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How do you look at china and future of china

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby tyianchang » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 7:28 pm

x9200 wrote:
Eau2011 wrote:
tyianchang wrote: Regarding democracy - as a side track, I'd been talking to my Bulgarian and other Eastern Europeans about their lives in the communist days and the post 80s democratic makeover. Most of the people complain about job insecurities, high level unemployment and an increasingly unffordable life. I was told many look back to the old days when a job was for life, unemployment unheard of everyone was not short of the basic things. Apart from this, the crime rates shot up when there was hardly any crime before.


I lived in a country where east met west.

I talked to some people who were from east Germany. Yes they did have a job before the German reunification. But the full employment was artificial. The work needs probably only two, 10 will work for it, so everybody has a job. It would not work out in the long term.

And above all it was and still is about work attitude and mentality. If your job is secured for ever who cares about product quality and job efficiency? Well, this is precisely what has changed and the whole generations are in big troubles trying to find themselves in reality that does not fit what they are used to.


That was exactly what China faced. It used to be a joke among our journalist friends who tried to book for a hotel room only to be turned out even though the huge hotel was almost empty because the lazy receptionist did not make any profits for herself and has a 'rice bowl' contract. Also, the China Tourist Office was almost always "Closed for business." But in China, the change was gradual, beginning with profit incentives etc before the closing down of communes. It'll be great to find one open today - I believe there are a few.
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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby tyianchang » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 7:36 pm

Plavt wrote:
tyianchang wrote:
Business, commerce and technology are as ancient to China as the Silk Road. Ksl, Mao started the Great Leal Forward during which time the blueprint for today was laid -


You might care to read up on that statement; what Mao started was a 'Great Flop forward. Examples are collecting just about all the available steel in the country and mixing it to make various items or implements. However, the practice resulted in a impure steel which was brittle and of little or no value to industry. In addtion he destroyed much of the country's heritage, along with stock piling grain which yields no intersest. Have a look at John Frazer's* 'The Chinese' which is rather old now and may be difficult to acquire. David Bonavia write's a similar account under the same title.

*Formerly the correspondent for the Toronto 'Globe & Mail.'


Thanks for the recommedations. I'm all too familair with the China flop stories and China bashing. I will get the writers from the other side of the coin for you - in goodtime. The positive things eg. Mao sending young cadres to plant rubber in Hainan island for future industrial use, I heard first hand from Chinese students. They have done many other similar 'useful' projects; I remember there's a Mao saying about useful and useless things too. The lessons from the great leap forward were not just in making steel - China's got one of the largest steel factories in the orld today; it's about changing the peasants' mindset too, as well as forming co-ops and working as a team.
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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby JR8 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 7:48 pm

tyianchang wrote: I'm all too familair with the China flop stories and China bashing. I will get the writers from the other side of the coin for you - in goodtime. The positive things eg. Mao



His rule led to c.50 million Chinese deaths, and you're talking about 'positives'.

Breath-taking! :shock:

p.s. What next, the positives of Hitler's rule?

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby tyianchang » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 7:54 pm

Eau2011 wrote:
tyianchang wrote: Regarding Tiananmen - it's similar to the present protest in Bahrain in the sense that the students began to arm themselves and initiated the horrid crackdown by throwing fire at the passing army tanks - on BBC records. They were not that peaceful as we'd like to think.

Then, when democracy was much talked about, most Chinese say 'no two Chinese ever think alike' and in China, many Chinese make their own laws anyway - so I gather, it'll take people to learn to respect their laws and the constitution before democracy can offer a peaceful alternative.


I've read many books and seen enough videos about it, I have heard real stories from friends who have experienced it. The students were not prepared for the army at all. What they've heard is always "PLA is our own army", they were told to love their army from the childhood. Then saw the tanks coming...I can really imagine how they felt. Military with tanks killing his own people is crime, no doubt. Till now CCP still did not give any statement about it and still censored it in the internet and media.

How can you expect this nation (government/party) to take responsibilty for the world if they even don't take responsibility for its own people?

People learn to respect law and the constitution?? Just ask CCP cadres to learn first! God knows how many things they did are against laws and constitution. The problem is not Hu or Wen, is those cadres in the provinces, in the cities and all over China. Hu or Wen can do nothing to them, too far from their control.


We watched and discussed the whole Tiananmen demo intensely in the UK - in schools (!- the longest peaceful demo in history that went on for months),among China hands and reporters, both Chinese and foreign and with Chinese students and the embassy. This might surprise you, but there were Iranians, Iraqis involved in supporting the students or the government.
The BBC showed when trouble first erupted with students throwing fire grenades on a tank , and setting buses with soldiers inside, on fire. That's when the protest bacame a struggle for power .Then the army cracked down - personally, I abhor the killings but equally, I'm not fooled by the student leaders who were arrogant and demanded but refused to listen or accept. They were talking to veterans who had sacrificed not only their lives but that of their families in the war with the Japanese and the nationalists.
Yes, I agree some of the cadres are corrupted and China is far from perfect as there're cases in the abuse of power. But which country is perfect - easier for smaller countries like SG and Switzerland.
China is so big, as you said, it's not the problem with Wen or HU - they try their best, but it's true what I said about the arrogance in some Chinese that they're a law unto themselves; that's why some people even question if democracy is the better solution at all.
Can we get away from the cruel reality that some innocent people have to suffer at the expense of real evil e.g. at the other extreme of personal liberty and humanitarian concerns as in the UK, people get 10 years for manslaughter when they actually murdered or extremists can sue the government for a couple of millions (at a time when the country has a national debt of running into trillions?).
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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby Plavt » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 9:17 pm

tyianchang wrote:
Thanks for the recommedations. I'm all too familair with the China flop stories and China bashing. I will get the writers from the other side of the coin for you - in goodtime.


Might be an idea if you did actually read those books instead of making an opinion based on conjecture. Neither David Bonavia nor John Frazer were indulging in 'China Bashing' as you so blithely assume.
Frazer was merely observing some economic,social and technical facts along with misunderstandings of westerners.

Mao may have done some good but the fact remains he was a dictator who caused division and hatred amongst his own people not too mention the facist government that resulted. Did you know Jian Qing had a whole public park closed just so she could ride her horse there in private? Maybe that is something else you call equals? :roll:

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Postby JR8 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 9:24 pm

Are we witnessing first hand the Red-Tide of the 50C Army? :)

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby Eau2011 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 10:03 pm

tyianchang wrote:
Eau2011 wrote:
tyianchang wrote: Regarding Tiananmen - it's similar to the present protest in Bahrain in the sense that the students began to arm themselves and initiated the horrid crackdown by throwing fire at the passing army tanks - on BBC records. They were not that peaceful as we'd like to think.

Then, when democracy was much talked about, most Chinese say 'no two Chinese ever think alike' and in China, many Chinese make their own laws anyway - so I gather, it'll take people to learn to respect their laws and the constitution before democracy can offer a peaceful alternative.


I've read many books and seen enough videos about it, I have heard real stories from friends who have experienced it. The students were not prepared for the army at all. What they've heard is always "PLA is our own army", they were told to love their army from the childhood. Then saw the tanks coming...I can really imagine how they felt. Military with tanks killing his own people is crime, no doubt. Till now CCP still did not give any statement about it and still censored it in the internet and media.

How can you expect this nation (government/party) to take responsibilty for the world if they even don't take responsibility for its own people?

People learn to respect law and the constitution?? Just ask CCP cadres to learn first! God knows how many things they did are against laws and constitution. The problem is not Hu or Wen, is those cadres in the provinces, in the cities and all over China. Hu or Wen can do nothing to them, too far from their control.


We watched and discussed the whole Tiananmen demo intensely in the UK - in schools (!- the longest peaceful demo in history that went on for months),among China hands and reporters, both Chinese and foreign and with Chinese students and the embassy. This might surprise you, but there were Iranians, Iraqis involved in supporting the students or the government.
The BBC showed when trouble first erupted with students throwing fire grenades on a tank , and setting buses with soldiers inside, on fire. That's when the protest bacame a struggle for power .Then the army cracked down - personally, I abhor the killings but equally, I'm not fooled by the student leaders who were arrogant and demanded but refused to listen or accept. They were talking to veterans who had sacrificed not only their lives but that of their families in the war with the Japanese and the nationalists.
Yes, I agree some of the cadres are corrupted and China is far from perfect as there're cases in the abuse of power. But which country is perfect - easier for smaller countries like SG and Switzerland.
China is so big, as you said, it's not the problem with Wen or HU - they try their best, but it's true what I said about the arrogance in some Chinese that they're a law unto themselves; that's why some people even question if democracy is the better solution at all.
Can we get away from the cruel reality that some innocent people have to suffer at the expense of real evil e.g. at the other extreme of personal liberty and humanitarian concerns as in the UK, people get 10 years for manslaughter when they actually murdered or extremists can sue the government for a couple of millions (at a time when the country has a national debt of running into trillions?).


I know a few students were really opportunists. But in any situation any government NEVER NEVER can use armed forces against their people!! For me, there was no excuse for their crime.

No country is perfect, but China is far far far from perfect! Yes in Economy they did it very well, but in human rights it was even much worse than the years before 1989. There was even much more freedom of opinion before 1989. And economic development, human rights and freedom can certainly coexist, but that did not happen in China.

You might have read the speech of Long Yingtai in the Peking University, I share the same opinion. If becoming a super power, means only a strong military, strong economy, arrogant foreign policy, but in the country people don't enjoy human rights and freedom, abroad not taking social responsibility for the international society, that would be a disaster for the mankind if this country becomes a super power.

Yes we all know no country guarantees absolute freedom, but sadly in China there is even no relative freedom. Not even mention human rights...

Some of the cadres are corrupt? Have you heard the saying of CCP "if we don't start anti-corruption our country will dissolve, but we start anti-corruption, our party will dissolve", just a glimpse for you to see how corrupt it is.

As I said before, Wen has mentioned the political reform in the CNN interview, but even this part is censored in Chinese media. Ironic, huh?? Wen and Hu got no power actually. Still the old guys have the last words. We only can hope the next generation would be able to start the political reform after the successful economic reform.

I do hope China will take this step, it takes time and it will be hard, but it has to happen. It's the only way for a peaceful transition cause I really don't want to see blood and civil war and mess like in Egypt and other countries.
Last edited by Eau2011 on Mon, 21 Feb 2011 11:38 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Postby Eau2011 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 10:07 pm

JR8 wrote:Are we witnessing first hand the Red-Tide of the 50C Army? :)


I nearly agree with you. :D

Hey, JR, you have really sharp eyes....

If you are right, why do I bother to write so much? :roll:
It doesn't make any sense... :???:
Last edited by Eau2011 on Mon, 21 Feb 2011 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby BillyB » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 10:23 pm

paulzheng wrote:As china bebcome the world second large econonic country, how do you look at china and the future of china?


Interesting post. From an analytical standpoint and when trying to deep dive into the China economy, the issue that troubles many of the major financial houses, equity analysts, and economists is a lack of reliability, clarity, transparency, consistency and standardisation in the economic data. I.e. Its almost impossible to benchmark anything accurately. The vast 'underground' market also contributes quite extensively to this. People don't like ambiguity and it throws up mixed opinion on China as a whole.

One thing that cannot be disputed is the volumes of growth which is on a colossal scale. And the growth is very real. GDP is at 10-14% over the past decade - mind blowing numbers.

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Postby bigfilsing » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 11:25 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:Twenty years ago the writing was already on the wall. When my eldest child started Kindergarten I had her take Mandarin as her Second Language (I'm a Yank & my wife is an Indian). She is fluent in the language as is my son. I figured, of all the languages in the world, aside from English (which ever flavour you prefer) Mandarin would shortly become the most valuable second language in the world. Who knows, not in my lifetime, but eventually it may well become the de facto international business language as English did in the 1960's (replacing french).

However, while China is increasing it's economic footprint worldwide, in SE Asia and for that matter East Asia, she will be viewed with suspicion for a very long time.


What have you been smoking my boy.
It just will never happen ...they don't even have a common language in their own country and it's the masses that make their might.

They don't have a respectable system of law ( without which nobody i know would ever seriously learn their culture ) learn Chinese .. yeah right
that's way there's more people in china learning English than the rest of the world put together ( have you not seen the HSBC ad's)

Wont happen...ever
When we all start spitting in the street for no reason , treating women like shit , and only looking out for number one then maybe just maybe come back

Praise a god ( anyone) that that will never be in my lifetime

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 11:50 pm

If, for once, you would read for content, you will note that I also said it wouldn't be in my lifetime either. Never say never. Nobody, 150 years ago thought the British Empire would crumble and die, or the Roman Empire for that matter. Time and tide wait for no man. They have the tide if they get it organized. A groundswell of humanity, with the right impetus.......

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Postby Expat_guy » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:10 am

bigfilsing wrote:
sundaymorningstaple wrote:Twenty years ago the writing was already on the wall. When my eldest child started Kindergarten I had her take Mandarin as her Second Language (I'm a Yank & my wife is an Indian). She is fluent in the language as is my son. I figured, of all the languages in the world, aside from English (which ever flavour you prefer) Mandarin would shortly become the most valuable second language in the world. Who knows, not in my lifetime, but eventually it may well become the de facto international business language as English did in the 1960's (replacing french).

However, while China is increasing it's economic footprint worldwide, in SE Asia and for that matter East Asia, she will be viewed with suspicion for a very long time.


What have you been smoking my boy.
It just will never happen ...they don't even have a common language in their own country and it's the masses that make their might.

They don't have a respectable system of law ( without which nobody i know would ever seriously learn their culture ) learn Chinese .. yeah right
that's way there's more people in china learning English than the rest of the world put together ( have you not seen the HSBC ad's)

Wont happen...ever
When we all start spitting in the street for no reason , treating women like shit , and only looking out for number one then maybe just maybe come back

Praise a god ( anyone) that that will never be in my lifetime


It will not happen in 1000 years. I say, what is the need to learn Chinese? It do not have proper written alphabets and not at all easy to learn. Your children must have been fluent because they have learnt Chinese since their childhood as they were in Singapore. What is the need for people who are not in chinese majority countries to learn Chinese lang?

Fun has already begun. More than 100 human rights activists have either been detained or have gone underground in China.

Let us wait and see

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Postby JR8 » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:40 am

Eau2011 wrote:
JR8 wrote:Are we witnessing first hand the Red-Tide of the 50C Army? :)


I nearly agree with you. :D

Hey, JR, you have really sharp eyes....

If you are right, why do I bother to write so much? :roll:
It doesn't make any sense... :???:


When someone who hasn't lived in China for - who knows - 50 years starts defending Mao because of the wisdom of some forests he planted you really do have to wonder.

I'll leave it at that before I start another bun-fight.

p.s. Me, sharp eyes? Jeez, wait til you see the acute finesse of '20/20 Rattlesnake SMS' in action :)

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Postby ksl » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:56 am

Everything was controversial when i was in the Beijing Language & cultral Institute back 1992, my first introduction to the Chinese rules was addressed on the first day of school.

No foreigner is allowed to visit Chinese families, without prior permission from the police department. I was followed in campus as well as off campus, I was befriended by secret police, that was interested in my politic, and why I liked the Chinese woman.

Actually I was swamped with women 300 in the annex to my building, I had a very comfortable room, I shared with a Malaysian Chinese who had worked for Boots in the UK. I also socialised just outside the campus with hoods, that ran the black market currency exchange enjoying a few beers around a 45 gallon drum fire.

There was no running water in the hairdressers and staff slept in the shops, occasionally i took some back to my room for showers, it was quite pityful watching a vagabond drink water out of a pool of oily shit puddle on the ground, that smelled of urine, the whole dusty streets smelled of urine, after people came out of the newly opened bars, not many at that time. The meat wagon used to come and dump the half sliced pigs on the pissed smelling dirty road to be carted into the butchers, it wasn't a pleasant site. The food was revolting on the school campus, the stench unbearable as they queued up with their mess tins, I only once tried to eat there.

I have hands on experience in China of booze women and the black market, I broke every rule in the book while there, as it was experience and adventure i wanted, I was often humiliated for my bad student practise but what the hell, I was having a ball.

What plavt says is correct, Mao made unforgivable errors, I could say more, but you will have to wait for my autobiography but I can assure you the people with some power I met. My first sight of this power was at night as the Forbidden City was closing to all the Tourists in fact it was empty, yet the doors opened to the person who accompanied me around the Forbidden City, with no other people in sight.

Being there at that time was something I could never imagine, but the flood of feelings of history around me were quite overwhelming.

I believe the people that studied traditional language not simplified, and i was told by several, that history would be kept from the younger generation by simplifying the language.

So we have communism on one side, but how long is a piece of string when it comes to politics and enforcement, how strong is the power that holds the people in check. Democracy will be phased in, just like the market economy was phased in, by strategy of those in power now.

China is very capable and it is there time, though if things are not done correctly China will fall, like a ton of bricks, as the poor get more poor, and those long time job offers are no more....Though communism has held up by conning the people that, it has always been the rulers intentions to make it a market economy, the next step is how to phase in democracy and freedoms to ensure China is for its people. They are trying to stamp out corruption, the people are very aware of the corrupt leaders.

My point is that over 1 billion 300 million people are very difficult to satisfy, it could go up any time, at present only 300 million are getting a piece of the action.

Though it is true to say that if you are Chinese, you address them all, as they are all family, even though some disagree like Taiwan, you cannot cut the strings no matter were they live. Identity is the most important thing of our lives, so communists, may support Mao and his errors, if they didn't they would be executed.

It's getting more and more clear, that there are literally hundreds of thousands if not millions of non communistic Chinese, that are controlled by cadres and if they do step out of line, they will be punished facts not fiction.

The fact that Taiwan is well infiltrated by mainland Chinese and Singapore too, is the planting of seeds for the future as I see it, there will be little one can do, though I only see conflict by those that will never be communist of which numbers we do not know. Though China will be more difficult to take if the communists are smart enough to phase in democratic rule and free speech, that will happen in my opinion and the credit will be to the communist party of uniting there brothers and sisters against the world. Interesting stuff the Taiwanese Chinese and mainland with a Brit in the middle, I know when to shut up :roll:

It's a very rich history, Japanese I'm afraid cannot be compared Plavt, they had their time of success and blew it....a lot of bad feeling today I can assure you for those families that were slaughtered by the Japanese its really a sensitive issue, but Japan never had the initiative to mix with foreigners it wanted to dominate and remain pure like Hitler.

I think the Chinese are more prone to be hardworking and focused on infiltration into communities planting seeds, to reap the rewards and gaining trust like a wolf in sheep's clothes :wink: Though China is rocky unstable and running risks of bubbles, and rebellion, its really a balancing act how on earth do you satisfy that kind of population. I think it will be done with the help of every nation, though the balance of wealth must be evenly distributed. There will be another oil conflict and confrontation before China sees democracy and the rate the world is going natural disasters and wars will settle the score of balance.

Nature is going to kick arse much more than it has done, just wait and see. People are the worst enemies of all life unfortunately

Eau2011
You have many valid points however empires are not built on small quibbles and speeches at Universities, it's done with an Iron fist like Rome did, and the Brits did. I'm sure China is well aware of its troubles, as it would have fallen along with Russia, but the mentality and focus is very different, they are adapting to evolution and change, democracy and free speech is the only way to save credibility of the communist party, so its more to do with patience building empires that suit all walks of life, in my opinion.

All the small ranters of equal rights may well have cause, but no real leverage at this time...just stamp on them or lock them up is the easiest, until it becomes a need for change.

(Bilfilsing:treating women like shit) For many years girl babies were killed at birth, as they were thought to be non productive today the young girls are kidnapped and sold on the black market, highly valued and out numbered. The women are treated more equal than British women believe it or not, they fought alongside the men in the revolution and earned there equality, they are strong minded women very individual and respectful to a degree, however treat one like shit, and you probably won't wake up in the morning, they are calculated and deliberate in what they do, were not talking of SPG's here. But hunger for wealth and family quite the opposite to most western mentality and your bank balance is the target for those that plan it. Many Singaporean men have been taken to the cleaners by mainland Chinese women and no doubt many foreigners too. :roll:

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Postby Vaucluse » Tue, 22 Feb 2011 10:02 am

ScoobyDoes wrote:
revhappy wrote:USSR was supposed to supersede US. It failed and Russia is a mess now.
Japan was supposed to supersede US. It failed and is in a mess as well.


The difference is that neither Russia or Japan had a worldwide domination before, at any point in history. China once, and will again, be the most powerful /influential country/power on the plant as it was once before.... dynasties ago.

Everything goes in cycles no matter the length. The Chinese were once top of the world


I must have missed that in history books . . . when exactly was China the most powerful/influential country in the world? Chinese power was always centred on their own little area, with their own people - until they invaded Tibet and the like.

The Great Leap Forward? Rough estimates of 45 million dead over four years?
The Cultural revolution? Government estimates of 30+ million deaths?

China is becoming too expensive a country for manufacturing . . . what will happen when these factories move to cheaper labour countries?

The country/city - poor/wealthy divide? Massive

Mandarin as a lingua franca? :lol: Even the local Chinese prefer to educate their children in English . .

Mandarin is too difficult to learn, even for Chinese . . . and as for China itself? It can't even get their own population to learn Mandarin.

1.3 billion people? India has almost that . . . So what!
......................................................

'nuff said Image


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