I use www.tradingeconomics.com for a quick scan of overall figures. Also keep an eye on Bbg, CNBC, Reuters etc. Market commentary is generally a good indicator.JR8 wrote:What do you suggest is the most useful day-to-day tool for Joe Public to monitor stress within the Spanish economy? CDS px's, 10-year yields?
10 year notes are always a good place to start to find the general benchmark / sentiment. The problem I have with CDS (they should in theory be a good measure) but given they are mostly OTC it's difficult to find transparency because the large banks are so dominant in the pricing, and are usually acting in their own interests that it can drive prices to artificial levels.
With Spain, I haven't dug really deep so far but would like to. I'd be looking closely at the unemployment rate which is very high. I would also keep an eye on inflation which is creeping up. And also be getting concerned with interest rate increases and also increased capital requirements for the banks. Budget deficit is running around -10% which is worrying. How do you generate more revenue from the unemployed? And do companies get squeezed more in taxation to compensate when growth is already quite worryingly low. How do you stimulate recovery in that scenario?
I'd also be very keen to see the financial statements of some of the Spanish banks to see what they are holding in terms of bad debt and how they plan to play the balancing act of increasing capital requirements, attracting fresh inflows and return on capital without taking unnecessary risk, managing write downs and without asking for help.
The next 3 months should be interesting!!