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The BillyB, Aster & JR8 roundtable!

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Postby JR8 » Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:09 am

If I were Portugese, I would wish that my country had not signed up to a currency that caused perhaps it’s greatest ever downfall.

If the economy is insolvent, it doesn’t really matter what currency the assets are denominated in. The elephant in the room is the crisis has been created by being in the euro.


aster wrote:Yes - like I mentioned, people are sure happy (make that immensely happy :) ) that they have their savings in Euro and not some tiny, dinky, second-rate toilet-paper currency.

But it is being in the euro that has killed them

Then again maybe not everyone, after all they could have a handful of people there like yourself who are on some sort of raging obsessive crusade against everything to do with the EU, Euro, etc. regardless of all facts.

Lol, oh no, I'm just the average Joe on the street! Do remember that UKIP came second in the last euro-elections. What do you make of that? Why do you think the people have not and will not be given a vote on EU membership, apart from that they will reject it? Huh? What do you say? I didn't hear that, did you say something?

As mentioned, you want to look at a different example of another European country that went to economic $shit and was unfortunate enough not to have the Euro... just look at Iceland.

Being in the euro wouldn’t have 'saved' them, with the ‘regulatory arbitrage’ that they were playing on a national scale. Hey, if the euro is so great why is it that no one is allowed to leave?

I bet EVERYONE there wished they had the Euro when the $hit hit the fan. :D

Sure what better than being bankrupt, than being bankrupt and under Germany’s jackboot eh?


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Postby aster » Sun, 12 Jun 2011 6:03 pm

JR8 wrote:If I were Portugese, I would wish that my country had not signed up to a currency that caused perhaps it’s greatest ever downfall.


Well not really, it's access to "low cost" financing that got these sorts of countries into trouble, making it easy for them to live above their means so to speak. Unless what you're trying to say is that if they stuck to their old, crappy currency with high financing costs... then they would not have been tempted to borrow so much? :)

JR8 wrote:If the economy is insolvent, it doesn’t really matter what currency the assets are denominated in.


It makes an enormous difference to the people. They're holding on to Euros, which will keep their worth. Iceland's residents didn't have that sort of "safety net" when their economy fell apart... so everyone's savings were decimated. That's why people there wished they were part of the Euro when the $hit hit the fan, and the first thing the gov't there did was look at how they could join the Euro in the future. :)

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Postby aster » Sun, 12 Jun 2011 6:14 pm

Guys, how about we grab some beers at the Beerfest Asia event coming up just around the corner? :)

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Postby JR8 » Mon, 13 Jun 2011 1:01 am

aster wrote:Well not really, it's access to "low cost" financing that got these sorts of countries into trouble, making it easy for them to live above their means so to speak.


You’re being ‘naughty’ again Aster ;). Either you are intentionally being disingenuous, or you are being rather naive. From before Portugal etc (the PIIGS) entered the euro it was known that their interest rates would be slashed on entry. It was known their borrowing and spending would likely go off the charts. Didn’t interest rates more than half overnight (from something like 9-4% ?) in Ireland? So, they could not have had the euro, but not had the ‘low-cost borrowing’ that came with it, in fact this is of course the whole problem with the euro.... it is one size fits all, but one size does not and never will fit the 17 member countries.

You talk of German economic brilliance, but Germany must have seen the risk of this happening. There were plenty of commentators in the press discussing it at the time, and since. Nobody on the inside of the EU/euro did anything to avert the risks for a full decade and more, until it all went up in flames. Now we’re fire-fighting, but it looks like it is too late to save the edifice.


[quote=”

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Postby JR8 » Tue, 14 Jun 2011 7:09 pm

'Oh woah woah woah! Oh woah Lurkio, where hathst though been? [Lurkio enters stage right].

The Greek tragedy continues!

S&P downgrades Greece to CCC and has them on negative watch... it ain't pretty!

---------
'The yield on 10-year bonds issued by Greece has soared to 16.9pc and the country's sovereign debt is now the lowest rated in the world, ranking below Ecuador, Jamaica and Grenada. The move also impacted Portuguese and Irish bonds, which are also experiencing similar problems to the Hellenic nation.

The downgrade triggered an angry response from the Greek finance ministry which claimed Standard & Poor's decision was made on the back of "rumours and statements by representatives of the European Commission and European Central Bank".

The ministry said: "However, the decision ignores the intense consultations taking place between the same institutions and the International Monetary Fund aimed at designing a viable solution that will cover the financing needs of Greece in the coming years."
[etc]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... fault.html
----------------

Wonder if the IMF has ever loaned money to a sovereign risk rated CCC before? After all it is disallowed by their charter to lend to insolvent states.

Going down!

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Postby BillyB » Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:09 am

Have a read of this article about Groupon, quite an interesting read:

http://www.linkedin.com/share?viewLink= ... HARE-title

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Postby JR8 » Wed, 15 Jun 2011 4:16 pm

BillyB wrote:Have a read of this article about Groupon, quite an interesting read:

http://www.linkedin.com/share?viewLink= ... HARE-title


Interesting article and ironic to see it on LinkedIn. I had never looked into Groupon (or even knew what it was) until you mentioned it a while back.

After reading the above I looked at Groupon London. The deal of the day for west London is tickets to a D-list charity rugby match at Twickenham. There are no other/earlier deals.

The offering for Central London (?) is go-kart racing in Slough!

There is absolutely nothing on their homepage that grabs my attention at all.

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Postby aster » Wed, 15 Jun 2011 7:20 pm

Billy is absolutely right, I too do not get the hype about Groupon. What worth can a company have... of rather the customer database... if they're just people who are out to get something at a fraction of the price? Any restaurant or shop in Singapore will get immensely more attention by giving say DBS cardholders a 50% discount rather than employing Groupon to give a similar offer to its custome.... ahem... make that... scavengers.

I don't see any value in them, but I assume that GS will pump them up nicely before offloading everything.

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Postby JR8 » Wed, 15 Jun 2011 7:35 pm

aster wrote:Billy is absolutely right, I too do not get the hype about Groupon. What worth can a company have... of rather the customer database... if they're just people who are out to get something at a fraction of the price? Any restaurant or shop in Singapore will get immensely more attention by giving say DBS cardholders a 50% discount rather than employing Groupon to give a similar offer to its custome.... ahem... make that... scavengers.

I don't see any value in them, but I assume that GS will pump them up nicely before offloading everything.


Yes, spot on.

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Postby JR8 » Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:57 pm

Wo wo and thrice wo! The tragedy continues....

The tragedy being the slow-motion hatchet job being done on the EU citizenry...

=================
'The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds rose to a fresh high of 17.9pc and the cost of insuring Greek debt against default hit a new record high on Wednesday.

Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) on Greek government debt rose to 1,651 basis points, according to Markit. This means it costs €1.65m to protect €10m exposure to Greek bonds.

The euro also weakened on the failure of eurozone ministers failed to reach agreement on how private holders of Greek debt should share the costs of a new bailout.

Greece is due to receive a €12bn (£10.6bn) injection from the European Union, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the end of June as part of the €110bn bail-out agreed last May.

The plan assumed Greece would be able to return to the markets by 2012, an event many now believe impossible.

As a result the EU is working on a second package which is expected to total €120bn (£106bn) and ensure the country is funded through to 2014. The package would not help reduce Greece's massive €340bn debt load, just give it more time to push through economic reforms.

However, uncertainty over Greece's ability to repay its debts has been compounded by the deep divisions that have emerged over how to move forward, particularly on the question of involving private holders of Greek debt.

News that Moody's rating agency was reviewing the ratings of BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole due to their exposure to Greek debt added to the downbeat sentiment. [Ooh ooh me me teacher I have a question!! Why are France so keen on everybody else in Europe (and the IMF) being forced to pay to keep Greece afloat?]

"The problem is not the fact that Greece is likely to face some form of a default. The problem is that the debate over the involvement of private investors in the rescue scheme drags on, making market participants jittery," said Teppei Ino, a currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... ament.html

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Postby BillyB » Thu, 16 Jun 2011 12:23 am

JR8 wrote:Wo wo and thrice wo! The tragedy continues....

The tragedy being the slow-motion hatchet job being done on the EU citizenry...

=================
'The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds rose to a fresh high of 17.9pc and the cost of insuring Greek debt against default hit a new record high on Wednesday.

Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) on Greek government debt rose to 1,651 basis points, according to Markit. This means it costs €1.65m to protect €10m exposure to Greek bonds.

The euro also weakened on the failure of eurozone ministers failed to reach agreement on how private holders of Greek debt should share the costs of a new bailout.

Greece is due to receive a €12bn (£10.6bn) injection from the European Union, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the end of June as part of the €110bn bail-out agreed last May.

The plan assumed Greece would be able to return to the markets by 2012, an event many now believe impossible.

As a result the EU is working on a second package which is expected to total €120bn (£106bn) and ensure the country is funded through to 2014. The package would not help reduce Greece's massive €340bn debt load, just give it more time to push through economic reforms.

However, uncertainty over Greece's ability to repay its debts has been compounded by the deep divisions that have emerged over how to move forward, particularly on the question of involving private holders of Greek debt.

News that Moody's rating agency was reviewing the ratings of BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole due to their exposure to Greek debt added to the downbeat sentiment. [Ooh ooh me me teacher I have a question!! Why are France so keen on everybody else in Europe (and the IMF) being forced to pay to keep Greece afloat?]

"The problem is not the fact that Greece is likely to face some form of a default. The problem is that the debate over the involvement of private investors in the rescue scheme drags on, making market participants jittery," said Teppei Ino, a currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... ament.html


Can you hear the dominoes ever so slightly rocking in Europe??!!

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Postby JR8 » Thu, 16 Jun 2011 12:37 am

BillyB wrote:Can you hear the dominoes ever so slightly rocking in Europe??!!


'George Soros blames officials as Greek crisis escalates
Billionaire investor George Soros has criticised international authorities for "not providing a solution" for the European debt crisis as Greek sovereign bond yields were pushed to record levels again.'
[Telegraph, today,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8575905/Geroge-Soros-blames-officials-as-Greek-crisis-escalates.html ]

No no, nothing to see, move along please!

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Postby aster » Thu, 16 Jun 2011 11:55 am

And the Greeks are back out on the streets rioting and clashing with police in a protest against... having to work. :D

I say let them collapse and kick them out of the Euro. This isn't a place that you can help pass through tough times and that will get back on its feet. This allergy to work needs some shock treatment and nothing else will work I'm afraid.

A bail-out is supposed to be a one-off, something that will fix an issue and everyone will be better off. But with Greece it's beginning to be quite clear that there will need to be "perpetual bail-outs", so maybe they should stop calling them that and just state that Greece's budget will be permanently sponsored by other European nations. Period.

Of course in Europe there is a direct correlation between the average number of sunny hours and the level of work allergy, and PIGS is a good indication of that.

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Postby JR8 » Thu, 16 Jun 2011 7:22 pm

aster wrote:And the Greeks are back out on the streets rioting and clashing with police in a protest against... having to work. :D

Yes, I watched that with some wonder. I mean what do the people attacking the police demand as an alternative to being bankrupt?


I say let them collapse and kick them out of the Euro. This isn't a place that you can help pass through tough times and that will get back on its feet. This allergy to work needs some shock treatment and nothing else will work I'm afraid.

As I posted a couple of weeks back...
'Rehn [German minister]: I do not see a withdrawal from the monetary union as a serious option. It would harm the Greek economy and be a setback for European integration. The euro is more than a currency; it's the central political project of our community. For this reason, too, we would not accept a Greek withdrawal.'

Interesting isn't it how vocal German ministers are getting about this crisis. I mean in comparison you hear nothing at all from the Brits. One might almost think the Brits are in denial or wishing the issue would just go away.


A bail-out is supposed to be a one-off, something that will fix an issue and everyone will be better off. But with Greece it's beginning to be quite clear that there will need to be "perpetual bail-outs", so maybe they should stop calling them that and just state that Greece's budget will be permanently sponsored by other European nations. Period.

A debt transfer union? Well, that is the logical end-point of where the EU is, must, be heading. It's hardly news

Of course in Europe there is a direct correlation between the average number of sunny hours and the level of work allergy, and PIGS is a good indication of that.

So one wonders why Germany welcomed then in in the first place eh?


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Postby JR8 » Thu, 16 Jun 2011 7:32 pm

'A Greek, Portugese, Irishman and German are in a bar.

The German pays for all their drinks.....


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