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Postby ksl » Fri, 01 Apr 2011 8:46 pm

BillyB wrote:
ksl wrote:
BillyB wrote:Looks like Portugal is going to be next to tumble and need bailing and very soon. They have a mountain of debt due in the next few months and not enough cash to cover the positions. And they have just been downgraded to BBB- (the lowest investment grade available) making them a risky proposition in the bond space - prices getting hammered and yields climbing because no one wants them.

Gee's, the E.U is looking so appealing at the moment!!
Spain is yet to follow i guess! Not followed it for a while, but it is expected.


I'm on the fence about Spain. It looks to be almost bailing itself out with a lot of cuts but no-one, apart from Aster of course who knows everything about the E.U, really knows the state of the banks positions - they are loaded with all types of debt on their balance sheets that cannot easily be valued by its sheer complexity, same as with the CDS situation in the U.S.

Portugal could be the domino about to tip and open the floodgates and scrutiny into some of the other member economies. Most likely to be the banks getting visitors from the E.U auditors to see if they can support another collapsed economy or have enough safeguards in place. Ireland is stress testing things at the moment.
My wife's Singaporean brother in law is an ex banker, and through his grape vine, Spain will probably fall too. These are delayed reactions to the economic collapse and have been anticipated, we were discussing it sometime last year due to outstanding mortgage debts among other debts and financial scandals, and cover ups were quite obvious at that time. China can bail them out :lol: if they take all the pirate goods :lol:

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 01 Apr 2011 8:51 pm

News today... the Irish need another e24bn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... eeded.html

Oh and I'm sure Aster will enjoy reading an opinion piece on quite how stuffed and lame-duck Merkel and Germany now are, following this w/e's regional elections in Der Farterland
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... reach.html

The EU is finished, the protracted death-throws are just an extremely expensive vanity exercise by the politicians.

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Postby BillyB » Fri, 01 Apr 2011 9:22 pm

ksl wrote:
BillyB wrote:
ksl wrote:
BillyB wrote:Looks like Portugal is going to be next to tumble and need bailing and very soon. They have a mountain of debt due in the next few months and not enough cash to cover the positions. And they have just been downgraded to BBB- (the lowest investment grade available) making them a risky proposition in the bond space - prices getting hammered and yields climbing because no one wants them.

Gee's, the E.U is looking so appealing at the moment!!
Spain is yet to follow i guess! Not followed it for a while, but it is expected.


I'm on the fence about Spain. It looks to be almost bailing itself out with a lot of cuts but no-one, apart from Aster of course who knows everything about the E.U, really knows the state of the banks positions - they are loaded with all types of debt on their balance sheets that cannot easily be valued by its sheer complexity, same as with the CDS situation in the U.S.

Portugal could be the domino about to tip and open the floodgates and scrutiny into some of the other member economies. Most likely to be the banks getting visitors from the E.U auditors to see if they can support another collapsed economy or have enough safeguards in place. Ireland is stress testing things at the moment.
My wife's Singaporean brother in law is an ex banker, and through his grape vine, Spain will probably fall too. These are delayed reactions to the economic collapse and have been anticipated, we were discussing it sometime last year due to outstanding mortgage debts among other debts and financial scandals, and cover ups were quite obvious at that time. China can bail them out :lol: if they take all the pirate goods :lol:


Watch this space eh!!

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Postby ksl » Fri, 01 Apr 2011 11:20 pm

BillyB wrote:
ksl wrote:
BillyB wrote:
ksl wrote:
BillyB wrote:Looks like Portugal is going to be next to tumble and need bailing and very soon. They have a mountain of debt due in the next few months and not enough cash to cover the positions. And they have just been downgraded to BBB- (the lowest investment grade available) making them a risky proposition in the bond space - prices getting hammered and yields climbing because no one wants them.

Gee's, the E.U is looking so appealing at the moment!!
Spain is yet to follow i guess! Not followed it for a while, but it is expected.


I'm on the fence about Spain. It looks to be almost bailing itself out with a lot of cuts but no-one, apart from Aster of course who knows everything about the E.U, really knows the state of the banks positions - they are loaded with all types of debt on their balance sheets that cannot easily be valued by its sheer complexity, same as with the CDS situation in the U.S.

Portugal could be the domino about to tip and open the floodgates and scrutiny into some of the other member economies. Most likely to be the banks getting visitors from the E.U auditors to see if they can support another collapsed economy or have enough safeguards in place. Ireland is stress testing things at the moment.
My wife's Singaporean brother in law is an ex banker, and through his grape vine, Spain will probably fall too. These are delayed reactions to the economic collapse and have been anticipated, we were discussing it sometime last year due to outstanding mortgage debts among other debts and financial scandals, and cover ups were quite obvious at that time. China can bail them out :lol: if they take all the pirate goods :lol:


Watch this space eh!!
I watched a documentary on the pirate goods market, Chinese from Fujian, infiltrated Europe through illegal immigration, and have set up factories in home, with literally thousands of $ of equipment to carry out the piracy from inside the EU and also in USA too, the estimated cost of lost revenue, in UK alone was estimated at several billion. Famous brand names like TOP SHOP even copy the latest fashion from the cat walk, that normally costs hundreds of £ can be purchased for £50 to £80, Nike and other top brands have just given up pursuit, as soon as they close one, another one opens.

The amounts are very significant has the money flows back out of the Country into China, this is communism at its best and no one can do much about it. The amounts lost are staggering and unbelievable, how they have silently invaded the Western markets with illegal factories for fashion garments of all kinds.

The US and Europe are at the mercy of the mainland, so badly, that I hate to think what may develop. Libya was taken for no other reason than to control the flow of oil, through the pipelines to there delivery destinations, the economic fall out of the delivery oil would have sever effects on the oil price. There is economical worries everywhere just now!

Only the ASEAN Countries are relatively untouched, with signs of significant growth. The competitive market unfortunately includes China and Russia too, with there political idealism, with oil being delivered through to Europe from Russia puts Europe at a disadvantage, without Libya oil.

The bigger picture is politics, military strategy and commerce combined, though many do not see it. The situation in UK is in dire straights it's weak and defenceless, it has no Navy at present, that can launch aircraft, so they having to rely on allies in Europe for strategic operations until they can afford their new naval ship. China is investing heavy in military upgrades too, along with the US, the Brits have to save up first :cry:

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Postby aster » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 12:03 am

JR8 wrote:Dealer is caught with £50,000 of cocaine, crystal meth, cannabis and ecstasy... and judge frees him


Is that the EU's fault too? Are they intervening in the UK's sentencing guidelines now? :)

JR8 wrote:In a nutshell Portugal is finished. Germany, cough I mean the EU, is going to force it to borrow it's way out of it's crisis.


Oh yeah, finished... gone... wiped off the map. :roll: Let the Germans handle it, they're the fiscal masterminds of this continent and although I have a significant bias against them I think it's fair to give credit where credit is due...

Portugal will be given a helping hand, and rightly so, because that's how things work with regards to the Euro-zone - things don't fall apart like a house of cards at the first tremor...

JR8 wrote:The EU is finished...


Geez... does this come under skipping one's medication or being part of a cult where this belief is the main building-block of one's fixated outlook?

JR8 wrote:Yes I agree the USSR is a better comparison to the EU.


:o

BillyB wrote:And they have just been downgraded to BBB-...


And we all give a flying monkey because we have more than 0.01% trust in rating agencies? :) They're about as credible as banks are nowadays... just a bunch of manipulative thieves...

BillyB wrote:...apart from Aster of course who knows everything about the E.U

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Postby aster » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 12:05 am

JR8 wrote:Dealer is caught with £50,000 of cocaine, crystal meth, cannabis and ecstasy... and judge frees him


Is that the EU's fault too? Are they intervening in the UK's sentencing guidelines now? :)

JR8 wrote:In a nutshell Portugal is finished. Germany, cough I mean the EU, is going to force it to borrow it's way out of it's crisis.


Oh yeah, finished... gone... wiped off the map. :roll: Let the Germans handle it, they're the fiscal masterminds of this continent and although I have a significant bias against them I think it's fair to give credit where credit is due...

Portugal will be given a helping hand, and rightly so, because that's how things work with regards to the Euro-zone - things don't fall apart like a house of cards at the first tremor...

JR8 wrote:The EU is finished...


Geez... does this come under skipping one's medication or being part of a cult where this belief is the main building-block of one's fixated outlook?

JR8 wrote:Yes I agree the USSR is a better comparison to the EU.


:o

BillyB wrote:And they have just been downgraded to BBB-...


And we all give a flying monkey because we have more than 0.01% trust in rating agencies? :) They're about as credible as banks are nowadays... just a bunch of manipulative thieves...

BillyB wrote:...apart from Aster of course who knows everything about the E.U


Um, no, just enough not to cry and wail when the benefits to EU citizens are so plainly obvious.

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Postby JR8 » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 2:23 am

aster wrote:
JR8 wrote:Dealer is caught with £50,000 of cocaine, crystal meth, cannabis and ecstasy... and judge frees him


Is that the EU's fault too? Are they intervening in the UK's sentencing guidelines now? :)

Now now. If you're keeping up you will know that that was a side-conversation on this topic. But as it happens the EU is by definition designed and overrule domestic policies. I mean one only has to look at the recent case of the ECHR demanding (contrary to domestic law) that prisoners in the UK must be given the vote.

Given that the Marxist EU state seek to streamline everything across the continent, it would seem a logical hop, skip and jump to harmonise sentencing. I mean we wouldn’t want someone being sentenced to 20 years for heroine dealing in Turkey, but let off in the UK (just because they are filled up with foreigner/refugee criminals and hence are out of jail-space) would we?



JR8 wrote:In a nutshell Portugal is finished. Germany, cough I mean the EU, is going to force it to borrow it's way out of it's crisis.


Oh yeah, finished... gone... wiped off the map. :roll:

So what is your position? That Portugal is currently in good shape? That Portugal is an international pariah and on the rack for some imagined reasons? That Irelands cash-call of e24bn today (just today) that equates to a quarter of their entire GNP is a passing inconvenience? And where is all this money going to come from, a magic money-tree? Don’t you see that pretending money comes out of nowhere, and ultimately is not owned by the citizens is what got us into this trouble in the first place?


Let the Germans handle it, they're the fiscal masterminds of this continent and although I have a significant bias against them I think it's fair to give credit where credit is due...

Fiscal masterminds? Hmmm. Even if I squint really hard I am unable to see what this might mean. Are these perhaps the same masterminds that puts PIIGS into a fiscal straight-jacket with artificially low interest rates, and is now responsible for ramming our money down their throats trying to keep their project on the rails?

p.s. If credit is due to the Germans, why would the majority of them vote to leave the EU if they were given a vote?


Portugal will be given a helping hand, and rightly so, because that's how things work with regards to the Euro-zone - things don't fall apart like a house of cards at the first tremor...

JR8 wrote:The EU is finished, it’ll only stay standing as long as there is political means to throw the required hundreds of billions at it...


On the contrary, in fact bailing out other countries is illegal under the German constitution. You’re almost suggesting that the Germans are acting through some great selfless nobility lol. As opposed to forcing all Europeans who would never vote for the EU in the first place to pay for propping up their toxic and primitive project.


Geez... does this come under skipping one's medication or being part of a cult where this belief is the main building-block of one's fixated outlook?

I’m sorry, are you talking to me? .

JR8 wrote:Yes I agree the USSR is a better comparison to the EU.


:o

Yep, and that is why the people must never be allowed a say. In the EU democracy is something to be terrified of. And the same reason why the EU’s auditors have refused to sign-off on their accounts in the 15 odd years of it’s existence

BillyB wrote:And they have just been downgraded to BBB-...


And we all give a flying monkey because we have more than 0.01% trust in rating agencies? :) They're about as credible as banks are nowadays... just a bunch of manipulative thieves...

I do, and you should, since we’re paying for it. Like it or not Portugal are going to be paying something like 8% to refinance debt in coming months. They cannot afford to do this. Germany is not legally allowed to help. Merkel is now so emasculated (lol) she cannot (despite wanting to). How about you suggest what the following steps will be? . This chaos is all down to politicians. Even Merkels recent off the cuff comments about bondholder haircuts probably cost taxpayers at least e20bn alone as the market was sent spiralling. German 'fiscal brilliance' in action? Forcing banks to lend to people who could not afford to repay loans (Clinton and the ACORN loans), and now we’re full circle all over again, the taxpayer funding massive bank capitalisation while the screaming popular headlines demand that banks be forced to lend money again

BillyB wrote:...apart from Aster of course who knows everything about the E.U


Um, no, just enough not to cry and wail when the benefits to EU citizens are so plainly obvious.


So why is it so reviled? Ok, let me try and help you towards an answer ‘It is because the EU citizenry are not very clever, and so they need Marxist politicians who live in palaces – none of whom have ever had real or productive jobs - to forcibly take most of their wealth and make all their decisions on their behalf. Am I getting warmer?

Anyway, the EU is a one-size-fits-no-one 1940’s solution to a problem that does not exist. Run around like the boy with his fingers in the dyke wall, but the show is over. It does not take someone with even a passing knowledge of economics to see that you cannot take countries like Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, force them to half their interest rates overnight in their already hot economies, and not foresee them imploding. ...And yet you point the finger at ratings agencies and bankers lol?

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Postby BillyB » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 9:23 am

aster wrote:
JR8 wrote:Dealer is caught with £50,000 of cocaine, crystal meth, cannabis and ecstasy... and judge frees him


Is that the EU's fault too? Are they intervening in the UK's sentencing guidelines now? :)

JR8 wrote:In a nutshell Portugal is finished. Germany, cough I mean the EU, is going to force it to borrow it's way out of it's crisis.


Oh yeah, finished... gone... wiped off the map. :roll: Let the Germans handle it, they're the fiscal masterminds of this continent and although I have a significant bias against them I think it's fair to give credit where credit is due...

Portugal will be given a helping hand, and rightly so, because that's how things work with regards to the Euro-zone - things don't fall apart like a house of cards at the first tremor...

JR8 wrote:The EU is finished...


Geez... does this come under skipping one's medication or being part of a cult where this belief is the main building-block of one's fixated outlook?

JR8 wrote:Yes I agree the USSR is a better comparison to the EU.


:o

BillyB wrote:And they have just been downgraded to BBB-...


And we all give a flying monkey because we have more than 0.01% trust in rating agencies? :) They're about as credible as banks are nowadays... just a bunch of manipulative thieves...

BillyB wrote:...apart from Aster of course who knows everything about the E.U


Um, no, just enough not to cry and wail when the benefits to EU citizens are so plainly obvious.


Aster.......I think you safely claimed the award for best question dodger on the forum. You keep repeating the same one liners to every post you make. Germany is great, banks are thieves, conspiracy theories, throw a few personal digs in at people etc. But you never tell us why. You haven't given one shred of evidence to support your points. Your replies are schoolboy in their nature and show a real lack of commercial understanding, and even a basic grasp of economics.

Debating with you is like trying to talk with my GF when she gets a sulk on because the latest handbag is out of stock, or if she thinks her ar*e looks big in something, or when the football is on. Actually, that is giving you too much credit - she knows when she is fighting a losing battle and will pipe down!!

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 9:50 am

Ouch.

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Postby aster » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 10:37 am

Billy Boy, when is the last time you made a single, sensible argument to support the childish "oh no the EU is so bad, blah, blah, blah... I don't like it, blah, blah, blah" kindergarden song that you keep repeating in every other post? The last time I checked you had trouble countering even the most basic of arguments "taken straight from a GCSE handbook." :D

Lack of commercial understanding? LMAO. Yeah, borders, tariffs, limits, various currencies, no common specifications and standards, etc... yeah, I'm sure those are all so great for commerce and the economy. Even a kid at the Nintendo stage of evolution knows better... :roll:

You reckon the UK would benefit by exiting the EU? Ask your GF, I'm sure even she knows better! :)

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Postby aster » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 11:07 am

JR8 wrote:p.s. If credit is due to the Germans, why would the majority of them vote to leave the EU if they were given a vote?


I think given a vote they would prefer something else: kicking the likes of Greece out of the EU. Germany is also benefiting greatly by being part of the EU, but I'm sure that people are pissed off with countries like Greece living on "borrowed time" and expecting Germany to foot the tab. The word "bailout" surely brings about stomach convulsions over there amongst the general public...

JR8 wrote:As opposed to forcing all Europeans who would never vote for the EU in the first place to pay for propping up their toxic and primitive project.


Actually it's the best thing to have happened to Europe over the last decades, and you'll hardly find a sensible person who would want their country to leave the EU. Sensible people aren't suicidal in nature. The benefits for people are plain and obvious, and likewise the positives for trade and commerce are equally transparent.

Ask anyone about the economic impact of reverting to borders, tariffs, limits, and other trade inhibitors... then ask them to imagine a US divided like this... and the only cop-out answer they'll mumble will have nothing to do with economics but will simply be a one-line, nonsensical response about cultural differences or the fact that "we still hate each other". :)

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Postby BillyB » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 11:18 am

aster wrote:Billy Boy, when is the last time you made a single, sensible argument to support the childish "oh no the EU is so bad, blah, blah, blah... I don't like it, blah, blah, blah" kindergarden song that you keep repeating in every other post? The last time I checked you had trouble countering even the most basic of arguments "taken straight from a GCSE handbook." :D

Lack of commercial understanding? LMAO. Yeah, borders, tariffs, limits, various currencies, no common specifications and standards, etc... yeah, I'm sure those are all so great for commerce and the economy. Even a kid at the Nintendo stage of evolution knows better... :roll:

You reckon the UK would benefit by exiting the EU? Ask your GF, I'm sure even she knows better! :)


This is like pulling teeth. All you want to do is fan the flames by mentioning one word points that a school kid could quote on here. For the second time, what am I dodging? You mean your pointless question about America - shows your grasp of cross border economics and keeping to the point in question doesn't it? I haven't lived or worked there or studied the country to a level that allows me to think I know everything. Plus I still fail to see the relevance of the comparison and think I never will.

I'm not alone in my childish views - open your eyes and read the news, check the market commentary. The E.U is floundering and is practically on it's arse. If you were commercial (by that I don't mean knowing everything about policy we can all learn stuff like parrots - I meant using it in a real life scenario such as setting accurate bond prices, practicalities in assessing credit risk, looking for opportunities to re-balance investments given the safe havens of bonds aren't as appealing as they used to be, testing different equity ideas - you'd realise that market confidence and sentiment is flagging and flows are being pulled out Europe. That's a more realistic indicator of general opinion.

And of course my GF knows better than me - don't they all??!! You should try getting one - blow up dolls don't tend to argue back so much.....

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 11:26 am

:quarrel: :boxing: :shooting: :oops!: Image :shit:

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Postby BillyB » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 11:29 am

sundaymorningstaple wrote::quarrel: :boxing: :shooting: :oops!: Image :shit:


Oi, stop stirring the cauldron and join in the debate!!

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Sat, 02 Apr 2011 12:21 pm

I'm not here for either side. I'm just enjoying the game........ :cool:


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