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About That Singapore Economy

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Strong Eagle
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About That Singapore Economy

Postby Strong Eagle » Wed, 15 Apr 2009 10:46 am

From the FT (yes, this link is permissible by FT policies):

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bebdd828-2893 ... ck_check=1

Singapore is suffering a deep decline. The hardest hit areas are banking and exports. Singapore is very much the 'canary in the coal mine', sensitive to international trade and finance.

So, when you are asking about jobs in Singapore you might consider doing a bit of financial research into the field you are interested in.

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same old story

Postby haggle » Wed, 15 Apr 2009 9:04 pm

Asian Financial, Dotcom Bubble and SARS but Singapore, HK, US, UK etc bounced back each time. Credit Crunch is the same. I hope :(

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Re: same old story

Postby Strong Eagle » Wed, 15 Apr 2009 9:22 pm

haggle wrote:Asian Financial, Dotcom Bubble and SARS but Singapore, HK, US, UK etc bounced back each time. Credit Crunch is the same. I hope :(


If you read the article you'd see that the drop off is far more severe this time... a few percent in the last recessions... double digits this time that could last 6 years.

Might ought to plan on the basis of reality and not hope.

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Postby pakjohn » Wed, 15 Apr 2009 11:33 pm

I'm very comfortable ignoring most of what I see or read in the media as far as attempts to forecast the recovery. You can just about see the pulse in looking at capital exchange rates, a key indicator of any positive movement. Of course the banks will have to be the first to improve, if they don't improve, companies can't grow.

Actually, I don't see a recovery as that indicates a return to a previous state.

Is it a surprise to anyone the economy is tanking here? Isn't this an export economy? No orders, no money... Anyone apathetic enough not to google a company prior to interviewing probably doesn't deserve the job in the first place.
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Postby winger7 » Fri, 17 Apr 2009 6:26 pm

Its not time to be too optimistic I know but from what I understand Asia will certainly recover faster than the west. Obama has come out yesterday and just said that the end of the current economic crisis COULD be over soon...key word: COULD. I also suppose HK is in a better position than SG since we can always depend on China...and China is probably one of the countries that has not been affected as severly

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Postby ksl » Fri, 17 Apr 2009 7:38 pm

winger7 wrote:Its not time to be too optimistic I know but from what I understand Asia will certainly recover faster than the west. Obama has come out yesterday and just said that the end of the current economic crisis COULD be over soon...key word: COULD. I also suppose HK is in a better position than SG since we can always depend on China...and China is probably one of the countries that has not been affected as severly
Unfortuately you are well out of tune with what is happening and and a few lines on this forum will not help.

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Postby pakjohn » Fri, 17 Apr 2009 8:13 pm

Unfortuately you are well out of tune with what is happening and and a few lines on this forum will not help.



Couldn't agree more...
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Postby winger7 » Fri, 17 Apr 2009 9:09 pm

pakjohn wrote:
Unfortuately you are well out of tune with what is happening and and a few lines on this forum will not help.



Couldn't agree more...


well i probably do...those were words of optimism

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Postby ksl » Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:14 pm

winger7 wrote:
pakjohn wrote:
Unfortuately you are well out of tune with what is happening and and a few lines on this forum will not help.



Couldn't agree more...


well i probably do...those were words of optimism


Dear winger7 I am probably one of the most optimistic people you will ever meet, some call me bloody crazy in fact!

Although the bigger picture in the world, is that all the industrial Companies from the west, moved their operations to Asia, giving Asians more employment, to satisfy the demands of well developed Countries, that dropped industry work, for the service sector due to business logic of survival and not national loyalty.

200 years ago Raffles helped to develop a little red dot, called Singapore, USA, UK, and many other European Countries, built up their networking contacts, and made Singapore a hub for trading, import & export, to the well developed Countries long before Singapore was into finance, so when the west does not buy, Asians loose their jobs especially in MNC or Companies dealing with imports & exports. It's that simple.

Banks are hit world wide including China.

With most of the west knowledge and major industries moved to places like Taiwan and China, and other Asian countries, actually employing literally millions if not billions of workers, to produce western goods.

Asia cannot yet support itself, on selling just to Asians, even if there are several billion people, they lack the financial resources to make the world go around as if nothing happened.

It's called the knock on effect, and i can tell you international economics wasn't my best subject either, but i did study it. You have to look at the bigger picture of how the international economies work, with finance and import exports. With a couple of history lessons thrown in to understand exactly what the little red dot stands for, besides it's strategic value.

What has happened with the stock markets in the last 6 weeks, is no other than a normal cyclic reaction, that happens every year, only it is more prominent in a downward spiral, when new orders are placed, because of low world wide inventories. factories are pumping out at high levels in China, but it will be short lived for some industries.

Money is still very tight and the banks are more strict, and still loosing money in many cases, including Asian banks.

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Postby winger7 » Sat, 18 Apr 2009 1:44 pm

Very well answered ksl, I wouldn't doubt u for a minute, simply because I've only been working for a year and a half and to be honest, it seems like for the last few posts that you have answered in response to my answers, it feels like I learn something new every time. :D Excuse me but I am a humble person. Anyway, stock markets is one thing but...just on the papers today I saw Citibank on the front pages saying the bank has made profit. It doesn't seem like it is just stock markets that are on the rise...but I suppose everything else is in relation to it. Even though China is just as hard hit...I'm positive that it isn't as hardly hit as the west anyway...well I am still looking to learn, there is plenty out there that I dont know :)

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Postby Strong Eagle » Sat, 18 Apr 2009 4:31 pm

winger7 wrote:just on the papers today I saw Citibank on the front pages saying the bank has made profit.


It is a paper profit and there are a million ways to generate a profit or loss in a complex accounting system. A lot of people say it is 'smoke and mirrors' profit, designed to look better to attract investors.

What I'd really like to see is the cash flow statement. This tells you whether the company actually made any money.

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Postby pakjohn » Sat, 18 Apr 2009 5:18 pm

I generally don't trade stocks but when Citibank dropped to a dollar it was worth a 1000 USD gamble. It's doubled in price because of bottom feeders like me. I see oil stocks still dropping and people were selling oil exploration company stocks that were once smoking hot. The bottom feeders come out and drove a 7 percent rally on oil stocks but now they're cheap again. (I bought BEXP because it's not likely we're going to stop needing oil in the next 5 to 10 years.)

I'm buying real estate and commodities for the most part, but couldn't resist BEXP and Citi

Seems like most of what you read in the papers is designed to either sell papers (US) or shape public opinion. (Sing)
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Postby wawro106 » Sun, 19 Apr 2009 12:58 pm

Good call buddy!

A friend of mine dumped 5000USD at 2.09$ and sold it at like 4.10$ in 2 days.

It seems like positive economic news at slowly trickling in. First GS outperformed, than JP Morgan, followed by Citi. Singapore is definitely lagging the US in term of macro economic shift. I heard that Singapore is only get its first hit right now....

Definitely not good news... and I chose the best possible time to graduate from college.

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Postby ksl » Sun, 19 Apr 2009 5:36 pm

pakjohn wrote:I generally don't trade stocks but when Citibank dropped to a dollar it was worth a 1000 USD gamble. It's doubled in price because of bottom feeders like me. I see oil stocks still dropping and people were selling oil exploration company stocks that were once smoking hot. The bottom feeders come out and drove a 7 percent rally on oil stocks but now they're cheap again. (I bought BEXP because it's not likely we're going to stop needing oil in the next 5 to 10 years.)

I'm buying real estate and commodities for the most part, but couldn't resist BEXP and Citi

Seems like most of what you read in the papers is designed to either sell papers (US) or shape public opinion. (Sing)


Nice to see someone with a head on their shoulders, you should do well, you have the right game plan, and can possibly use it to your advantage, over a quarter period.

I use T/A myself doing short term in Taiwan, and because i know the products and the market too, and even though i pump in the profit's since 2000, I have seen them depreciate in real value terms by 20%, I'm by no means an expert in finance, but I'm doing better on my own, than if i had invested through an institution, and this way, win or lose, it will be my own fault, at least i have control of my own destiny.

I just wish i had have learnt investing when i was younger, and not just in the last 8 years, I could actually make a living on it in Taiwan, the 4 years i was there, and occasionally i get stuck in but it doesn't matter, I'm getting good dividends too.

A simple technique is all it takes, no need to go deep into charting, I believe it only complicates matters, so a simple head and shoulders is enough over a quarter. But and I say but, if you are trading cycles you must know when they are happening with products. I never do options, to much like gambling for me, 50/50 risk will do me.

Well done pakjohn


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