans are not rioting in the streets over constantly having to bail out others (for example 20 years on they still pay a 'reunification tax' alongside income tax), he wrote 'Germans just do as they are told, until it is too late'.

I read last week that if there were an election today that Merkel’s coalition would lose to the Green/centre-left group. But incredibly enough this has more to do with nuclear power than bail-outs (despite Merkel prostituting herself to Green party voters my declaring the phasing out of all nuclear power in Germany. Oh, the irony! )

You mentioned the national scale of the dishonesty carried out by Greece, but I am not so surprised. The EU’s auditors have refused to sign off the accounts in every year of the EU's existence such is the vastness of the fraud going on. Bailing out other countries is not allowed under the Maastricht Treaty... but when EU rules become inconvenient they bend or simply ignore them. Bailing out others is illegal under the German constitution. The IMF lending to insolvent states is not permitted by it’s charter. Put it all together and the EU must be one of the biggest frauds that has ever existed.

[aster]

I think the Sterling came under a well-planned "attack" in a sort of currency war that the other side won - it certainly was a sign that the power of speculative capital that can be focused to target a region, country or particular currency would be a major worry in the future...

Honestly I wonder what goes through a German's mind when he fills out his tax declaration nowadays. Somewhere in the back of his mind he must surely be asking himself, "I wonder how much of that is going straight to the Greeks?"

While over there (when they're not rioting) I can just picture someone partying, getting drunk, and laughing himself silly - flinging a vacuum cleaner over his back and singing "WHO YA GONNA CALL?"

"THE... GERMANS!!!"

[JR8]

I think the Sterling came under a well-planned "attack" in a sort of currency war that the other side won - it certainly was a sign that the power of speculative capital that can be focused to target a region, country or particular currency would be a major worry in the future...

Yes and still the French and Germans did not take this into account when devising the euro. How foolish could they be!?

Oh and I believe that the way the £ got shot out of the ERM was due to the unrealistic structure of the ERM. Hedge funds knew the UK Treasury was obliged to support the £ within the ERM, so it became a no brainer to short it. You can't blame the hedge funds, rather the stupid ERM rules that they exploited.

Honestly I wonder what goes through a German's mind when he fills out his tax declaration nowadays. Somewhere in the back of his mind he must surely be asking himself, "I wonder how much of that is going straight to the Greeks?"

I read that the UK sneaked through a Statutory Instrument this week increasing funding to the IMF by £9bn. That's the equivalent of 1.5p on income tax. That went through with no debate, no vote, nothing. Much of it will end up in the PIGS. How are the people in the UK protesting against that? (answer, not at all)

While over there (when they're not rioting) I can just picture someone partying, getting drunk, and laughing himself silly - flinging a vacuum cleaner over his back and singing "WHO YA GONNA CALL?"

"THE... GERMANS!!!"

LOL
I recall tabloid headline from last year. 'We'll bail you out in return for Corfu' [or similar ]

[JR8]

The euro is responsible for buggering the economy of the PIGS. And now that they're down, what might be the worst economic decision that might befall them?

Why, raising interest rates. AKA sticking the boot right in.

Well, the markets judge that it's gonna happen next month, due to inflation in Germany (are you sensing yet who the EU is set up to benefit?)

p.s. Oh and Moody's have put Italy on their credit watch-list for a downgrade...

So, all going to script really lol...

[JR8]

Euro bailouts drive up our IMF subscription costs by £9.2 Billion

"It's only a contingent liability" they told us. "Bailing out the Eurozone won't cost us real money that might otherwise fund public services."

Oh yes? Then why is the UK having to almost double our IMF subscription from £10.5 Billion to £19.7 Billion?

Yesterday's draft Statutory Instrument on our International Monetary Fund (Increase in Subscription) proposes we stump up "a further subscription of 9,416,600,000 special drawing rights". Published quietly in the House of Commons, it can't hide the fact that that means an increase of £9.2 Billion in real money*.

Remember that next time local services are cut where you live. Think of the tax cuts we could afford with that £9.2 Billion? Or, if you prefer, of the guarantees we could give to maintain public services?

Instead that large chunk of taxpayers' wealth is going to be used to prop up the Eurozone. Is this what the IMF is for?

We borrow money we don't have, to pay vast subs to an organisation not designed to prop up the Eurozone, in order to keep together a monetary union we chose not to join. Who is in charge?

* - value calculated at SDR (Special Drawing Right) conversion rate of SDR1 = £0.98

Posted on 15 June 2011 by Douglas Carswell
http://www.talkcarswell.com/

[JR8]

This mornings Telegraph (the biggest selling broadsheet (i.e.intelligent) paper in the UK)...

What an utter mess.

[BillyB]

Do you think we tempted fate when we started this debate a while back??!!

[JR8]

You could just about imagine a comedy film where a bunch of guys chatting on a forum accidentally cause the downfall of the euro

The films title could be Downfall 2 ...

[BillyB]

You could just about imagine a comedy film where a bunch of guys chatting on a forum accidentally cause the downfall of the euro

The films title could be Downfall 2 ...

A few guys chatting in the Fed caused the credit crisis, so it's quite plausible that a few guys on a forum could bring down the Euro!!

[JR8]

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Why is the EU so determined to do the wrong thing? After all, Greece accounts for less than three per cent of its economy. The answer is the one that Dr Zhivago gives Gromeko when he asks, wretchedly, why the Bolsheviks had to shoot the Tsar: “It’s to show there’s no going back”

[aster]

Greece... exports? What is there, olive oil? The last time I checked they were 66th in the world in terms of exports... that's a long frigging way down the ladder.

I reckon they're finished no matter what, unless it just becomes dirt cheap to travel there to get pissed and have a good time. Though even then they probably aren't going to be able to beat Egypt where for like 500 quid you can fly for a week and stay in a 5-star hotel on an all-inclusive basis.