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How do you look at china and future of china

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Postby nakatago » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 10:12 am

The only thing I think is attractive about China right now is that huge potential market. Problem is, you set up shop there, you need to partner up with a local firm...which will eventually steal your business/IP and kick you out.

[citation needed] tough.

About language, the new generation is also so enamored about Western culture...and a lot of them also go abroad to study, to work, etc...which eventually exposes them to things the oligarchy is keeping them from knowing about when they were in the middle kingdom.

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Postby Expat_guy » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 11:26 am

Vaucluse wrote:
ScoobyDoes wrote:
revhappy wrote:USSR was supposed to supersede US. It failed and Russia is a mess now.
Japan was supposed to supersede US. It failed and is in a mess as well.


The difference is that neither Russia or Japan had a worldwide domination before, at any point in history. China once, and will again, be the most powerful /influential country/power on the plant as it was once before.... dynasties ago.

Everything goes in cycles no matter the length. The Chinese were once top of the world


I must have missed that in history books . . . when exactly was China the most powerful/influential country in the world? Chinese power was always centred on their own little area, with their own people - until they invaded Tibet and the like.

The Great Leap Forward? Rough estimates of 45 million dead over four years?
The Cultural revolution? Government estimates of 30+ million deaths?

China is becoming too expensive a country for manufacturing . . . what will happen when these factories move to cheaper labour countries?

The country/city - poor/wealthy divide? Massive

Mandarin as a lingua franca? :lol: Even the local Chinese prefer to educate their children in English . .

Mandarin is too difficult to learn, even for Chinese . . . and as for China itself? It can't even get their own population to learn Mandarin.

1.3 billion people? India has almost that . . . So what!


I would say, India has a much better chance than china if their leaders plan well. India has the advantage of language and democracy. Only drawback is corruption, which even china have.

If and when china becomes democratic, Tibet and muslim majority provinces may secede and may have problems in inner mangolia and few other parts. Land mass is concerned, china is thirce as big as India. China has only 12 % of arable land where as India have 55%. If the crops fail due to drought of any other factors, china has to depend on foreign market for food supply which may have its own drawbacks.

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Postby Vaucluse » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 1:11 pm

Expat_guy wrote:I would say, India has a much better chance than china if their leaders plan well. India has the advantage of language and democracy. Only drawback is corruption, which even china have.

If and when china becomes democratic, Tibet and muslim majority provinces may secede and may have problems in inner mangolia and few other parts. Land mass is concerned, china is thirce as big as India. China has only 12 % of arable land where as India have 55%. If the crops fail due to drought of any other factors, china has to depend on foreign market for food supply which may have its own drawbacks.


India does have a better chance, I'd agree . . . it isn't the deathly poor country that it used to be and the Indian diaspora are coming back and pouring both their wealth and knowledge into the place.

I just returned from a business trip there are and was well impressed. China? :roll: Try to find someone who speaks English there . . . India? Pretty much everyone.

Land mass? Look at Australia to see how much land mass has to do with power and influence.

A very good point about China imploding if ever the place becomes a democracy . . . it will splinter into a dozen separate countries . . . and the current leadership won't allow that to happen . . .
......................................................

'nuff said Image

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Postby ksl » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 1:13 pm

nakatago wrote:The only thing I think is attractive about China right now is that huge potential market. Problem is, you set up shop there, you need to partner up with a local firm...which will eventually steal your business/IP and kick you out.

[citation needed] tough.

About language, the new generation is also so enamored about Western culture...and a lot of them also go abroad to study, to work, etc...which eventually exposes them to things the oligarchy is keeping them from knowing about when they were in the middle kingdom.


The only thing I think is attractive about China right now is that huge potential market
This is quite right, language, it's only very important for western families that are dedicated in getting a piece of the action in the consumer market!

Vaucluse is right, manufacturing will become too expensive and moved to other Countries, from China with the expertise of Chinese labour, as long as they do not have the technological ability for power, they are at the mercy of those that have it. Though industrial espionage is always active at a price. The 1.3 billion people are far from becoming a part of the market economy, they are slaves of their own people, illiterate and a long way from establishing themselves. Though from a business point of view China is the major market for all Asian Countries as the west, & USA have limited spending power. All Asian markets are seeing growth.

Though the biggest threat of all just now is the Middle East, which could swing either way in terms of who's stealing the power from who, if the wrong people get in, look forward to more wars and unrest. The west is screaming democracy, yet the terrorist are waving there guns, foreign mercenaries are active, even a problem for China in Urumqi region

And for all its worth, those that do not understand Chinese at the table of business, will get ripped off big time, one reason to get involved in the language of commerce......The laid back attitude of westerners that are bigots really don't deserve to move forward trading nations are just that, traders, hardly interested in super powers or wars, they are the ones that have foresight in learning languages for a reason of integration and understanding culture. Hardly the racists that are foolishly driven by nationalistic pride and confusion, though the balance is relative for good to prevail.

Successful business in China, is almost not heard of, unless you have a good understanding of Chinese culture and network with the right people. Even successful MNC have their problems of transferring technology and wealth into an unstable environment.

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 1:25 pm

The only way to infiltrate western businesses is to learn English. The Chinese, as pointed out, are learning English in droves. Why? To learn the West's ways and weaknesses and infiltrate as ksl has said until they can either buy the businesses, or create their own copycats that can produce cheaper and faster. At the end of the day, the West is the one who is going to lose if they don't do the same in order to remain competitive, or at least be able to see the whole thing coming down on their heads. If the west thinks they have a thousand years, they are already doomed. The Chinese aren't learning English because of wanting to speak the language, but it's a tool for them to beat us. And beat us they will, unless we wake up.

Good example, Chinese came to the US and built the railways. Today, we are still riding on much of their work of 100 years or so ago. Meanwhile, they took the technology they got from here and today their trains are running at 450km/hr. And us in the US? AMTRAK! :cry:

Today, the Chinese are rapidly becoming like the Japanese were in the 1950-60's, They adopt some from the west, adapt it for their own purposes, and be come adept and both using and producing it, far better and cheaper that the west can do.

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Postby Eau2011 » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 1:55 pm

ksl wrote: The fact that Taiwan is well infiltrated by mainland Chinese and Singapore too, is the planting of seeds for the future as I see it, there will be little one can do, though I only see conflict by those that will never be communist of which numbers we do not know. Though China will be more difficult to take if the communists are smart enough to phase in democratic rule and free speech, that will happen in my opinion and the credit will be to the communist party of uniting there brothers and sisters against the world. Interesting stuff the Taiwanese Chinese and mainland with a Brit in the middle, I know when to shut up :roll:


Taiwan und Hongkong are the only places left in China where people still have their human rights, freedom of opinion and democracy. And we do hope it will be kept so. I was in Taipeh in 2006 during the period of the movement "Million Voices against Corruption, President Chen Must Go", my impression (also by visiting Taiwanese Forum) was most Taiwanese don't want the unification if they have to live under one party dictatorship.

Hmmm....credit against the world? In my opinion they will live with the world peaceful, because then China shares the same universal values with most of the rest of the world.

ksl wrote: You have many valid points however empires are not built on small quibbles and speeches at Universities, it's done with an Iron fist like Rome did, and the Brits did. I'm sure China is well aware of its troubles, as it would have fallen along with Russia, but the mentality and focus is very different, they are adapting to evolution and change, democracy and free speech is the only way to save credibility of the communist party, so its more to do with patience building empires that suit all walks of life, in my opinion.

All the small ranters of equal rights may well have cause, but no real leverage at this time...just stamp on them or lock them up is the easiest, until it becomes a need for change.


The speech was given by a very famous Twainese writer. She has a lot of followers in China. She gave the message to the students in Peking Uni., the young generations respect her and accept her ideas. Chinese young generations haven't experienced all those movements after 1949, not like their parents. More and more of them got courage and they keen on independent thinking. Everyday many people bypass the Great Firewall to get more information... e.g. my friend in Shanghai, she's well informed and does have her own opinion.

We no longer live in the time of Roman Empire or British Empire. Iron fist does not work out anymore in the 21st century. Humans learnt from their history. Peace which currently most of us are enjoying now is still not long, only 60-65 years.

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Postby Vaucluse » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 2:02 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:The only way to infiltrate western businesses is to learn English. The Chinese, as pointed out, are learning English in droves. Why? To learn the West's ways and weaknesses and infiltrate as ksl has said until they can either buy the businesses, or create their own copycats that can produce cheaper and faster. At the end of the day, the West is the one who is going to lose if they don't do the same in order to remain competitive, or at least be able to see the whole thing coming down on their heads. If the west thinks they have a thousand years, they are already doomed. The Chinese aren't learning English because of wanting to speak the language, but it's a tool for them to beat us. And beat us they will, unless we wake up.

Good example, Chinese came to the US and built the railways. Today, we are still riding on much of their work of 100 years or so ago. Meanwhile, they took the technology they got from here and today their trains are running at 450km/hr. And us in the US? AMTRAK! :cry:

Today, the Chinese are rapidly becoming like the Japanese were in the 1950-60's, They adopt some from the west, adapt it for their own purposes, and be come adept and both using and producing it, far better and cheaper that the west can do.


The Chinese are learning English because it is the main language of commerce outside of China . . . and thinking it is because of some notion that they want to take over? :) Too many spy novels behind the grassy knoll, SMS?

Trains? Very few train lines were built by the Chinese and even fewer Chinese labourers went back . . . as for 'their' 450km/h trains . . . they are German and French :wink:

People are so scared of China . . . the place will implode sooner rather than later . . . although for us I can only hope it will be later
......................................................



'nuff said Image

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Postby Eau2011 » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 2:08 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:The only way to infiltrate western businesses is to learn English. The Chinese, as pointed out, are learning English in droves. Why? To learn the West's ways and weaknesses and infiltrate as ksl has said until they can either buy the businesses, or create their own copycats that can produce cheaper and faster. At the end of the day, the West is the one who is going to lose if they don't do the same in order to remain competitive, or at least be able to see the whole thing coming down on their heads. If the west thinks they have a thousand years, they are already doomed. The Chinese aren't learning English because of wanting to speak the language, but it's a tool for them to beat us. And beat us they will, unless we wake up.
:mrgreen: I don't know how the kids are taught nowadays. But at my time, it was said that English is a skill for better surviving in the future competition in the job market. Well I see Germans and French are doing the same, at least 2 or 3 foreign languages. SMS, are you a bit exaggerating? :P

Good example, Chinese came to the US and built the railways. Today, we are still riding on much of their work of 100 years or so ago. Meanwhile, they took the technology they got from here and today their trains are running at 450km/hr. And us in the US? AMTRAK! :cry:

Today, the Chinese are rapidly becoming like the Japanese were in the 1950-60's, They adopt some from the west, adapt it for their own purposes, and be come adept and both using and producing it, far better and cheaper that the west can do.

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Postby Eau2011 » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 2:17 pm

Vaucluse wrote: Trains? Very few train lines were built by the Chinese and even fewer Chinese labourers went back . . . as for 'their' 450km/h trains . . . they are German and French :wink:

People are so scared of China . . . the place will implode sooner rather than later . . . although for us I can only hope it will be later


If you are talking about maglev train in Shanghai, 450km/h. That's made in Germany by Siemens and TyssenKrupp.

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Postby nakatago » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 2:27 pm

Eau2011 wrote:If you are talking about maglev train in Shanghai, 450km/h. That's made in Germany by Siemens and TyssenKrupp.


...which the Chinese probably have already copied.

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Postby ksl » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 2:47 pm

EAU2011:We no longer live in the time of Roman Empire or British Empire. Iron fist does not work out anymore in the 21st century
This maybe true, but I can guarantee that more people will die, than is necessary to prove your point.

China will kill as many as possible to hold onto communism, as it is better off with more dead, than it is with more breeding. Democracy always comes at a price, though my bet is that the leaders in power, are already aware that Communism is outdated, hence the fall of Russia, so the new Chinese have to be patient, or strategically clever to persuade the phasing in of democratic measure to satisfy all. It can be done just as the market economy was phased in.

That is why i say, the Chinese cannot be classed as the same as Russia or any other communistic state, the ruling party are already showing evolution in a foxy type of way to survive.

I'm married to Taiwanese so I know very well what they stand for, I lived in Taiwan from 2000 and was actually on the street at the time of voting, of the Kuomintang and Chen.

My daughter is of course mixed and must understand her roots, and be proud of her heritage, Taiwanese are excellent people, and they will not give in to the pressures of a dictatorship.

I myself do not take authority very well, unless i have respect for those dishing it out, so I'm always referred to as the rebel, even while serving 10 years in the military and 4 years as a cadet, I know the difference between being bullied or not, and i'm always game for a fight with a bully, it's kind of satisfying to know you don't give in, even if you may lose a round or two.

And us in the US? AMTRAK!
UK too haven't developed :oops:

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Postby Eau2011 » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 3:13 pm

ksl wrote: My daughter is of course mixed and must understand her roots, and be proud of her heritage, Taiwanese are excellent people, and they will not give in to the pressures of a dictatorship.


I have read the book "big river and big sea, 1949", after that I could understand more Taiwanese (both local Taiwanese and immigrants from mainland China after 1949). That's really a good book! I appreciate Ms. Long wrote that book so that we can understand the history much better from other pespectives. History is always written by the victors. In this case, both governments (PRC and RC) did the same.

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 3:54 pm

Eau2011 wrote:I don't know how the kids are taught nowadays. But at my time, it was said that English is a skill for better surviving in the future competition in the job market. Well I see Germans and French are doing the same, at least 2 or 3 foreign languages. SMS, are you a bit exaggerating? :P


Personally? I hope I am. But I'm old enough to remember when the same was said about learning French back in the early '60's (I hated that subject with a passion and still do). Today, France is a backwater who cannot control it's farmers or truckers and likes to provide shelter for disposed dictators. But they got fast trains too. Not AMTRACK! :x

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 3:57 pm

nakatago wrote:
Eau2011 wrote:If you are talking about maglev train in Shanghai, 450km/h. That's made in Germany by Siemens and TyssenKrupp.


...which the Chinese probably have already copied.


Which is my whole point. Adopt, adapt, adept. Wanna bet they bought two and are in the process of reverse engineering it?

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby tyianchang » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 4:03 pm

Plavt wrote:
tyianchang wrote:
Thanks for the recommedations. I'm all too familair with the China flop stories and China bashing. I will get the writers from the other side of the coin for you - in goodtime.


Might be an idea if you did actually read those books instead of making an opinion based on conjecture. Neither David Bonavia nor John Frazer were indulging in 'China Bashing' as you so blithely assume.
Frazer was merely observing some economic,social and technical facts along with misunderstandings of westerners.

Mao may have done some good but the fact remains he was a dictator who caused division and hatred amongst his own people not too mention the facist government that resulted. Did you know Jian Qing had a whole public park closed just so she could ride her horse there in private? Maybe that is something else you call equals? :roll:


Read acrefully before you lash out. I was making a general remark that in no way implied either Bonavia or Frazer. To me, writers who have not lived through or read of the harrowing grinding lives of the mainland Chinese for 2.5 centuries cannot really understand the context for the way its politics have been shaped. Mao was as much a dictator as the imperial context of China set him up to be - in actaul fact, if you read the writings of those close to Mao, he was compassionate, always against killing, and wanted democracy for China, but it's impossible to be a dictator in modern China. Mao worked with his group of veterans who sacrificed their own lives and families to put China on its feet. Like everything else, there were good and bad in the party but Mao gets the blame i.e. unless one researched for the truth.
You'd agree China is an ancient civiisation so the people are bonded through their language, history and culture That is an iron mass that is landlocked in geophysical terms but can also be mobilized. That is the Chinese cycle.
I'm not a mainland Chinese myself but an avid reader since a child, have British missionary friends, Chinese/ students friends, been there twice and have researched libararies and written about it.
Regarding national leaders, it's too easy to blame whoever leads. It makes common sense that even in a small country like Sri Lanka, nothing is ever in black and white; to take it to the extreme. not even for you or I as individuals. For me, Mao was and is loved by many Chinese . They recognise his unfailing love for humanity in an old China torn apart by internal strifes and foreign brutality. I won't go into his biography - but he is even blamed for famines that occurred , and China had had huge disastrous famines, floods, earthquakes and such like natural disasters even before his time. In fact, other leaders made revolution in his name, and of course, Jian Qing was a power mad radical and nothing like Mao's first wife who was killed by the nationalist. Chinese love Mao for he was incorruptible - he sent his own son to the front instead of setting him up with business ties/concessions like Deng Xiao Ping. Mao was born in the earth bound honest peasant soil of Hunan while Deng Xioa Ping was from the balmy south of commercial Canton.
China is a country full of hard core selfish family centred warlords and such like feudal lords who never forgive Mao for turning their aristocratic middle kingdom into an egalitarian country. And it's full of greedy and impatient peasants wanting to get rich quick too. The middle clsses - educated, well read and professionals are, to my mind, rather malleable, quirky and sentimental, but on the whole quite stable. Judging from the spills out of the current ME crisis, boy do we all need countries to be stable.
What's the alternative to a strong and stable China, regardless of the teething problems that need time to resolve? From this discussion and the lessons learnt from the last UK elections, I'm beginning to wonder if western style democary will work for China with its billions + population. Will it continue to work for the US and UK either, with its diminishing numbers of natives and increasing numbers of immigrants???
I just find it personnaly difficult to decide which candidate to vote for the council - how much do we know of this person? So we vote for the party as usual and as usual, politicians are not to be trusted.
More than anything else, the Eurovision song contest and its tactical voting, should make us rethink the outdated concept of democarcy from the ancient Greeks. Free speeech, yes but volatile changes of governments and constitutions forced on by sheer numers? What's demoracy without nationhood, trust, security and justice ?
Last edited by tyianchang on Tue, 22 Feb 2011 5:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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