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Asian Economy !

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ksl
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Re: Asian Economy !

Postby ksl » Wed, 05 Aug 2009 1:59 pm

ScoobyDoes wrote:
ksl wrote: but if you know how the system works, you can try to embarrass them into submission.



Or how a computer works ..... in which case most bills and transfers can be done with the bank online, within a day or two.

I write two checks a month..... one to my kid's day care and one to CitiBank and i only write the cheque to CitiBank to piss them off because it comes from UOB.



On Topic..... The Asian Economy still has some way to fall.




On Topic..... The Asian Economy still has some way to fall


Yes I agree, we have felt a 25% fall in consumer spending this year, based on our own statistics, yet organisers of events try desperately not to reduce their rates, and this is why I say fools and their money are soon parted.

We have already worked out what we will pay, so we tell them to come back on the last day before the event, then we know, we can also lower the price again.

It's really a shark eat shark way of dealing here, if you get the strategy wrong it's going to be costly. :-|

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littlegreenman
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Re: Asian Economy !

Postby littlegreenman » Wed, 05 Aug 2009 2:37 pm

ksl wrote:
ScoobyDoes wrote:
ksl wrote: but if you know how the system works, you can try to embarrass them into submission.



Or how a computer works ..... in which case most bills and transfers can be done with the bank online, within a day or two.

I write two checks a month..... one to my kid's day care and one to CitiBank and i only write the cheque to CitiBank to piss them off because it comes from UOB.



On Topic..... The Asian Economy still has some way to fall.




On Topic..... The Asian Economy still has some way to fall


Yes I agree, we have felt a 25% fall in consumer spending this year, based on our own statistics, yet organisers of events try desperately not to reduce their rates, and this is why I say fools and their money are soon parted.

We have already worked out what we will pay, so we tell them to come back on the last day before the event, then we know, we can also lower the price again.

It's really a shark eat shark way of dealing here, if you get the strategy wrong it's going to be costly. :-|


Consumer spending has fallen massively but governments the world over have stepped in to pick up the slack (some Yank chose to fork out $750bn in one country alone). Chinese GDP is also back on track to growth although again through stimulus, exports are still down but so are imports so this is GDP neutral. So for a moment we are still not having deflation and prices are stable.

The problem though is that (apart from Singapore maybe) no country is in the fiscal situation that they can sustain this very long. So the question is what will happen in 2010 when the stimulus starts to run out? Although many analysts say they are now starting to worry about inflation as a result of the massive stimulus I would say wait until 2010 and then see whether we might go from a blip in inflation to deflation.

The good thing about Asia (if you forget about South Korea and Japan for a second) is that companies are able to shed workers quickly and can thus re-allocate resources swiftly to focus on healthy business and return to growth. Things are looking different in Europe for sure.

Also, regarding the "bashing of the banks" earlier on, let us not forget what was invested into, property and mortgages. It was not only that banks pushed money to these "terms" property and mortgages (that is the majority of debt, forget about that little bit of credit card debt in relation to mortgages). Everybody was supposed to have their own property, they all wanted their own bit, fair enough one might say. But then two years after they got their place with the 90% LTV, they then re-mortgaged and took up 100 or even 110% LTV mortgages and what did they do with the money? Buy sh1t! Now you add Credit Card debt to the picture. They had their own homes, didn't take serious their obligation that came with it and kept consuming instead of applying moderation, although their incomes had not changed. Of course this had to implode one day. Are the banks at fault? Well, partially because they knew this was going on. But even more you could blame thy neighbour. ksl, you are from Britain, you have seen it. People did not do what our parents did once they had their own home, they did not save and aim to pay it off as soon as possible, instead they kept consuming. So instead of pushing all the blame on banks who made it possible for people to own their own properties (I admit they should have never given out 110% or even 90% LTV mortgages) one should also blame the consumers who did not honour their commitments and decided to keep spending on even more debt instead of doing the necessary evil that comes with having a mortgage - saving and paying it off. When a bank gives out a mortgage they can not assess whether Joe Bloke goes out the day after and puts 5 grand on a credit card to buy sh1t or they buy a new car on credit. All out of a sudden the bank has a deterioration in credit rating of its borrower and they can do nothing about it. Social responsibility among borrowers was lost somewhere throughout the last decade.

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ScoobyDoes
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Re: Asian Economy !

Postby ScoobyDoes » Wed, 05 Aug 2009 3:49 pm

littlegreenman wrote:Consumer spending has fallen massively but governments the world over have stepped in to pick up the slack (some Yank chose to fork out $750bn in one country alone). Chinese GDP is also back on track to growth although again through stimulus, exports are still down but so are imports so this is GDP neutral. So for a moment we are still not having deflation and prices are stable.

The problem though is that (apart from Singapore maybe) no country is in the fiscal situation that they can sustain this very long. So the question is what will happen in 2010 when the stimulus starts to run out? Although many analysts say they are now starting to worry about inflation as a result of the massive stimulus I would say wait until 2010 and then see whether we might go from a blip in inflation to deflation.



You are right there as well......... all these stimulus packages have to be paid back from somewhere. Either huge cuts in services and benefits like California or higher taxation.

Just imagine California on a nationwide scale.

Singapore has the benefit of quite a substantial transient workforce and very little in the way of labour rights in comparison to the "West" so in theory the cutting of jobs has less effect on the local populous, rather just the population overall.

I said months ago when recession started to bite that countries need to become more self sufficient in many aspects; agriculture, the manufacture of basic needs, its workforce to name just a few. We see what happens when everything (too much) is subcontracted and sold to the cheapest bidder, usually a foreigner. Ok, so world trade takes a nosedive and my company collapses but its all for the greater good :P

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littlegreenman
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Postby littlegreenman » Wed, 05 Aug 2009 4:30 pm

Well Singapore is slightly different as I indicated above as the government still has national savings instead of national debt due to running budget surpluses for 40 out of 44 years. But in general South East Asian Economies will be the "winners" in a couple of years as they are still only going to have debt to GDP ratios of 30% while the West will be at or beyond 100% (have fun paying that back dear Brits and company). It is a long process but the western populations will be learning the lesson for overspending and never balancing their budgets while South East Asia (except South Korea) has always been prudent.


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