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How do you look at china and future of china

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Postby nakatago » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 4:24 pm

Eau2011 wrote:ha... their filtering has never stopped. The words "Norway" and "empty chair" have been filtered as well.

How long? :roll: that's the question...


I guess when the middle class feels that prices are too high and that they can't afford their cushy lifestyles anymore. Historically, popular revolts only succeed when enough of the middle class is fed up and the armed forces decide to join them. With the massive population of China, that's a lot of middle class people that need to be disgruntled.

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Postby Eau2011 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 4:39 pm

nakatago wrote:
Eau2011 wrote:ha... their filtering has never stopped. The words "Norway" and "empty chair" have been filtered as well.

How long? :roll: that's the question...


I guess when the middle class feels that prices are too high and that they can't afford their cushy lifestyles anymore. Historically, popular revolts only succeed when enough of the middle class is fed up and the armed forces decide to join them. With the massive population of China, that's a lot of middle class people that need to be disgruntled.


I prefer the peaceful solution, peaceful transition...

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Postby ksl » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 5:07 pm

revhappy wrote:USSR was supposed to supersede US. It failed and Russia is a mess now.
Japan was supposed to supersede US. It failed and is in a mess as well.

During the hay days of both these countries, nobody could have predicted that. I believe the same thing will happen with China. At this time we dont know what would that thing be that will trigger its collapse. So I am one who like to take a contrarion call on this one :wink:
One shouldn't underestimate the Chinese, those that have been fleeced by the grass roots brigades know too well, that they are all street wise.

Politics in China started to change after Mao's blunders, it was obvious that China had to transit into a market economy and to do that was no easy task...the strategy was geared up to convince all, that the market economy was a planned communistic move to keep solidarity and they have succeeded very well.

The next cry maybe for democracy and free speech, though at present its still early days. China's rulers are very aware of what needs to be done to stay ahead in the race for power.

Though technology wise they are still reliant on the USA and other foreign lands....The Countries massive population, and growth indicates that the US and Europe are reliant on the giant. No matter which Country you are in, nationalists will cry out loud at Chinese made products, however they are made on licence mostly, for the business manufacturers of the world.

Russia didn't have a look in once weaknesses showed in its hardware, and Japan was only superior in the technology and manufacturing field for a short while pricing itself out of the market.

It doesn't take a Nostradamus to predict the future anymore, as more and more people travel and become interested in world affairs, my money is on China without a doubt, though I'm hoping to spread my bets and invest in the right things.

I was onto ARM shares, when they stood at 30 pence, while Marconi was a dying company, Arm has that something special that no one can buy and that's their royalties. Without any serious competition they will just grow and grow their royalties.

China as a nation of inventors was in the past, it will take a long long time for them to be independant from USA and Europe, as technologies will not be handed over.

Though democracy and freedoms will no doubt be implemented first, before and great leap into being Independence, though I'm pretty sure they will also convince the populous through the propaganda machine, that it as always been the policy of Chinese communistic party to phase in democratic values.

The rumour is that simplistic Chinese was implemented, so that the population couldn't read all the errors of the past, I'm beginning to believe that China's leaders are all fox's herding their sheep in the direction they want.

Taiwan is infiltrated and I'm pretty sure China's long term strategy as been to plant seeds even in Singapore, for long term interests. Though understanding political and military strategies along with industrial espionage is more often seen in films, you can bet your life, that it is happening on the ground in real time at this moment.

Though the sheer numbers of China's growth and financial power is a major indicator of where we are heading. No other Country only India has the numbers, that could compete and they are a long way behind just now.

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby tyianchang » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 5:53 pm

paulzheng wrote:As china bebcome the world second large econonic country, how do you look at china and the future of china?


Business, commerce and technology are as ancient to China as the Silk Road. Ksl, Mao started the Great Leal Forward during which time the blueprint for today was laid - there're some China hands on Google researching into this area but I foget their names.
What China is today is a continuous process of development that started since the democratic movements led by Chinese to overthrow the Manchu dynasty. Don't talk badly of China - it has helped most of us, especially the poorer, and the retailers, with its low cost products on most goods. We have a joke here in Sweden and the UK that everything's made in China; but of course, we want lots more Mde in Engkand too - perhaps the Chinese can come over and kickstart more joint companies as the phlegmatic minds here have too many 'risk assessments' whereas the Chinese have a 'can do' attitude.
The BBC recently have a programme on "The Chinese are Coming' which the Times critised as issuing from the fear of the 'yellow peril'; except that the writer himself was more fearful with his downright negative prediction for China. It has always been like this - but the Chinese just carry on with their business instead of hitting back with anti-racist strategies like the Muslims or Blacks.
The BBC programme showed Chinese activities in Africa and Brazil. Chinese had aided Africa since the 60s when they helped to build roads, railways and the infrastructure from Tanzania, Zaire and the Congo; but it's now a two way trade and some Chinese have migrated to start enterprises in Africa! When we were young, it was not acceptable for Chinese to move out of China. In this way, the Chinese mindset has shifted; and hey, it's just like the Europeans migrating everywhere else. So what's the difference? None, in fact, the Chinese laid down miles of railway tracks in the wild west.
Regarding democracy - as a side track, I'd been talking to my Bulgarian and other Eastern Europeans about their lives in the communist days and the post 80s democratic makeover. Most of the people complain about job insecurities, high level unemployment and an increasingly unffordable life. I was told many look back to the old days when a job was for life, unemployment unheard of everyone was not short of the basic things. Apart from this, the crime rates shot up when there was hardly any crime before.
The jasmine revolution - imagine following a revolution not knowing who'd started it. How sheepish can the masses get? Basically, democracy protests, especially if it's about a struggle for power, should put fear in the hearts of the minority; esp if taking over simply depends on numbers rather than the constitution.
Regarding Tiananmen - it's similar to the present protest in Bahrain in the sense that the students began to arm themselves and initiated the horrid crackdown by throwing fire at the passing army tanks - on BBC records. They were not that peaceful as we'd like to think.
Then, when democracy was much talked about, most Chinese say 'no two Chinese ever think alike' and in China, many Chinese make their own laws anyway - so I gather, it'll take people to learn to respect their laws and the constitution before democracy can offer a peaceful alternative.
Mandarin was simplified because it was just technically wise to do so. Old Chinese was a hindrance to access of information and thinking and personally, I think it's stuck in the feudalistic culture of the past; but modern Chinese is made easy for us to learn with its accompanying pinyin. Why should Mandarin want to take over English - every language is beautiful because it's culture bound e.g. there're 54 words describing the colour of horses alone in Mongolian speak. The human mind is capable of using as many languages as it wants; in fact, bilingualism can deter the onset of dementia in old age. Apart from this, I'd want to learn Mandarin because it facilitates my brain in learning Maths, science and business - at least the financial side of it.
When one learns Mandarin, one's engaged in sound, radicle, image and memory so it's a learning that involves multiple systems correlating to the development in our brain and senses. With that level of mature consciousness, let's hope that the fighting savage is left far behind and humans can look into space exploration. As early as the 1980s, many of us China friends, thought they're ahead of us , with their en masse experiments with marxism, Mao's thoughts and mass mobilizations. When the balance was corrected by Deng Xioa Ping in 1983, China was already ripe for doing business. It amazed me with its speed and ability to make productive overnight changes - but as I'd seen of some of its gigantic hotels, the infrastructure needs more attention to quality.
What's democracy to the Chinese now that they'd been through the world's most pure form of communism, the democarcy wall, the great leap forward, the great cultural revolution and the reform of 1983??? If you'd ever imagined a static China, or one about the oppression of the masses, read into the small prints.
Last edited by tyianchang on Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:46 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Postby JR8 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 5:57 pm

I admire the foresight of their securing ultra-long term deals on commodities required by their industries, but on the flip-side I rather despair that they seem willing to agree deals with just about anybody in order to do so (example: the genocidal tyrant president Bashir of Sudan).

I think China has economic muscle due to the scale of it's workforce and their current competitive low costs. But I think the likes of the US have the advantage of being more 'bottom-up', i.e. driven by business owners rather than top-down government diktat. This gives the US a large advantage of flexibility and responsiveness to market demand.

p.s. to Nak. SG used to have it's own version of the 50c Army. We used to see them on the newsgroup soc.culture.singapore when I was in-country back in early/mid 90s. At that time that site was the only discussion forum re: SG on the net. The 'Army' were apparently members of the Youth PAP, but we referred to them as PAPbots hehehe. They were easy to spot, as they'd turn up en masse and robotically refute any negative posts point by point by point lol. I'm sure the equivalent still exists, just they have learned how to operate a little more discreetly.
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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby Eau2011 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:03 pm

tyianchang wrote: Regarding democracy - as a side track, I'd been talking to my Bulgarian and other Eastern Europeans about their lives in the communist days and the post 80s democratic makeover. Most of the people complain about job insecurities, high level unemployment and an increasingly unffordable life. I was told many look back to the old days when a job was for life, unemployment unheard of everyone was not short of the basic things. Apart from this, the crime rates shot up when there was hardly any crime before.


I lived in a country where east met west.

I talked to some people who were from east Germany. Yes they did have a job before the German reunification. But the full employment was artificial. The work needs probably only two, 10 will work for it, so everybody has a job. It would not work out in the long term.

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Postby ScoobyDoes » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:10 pm

revhappy wrote:USSR was supposed to supersede US. It failed and Russia is a mess now.
Japan was supposed to supersede US. It failed and is in a mess as well.


The difference is that neither Russia or Japan had a worldwide domination before, at any point in history. China once, and will again, be the most powerful /influential country/power on the plant as it was once before.... dynasties ago.

Everything goes in cycles no matter the length. The Chinese were once top of the world then lost it to what is commonly called the 'West' but as cycles go it will reclaim that position agian but we know that as time goes by cycles become shorter and shorter so whilst it might have taken a century or two for the China/West Cycle it will likely be less in the future.

We see this as even China now is exporting business to the likes of Vietnam and Africa where things are cheaper. It might take 10, 20 or 30yrs but in the end the cycle will come around again to where the 'West' is the best/cheapest place to do manufacturing, and one might argue the current financial crisis is enough to puch more manufacturing back in that actual direction!
'When Lewis Hamilton wins a race he has to thank Vodafone whereas in my day I used to chase the crumpet. I know which era I'd rather race in.'

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby Plavt » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:25 pm

tyianchang wrote:
Business, commerce and technology are as ancient to China as the Silk Road. Ksl, Mao started the Great Leal Forward during which time the blueprint for today was laid -


You might care to read up on that statement; what Mao started was a 'Great Flop forward. Examples are collecting just about all the available steel in the country and mixing it to make various items or implements. However, the practice resulted in a impure steel which was brittle and of little or no value to industry. In addtion he destroyed much of the country's heritage, along with stock piling grain which yields no intersest. Have a look at John Frazer's* 'The Chinese' which is rather old now and may be difficult to acquire. David Bonavia write's a similar account under the same title.

*Formerly the correspondent for the Toronto 'Globe & Mail.'

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby Eau2011 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:29 pm

tyianchang wrote: Regarding Tiananmen - it's similar to the present protest in Bahrain in the sense that the students began to arm themselves and initiated the horrid crackdown by throwing fire at the passing army tanks - on BBC records. They were not that peaceful as we'd like to think.

Then, when democracy was much talked about, most Chinese say 'no two Chinese ever think alike' and in China, many Chinese make their own laws anyway - so I gather, it'll take people to learn to respect their laws and the constitution before democracy can offer a peaceful alternative.


I've read many books and seen enough videos about it, I have heard real stories from friends who have experienced it. The students were not prepared for the army at all. What they've heard is always "PLA is our own army", they were told to love their army from the childhood. Then saw the tanks coming...I can really imagine how they felt. Military with tanks killing his own people is crime, no doubt. Till now CCP still did not give any statement about it and still censored it in the internet and media.

How can you expect this nation (government/party) to take responsibilty for the world if they even don't take responsibility for its own people?

People learn to respect law and the constitution?? Just ask CCP cadres to learn first! God knows how many things they did are against laws and constitution. The problem is not Hu or Wen, is those cadres in the provinces, in the cities and all over China. Hu or Wen can do nothing to them, too far from their control.
Last edited by Eau2011 on Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:57 pm, edited 7 times in total.

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Postby Plavt » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:34 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:Mandarin would shortly become the most valuable second language in the world. Who knows, not in my lifetime, but eventually it may well become the de facto international business language as English did in the 1960's (replacing french).



Personally I don't think this very likely; for a long time as everybody knows Japan had the second largest economy in the world but did Japanese become a lingua-franca? No, yet basic Japanese from a spoken perspective is far easier than Chinese contrary to popular belief although that isn't true of written Japanese. Hunt around on Google for some tables on the popularity and usuages of languages there are some interesting facts and opinions.
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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby Plavt » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:39 pm

tyianchang wrote: Regarding Tiananmen - it's similar to the present protest in Bahrain in the sense that the students began to arm themselves and initiated the horrid crackdown by throwing fire at the passing army tanks - on BBC records. They were not that peaceful as we'd like to think.

Then, when democracy was much talked about, most Chinese say 'no two Chinese ever think alike' and in China, many Chinese make their own laws anyway - so I gather, it'll take people to learn to respect their laws and the constitution before democracy can offer a peaceful alternative.


A point made by the late Alistair Cooke was; at that the time of the Tiananmen square massacre most Chinese did not really know or understand democracy. What they percieved to be democracy was only a 'glow' of democracy (sorry I don't have the exact quote).

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby JR8 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 6:42 pm

Eau2011 wrote:I lived in a country where east met west.

I talked to some people who were from east Germany. Yes they did have a job before the German reunification. But the full employment was artificial. The work needs probably only two, 10 will work for it, so everybody has a job. It would not work out in the long term.


Isn't work-sharing of this kind an aspect of Marxist theory? I.e. that it is better that ten people have some quantity of work, rather than only two monopolising it and reaping the benefits, whilst 8 sit idle.

Come to think of it does not something similar exist in law in the EU with the Working Time Directive? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_time_directive

That legally mandates that no one can work more than a 48hr week. Nope, not even if you want to! The UK have some form of opt-out to it as I remember having to sign a waiver with my previous employer.

The ramifications of it are pretty massive still though. For example in the UK NHS where roles that required 24hr coverage could be covered by 2 (or so) shifts, suddenly you had to have 3 (or so). It is no wonder the UK NHS employs more people than the army of the PRC!

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby tyianchang » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 7:09 pm

Plavt wrote:
tyianchang wrote: Regarding Tiananmen - it's similar to the present protest in Bahrain in the sense that the students began to arm themselves and initiated the horrid crackdown by throwing fire at the passing army tanks - on BBC records. They were not that peaceful as we'd like to think.

Then, when democracy was much talked about, most Chinese say 'no two Chinese ever think alike' and in China, many Chinese make their own laws anyway - so I gather, it'll take people to learn to respect their laws and the constitution before democracy can offer a peaceful alternative.


A point made by the late Alistair Cooke was; at that the time of the Tiananmen square massacre most Chinese did not really know or understand democracy. What they percieved to be democracy was only a 'glow' of democracy (sorry I don't have the exact quote).


Politics and the idea of democratic governments were a hotbed of discussions in China - mainly in Beijing and Shanghai, since the fading days of the Ching dynasty. In fact, as far back as 1879 or so, a Chinese democrative government headed by ..., ruled China in the interrim for a few decades (will get the forgotten name). Except that, like Napoleon, he tried to make himself emperor later on, and was ousted - all this happened before the butchery of the Japanese invasion. Alistair Cooke? Was he a China hand? Read Edgar Snow, Rewi Alley or Philip (?) Greene.

But it's true about the Tiananmen sq movement - information gleaned from first hand contacts with students show that the drive was basically for material rewards - instead of the capitalist pig, money was evil etc, the whole attitude tipped over when students went to the US and marvelled at the wealth of individuals in capitalist systems. They hadn't seen Detroit or Tentcity then, and that happened in the 80s, before the Chinese started, so they can't blame the implosion in these cities on the Chinese either.
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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby x9200 » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 7:13 pm

Eau2011 wrote:
tyianchang wrote: Regarding democracy - as a side track, I'd been talking to my Bulgarian and other Eastern Europeans about their lives in the communist days and the post 80s democratic makeover. Most of the people complain about job insecurities, high level unemployment and an increasingly unffordable life. I was told many look back to the old days when a job was for life, unemployment unheard of everyone was not short of the basic things. Apart from this, the crime rates shot up when there was hardly any crime before.


I lived in a country where east met west.

I talked to some people who were from east Germany. Yes they did have a job before the German reunification. But the full employment was artificial. The work needs probably only two, 10 will work for it, so everybody has a job. It would not work out in the long term.

And above all it was and still is about work attitude and mentality. If your job is secured for ever who cares about product quality and job efficiency? Well, this is precisely what has changed and the whole generations are in big troubles trying to find themselves in reality that does not fit what they are used to.

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Re: How do you look at china and future of china

Postby tyianchang » Mon, 21 Feb 2011 7:21 pm

Eau2011 wrote:
tyianchang wrote: Regarding democracy - as a side track, I'd been talking to my Bulgarian and other Eastern Europeans about their lives in the communist days and the post 80s democratic makeover. Most of the people complain about job insecurities, high level unemployment and an increasingly unffordable life. I was told many look back to the old days when a job was for life, unemployment unheard of everyone was not short of the basic things. Apart from this, the crime rates shot up when there was hardly any crime before.


I lived in a country where east met west.

I talked to some people who were from east Germany. Yes they did have a job before the German reunification. But the full employment was artificial. The work needs probably only two, 10 will work for it, so everybody has a job. It would not work out in the long term.


Yes, there was the age of manipulation and propaganda, less subtle than what we normally have; but the point is that it was a community that cared for everyone. It couldn't work out in the long term, communism, to me was only a means to an end and not the end in itself. There're some good points in it and in today's situation e.g. with the British and US governments buying into the banks etc, it's a very thin libe between communism and capitalism in this respect.
But the reality in Bulgaria that I spoke of is real today and something needs to be done. She's afraid to return as the prices of most goods are going up beyond her means as a UK salaried matron!
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