Obama Wins the Nobel Peace Prize

[sundaymorningstaple]

So far he's not accomplished any more than any beauty contestant who says the world should hope for world peace! Give 'em all Nobel prizes.

[aargon]

lets play spot the republicans on this thread!

[sundaymorningstaple]

You mean the one who will actually admit to it don't you?

[econoMIC]

S...Economically? Guess it depends on POV doesn't it. The academic will support him, but the man in the street is the one who will be paying the fines OR higher costs for medical insurance provided he's still employed that is. And provided he can still pay his mortgage (even if he didn't borrow 110% of the equity of his home, if he's been out of work for a couple of years he's still down the crapper.

Academics say it would be a lot worse. Academics said the bailout would solve all the problems, and you want to believe academics? Nah. I want to see positive facts. When you bite off more than you can chew, you are bound to get indigestion or worse.

The fact is that general medical care would bring costs down for everybody, not up. At the moment you pay 2.4 times the amount in the US you would pay for a standard procedure in the UK. Medications are 3x as expensive. The man in the street is not aware of this as he is used to it, he never sees the real cost of his medical insurance. Broad medical cover would bring the costs of the medical system drastically down and the man in the street would feel it but of course the man in the street started having a go at the NHS in the UK saying Steven Hawking would have been left to die (what rubbish). In fact disabled and fatally ill people get better treatment in the UK than in the US. SMS, you know the medical system in Singapore which is heavily subsidised by the state (even for PRs until the last few years and they withdrew these benefits only because of those short term PRs that are gone in 60 seconds). I dare to say the medical system in Singapore is as good as the system in the US but costs only a fraction of it.

Academics never said the bailout would solve the problems but it would be the best remedy and you have to admit it did prevent a 1930s style depression. The positive facts are all around you if you compare to what it could have come 20% unemployment, drastically falling wages, mass poverty a la 1930s. Otherwise it is like saying Chemo doesn't help you because it makes you vomit and lose your hair. The fact that is probably keeps you alive and fights the cancer is the thing to focus on.

[Superglide]

Thank you both for the welcome.

Obviously the slow and laborious life back home has tempted you back!

How are you and the Food Monster?!

Hi there!

We're doin great, indeed in a slow and laid back pace...

Food monster is actually visiting Singers right now, I decided to stay put in Amsterdamned, take care of the pets...

And you and the mrs.? Still enjoying Singers?

[sundaymorningstaple]

Academics never said the bailout would solve the problems but it would be the best remedy and you have to admit it did prevent a 1930s style depression. The positive facts are all around you if you compare to what it could have come 20% unemployment, drastically falling wages, mass poverty a la 1930s. Otherwise it is like saying Chemo doesn't help you because it makes you vomit and lose your hair. The fact that is probably keeps you alive and fights the cancer is the thing to focus on.

Actually, LGM, I don't know if it prevented a 1930's style depression or not. That purely speculation that an academic would use to drive home a point. Unfortunately they don't have a control economy to prove or disprove it.

And using Chemo is a pretty bad example. I just came back from a trip home due to my father now having to undergo a second round of chemo for his lung cancer after the operation 1.5 years ago for the colon cancer damned near killed him. Yeah, it keeps you alive, but at what quality of life (a question he's grappling with right now). I can see his point. If the "potential" cure makes life not worth living, then what's the point? It's his second round of chemo he's getting ready to start "with no guarantees"!

Sound familiar? They are already talking about ANOTHER stimulus as the first one didn't do squat. What makes them so sure another will do anything? Other than probably destroy the US completely once the dollar is deemed too unstable to be used as the international oil currency. That's already being whispered about. Time will tell. But at least it wont be on my conscious. And if he it pulls it off and turns it around, I won't be claiming any of the credit either. More and more of those who put him there are starting to feel the same way as each month goes by. Have they lost faith? Or just realized that they have been snowed! I hope to hell I'm wrong but ........ (and I've said this all along)! I should of been born in Missouri - the "Show Me" state. So far he's not shown me anything at all. Heck, he cannot even string two sentences together without a teleprompter. I grant you, McCain would have been a worse choice. But that doesn't mean I have to throw my trust/faith in with someone I don't believe is capable.

[ksl]

Obama says: "Let me be clear: I do not view it as a recognition of my own accomplishments, but rather as an affirmation of American leadership on behalf of aspirations held by people in all nations," he said at the White House. "To be honest, I do not feel that I deserve to be in the company of so many of the transformative figures who've been honored by this prize."

At least he acknowledges the truth!

[econoMIC]

But you see SMS, it is clear that a 1930s depression was prevented. Many Economists showed this. Yes, I admit the studies are very complex and I don't even get them although I am halfway through my masters in economics but that is a fact, same like you can't argue with a doctor. If a study shows that something helps you go for it. Of course in medicine you have the luxury of having a control group but even there you initially only run simulations and learn lots of it and know what to do and not to do.

Sorry to hear about your father, I would not have used this example if I had known your did is undergoing chemo right now. I agree it might be better for him to not go through the pain and enjoy the little time of his life instead. If you knew however that he still had 50 years to life and that it would most likely work, wouldn't you do it? This is the point, the people losing their jobs, being hungry on the streets, dying due to a 1930s depression still have plenty of time and you know it is better than doing nothing to use stimulus.

Yes they are talking about a second stimulus because households couldn't shed their debt yet and can't pick up the slack demand. However your statement that the first one didn't do squat is I am sorry to say plainly wrong. House prices have stopped falling as a result (they are still totally overpriced based on incomes and otherwise still would have to fall 30% to 60%). Stock markets have stopped falling and recovered, so the wealth of people's pensions has been preserved. Without this stimulus nobody would have bought sh1t and more people than currently would have lost their jobs because nobody buys your output means you do not have a job. People are starting to consume again, not at 100% of the previous level but at a healthier level which still allows them to have savings and shed debt. Companies are receiving new order (from stimulus money) which otherwise would have meant they would have to close and lay off workers. The reason why you need a second stimulus package is that households couldn't yet shed their debt and need time to do so, in the meantime there is nobody else there to pick up demand. People are unemployed also would mean they couldn't pay off their debt and this would drag on for ever.

The lessons were there, Sweden in the 90s, Japan and its lost decade in the late 90s. The 1930s. We always have to keep in mind if the governments would not have stepped in nobody would have stepped in to pick up slack demand and more people would have lost their jobs. And endless spiral. Of course it can't be a long term solution but you have to wait until consumers and households are financially sound again. A bit of moderation in the anglo saxon world would have prevented this but unfortunately they would have all complained if anyone would have advised them to spend less, because they have all rights to do whatever they want...

[sundaymorningstaple]

Well, lets just put it this way, why do the economists get it wrong EVERY quarter! and and to recant their projectitons. This happens without fail. Therefore, my view of economists goes from HUH? to "Laughing my Arse off!". Singapore is a prime example. Economists use formula's and charts and like the charts that ksl likes to use in the stock market, while they help understand trends, they really are not that good for projections as formula's cannot take in all the scenarios.

I cannot quote from textbooks, but only have the citizens on the ground to go by that I saw this trip home. It's the little people who are suffering not the "investors". The unemployment rate is still rising so I'd have to say the stock market rebound is artificial as well.

As it would be ludicrous for me to continue this discussion (with this being your chosen field) I'll just agree to disagree on this.

[ksl]

Well, lets just put it this way, why do the economists get it wrong EVERY quarter! and and to recant their projectitons. This happens without fail. Therefore, my view of economists goes from HUH? to "Laughing my Arse off!". Singapore is a prime example. Economists use formula's and charts and like the charts that ksl likes to use in the stock market, while they help understand trends, they really are not that good for projections as formula's cannot take in all the scenarios.

I cannot quote from textbooks, but only have the citizens on the ground to go by that I saw this trip home. It's the little people who are suffering not the "investors". The unemployment rate is still rising so I'd have to say the stock market rebound is artificial as well.

As it would be ludicrous for me to continue this discussion (with this being your chosen field) I'll just agree to disagree on this.

I also studied economics on my intensive business course a 3 year course crammed into 1 year, for academics, gifted academics I should say, so maybe i was an example of the opposite , I believe i was accepted based on my worldly wroking experience, the day i turned up for the start of the course, the students believed i was the 40 year old English teacher its kind of challenging to see it through.
I was as challenging then as i was in the military and obviously got my arse kicked, because you cannot beat the system and education is a part of it, it is a set standard of learning, not a debate about what is right and what is wrong, statistical evidence is there to be manipulated with. So I agree with SMS in many ways.

Though i must say I have always been impressed by Alan Greenspan, when it comes to projections, I mean you are talking about the elite in their field and it certainly shows, so like any other occupation you get the good and the bad. Theories are great, but do they work?, I can say they do if they are adopted by governments to serve a purpose, the people, see the ups and downs are nothing new in political terms.

After a crash, how else are you going to win votes, if you do not throw government support and cash? Would you like to be screwed from the start, like they did in Robin Hoods day?

I use the normal graphs that are available for the stock market on a quarterly basis using head & shoulders technique to keep it simple.

I don't believe that you can make forward predications unless you have stable macro and micro data, Any cause will have an effect, so there is a lot of what if's going on

[blue_thunder]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/0 ... 14907.html

He might win the Oscar's too for 2010 , for the best actor/dialogue etc. lol


Cheers~

[sundaymorningstaple]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/0 ... 14907.html

He might win the Oscar's too for 2010 , for the best actor/dialogue etc. lol


Cheers~

Nah, it's his script writer who should get the Oscar. "Best Screenplay in a Fantasy Story" field. As a lead actor he didn't study his lines all that well and still has to read verbatim. Can't seem to remember anything at all. Maybe that's why if you listen to the same topic at 6 month intervals you'll constantly get a different story of what he's reading (you'll notice I said reading and not saying).

[ScoobyDoes]

Well, lets just put it this way, why do the economists get it wrong EVERY quarter! and and to recant their projectitons. This happens without fail. Therefore, my view of economists goes from HUH? to "Laughing my Arse off!". Singapore is a prime example. Economists use formula's and charts and like the charts that ksl likes to use in the stock market, while they help understand trends, they really are not that good for projections as formula's cannot take in all the scenarios.

It's the same sh!t at work, with annual projections/budgets and bosses asking "Where do you want to be in 5-yrs" or even "what is your plan?"

Huh? I spend one week before a review thinking up sh!t to answer and i give you all them, one week later there is a 9-11 style attack or financial crisis then i just spent a week of my life wasting time answering sh!t and for what? Everything has changed. I'd rather have been working and making money in that week.

People ask me how long i will stay in Singapore and the only answer is "Will see lah "

Projections whether in business or the stock market is based on the here and now, not related to anything that happens tomorrow that nobody can see or predict. This is why so-called experts are useless and they are always wrong, everything is based on historic data and even if that data is only 1s old the key is, it's old.

[econoMIC]

The reason why forecasts are not that accurate is that economic models can not be tested as SMS said already. Still, by just looking at past experiences you can infer general trends. This was the point I was trying to make. I just wish consumers would not discredit what they can not observe but have a bit of faith in science.

To go back to topic, I still do stick to what I said: Obama didn't do anything yet. I tend to believe that this decision will actually make things more difficult in international relations over the next few years.

[Bafana]

The Concept alone deserves the Nobel Peace Prize (let alone the man).

Remember when I was working in ireland we went to the opening of Lyric FM in Limerick (having been the Design PM/Engineer) and met both of the than current winners from Nothern Ireland. I looked at both of them thinking why the hell do they deserve this honor when all they did was let social evoltuion take it's course. I realised that the Nobel Peace Prize is sometimes more about the concept than the people involved.

Obama's rise to presidency is about the world not just America. It is a shining light and an opening of a new chapter in race realtions. His politics aside this is all pretty clear to see. He has become a symbol of change and global rebirth. In the devloping world he is already a legend and in the developed world he is hope for the future.

(Did he just walk on water or what?!?!?!)

Alamak, starting to sound like a bad Sci Fi writer now. But you get my meaning I hope.