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The only way is up!

Discuss your views about Singapore business & economy, current policies & issues, starting a business in Singapore.
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BodyBlitz
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The only way is up!

Postby BodyBlitz » Tue, 27 Jan 2009 11:46 pm

Call me crazy or maybe a little too optimistic, but i feel that recession may have become too overrated by now.

Doom and gloom, yada yada...so we're already at the rock bottom, shit has hit the fan and everyone has festering warts growing on their money which no body wishes to touch.

I believe that the only way is up from now on, no point whining about the past, lets get out of that frame on mind and be positive.

In this period, what opportunities would be a good direction to take?
Investments/business etc. lets discuss it.
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Postby durain » Wed, 28 Jan 2009 2:52 am

sell chicken (with) rice? :P

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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 28 Jan 2009 7:24 am

direction to take? How about take cover!

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Postby pakjohn » Wed, 28 Jan 2009 2:07 pm

While I appreciate the value of a positive outlook, I don't think there is a bottom at which point everything will get better. The credit crisis is not fully unravelled so more pain to come. Look for the jobless rate to skyrocket now as large companies start to consolidate, seeking profit from eliminating redunancy while increasing market presence. The drug industry has already started; airlines, car manufacturers, electronics, etc will follow. Big MNC's can snap up competitors at a bargain right now, tens of thousands will be left without jobs in these buyouts due to redudancy.
Pfizer is buying Wyeth, close to 10,000 people will lose jobs in that transaction alone. Look for Merck to follow suit with another round of acquistitions.
As for opportunities, think green and be an innovator, or look for others that are doing it and buy in!
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Postby -jt- » Wed, 28 Jan 2009 2:24 pm

markets will recover before the real economy does. it has and will be repeated

but were looking at an L shaped recovery.

invest in commodities and any company who's earnings potential has not been impaired. but mind you they will not be back to their former prices. the mania reached before will never return not for a very long time.

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Postby BodyBlitz » Wed, 28 Jan 2009 4:16 pm

Well there are simple services/items that people will still need, maybe something that the expats community would appreciate.

Not saying that it'll be the next big thing to earn you your first million but rather small steps just to get by, a secondary source of income or a potential seed that will sprout later on after all the gloom is over and the sun comes out of the clouds.
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Postby simonmobiledisco » Wed, 28 Jan 2009 7:48 pm

Pakjohn: were you statements Sing centric or a global?

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Postby ksl » Thu, 29 Jan 2009 12:02 am

simonmobiledisco wrote:Pakjohn: were you statements Sing centric or a global?
They have got to be global, the domino effect works that way, and major banks like Barcleys have yet to declare their losses, the impact on the finance sector of Singapore will be hit like a shock wave from hell.

Another 6 months at least before the bottonm is reached, and it is quite obvious, if you look at the impact of various effects from war, 9/11 and oil over the past. That the markets are being artificially pumped, in my opinion, the next couple of months will see a drastic fall, I am expecting the TSE for example to end up around 3500 , based on past experience, a lot of consolidation will take place.

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Postby pakjohn » Thu, 29 Jan 2009 4:02 pm

Pakjohn: were you statements Sing centric or a global?


My comments were meant to reflect the global situation; I really don't know enough about Singapore economics to offer an opinion for local forecast. As for investing, I'd buy commodities for the longer term and ignore the peaks and valleys you'll see for the next 18 months or so. But, I'm a little risk adverse, being an old guy and all. :)
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Postby MikeDirnt » Fri, 06 Feb 2009 11:48 pm

pakjohn wrote:While I appreciate the value of a positive outlook, I don't think there is a bottom at which point everything will get better.

we learn from the past, there is bound to be a bottom

i have been busy adding a lot of stocks into my portfolio from the past few months
Guides and information -> Singapore Stocks

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Postby ksl » Sat, 07 Feb 2009 12:09 am

MikeDirnt wrote:
pakjohn wrote:While I appreciate the value of a positive outlook, I don't think there is a bottom at which point everything will get better.

we learn from the past, there is bound to be a bottom

i have been busy adding a lot of stocks into my portfolio from the past few months
Ouch! Let's hope they can ride the waves, I'm expecting a big drop this year from my own research, although most of my portfolio is in Taiwan, the market is far too high, in comparison to the main shocks since 2000, I'm really expecting the Taiex to come down to 3500 before i consider buying in, but that's only based on past troubles. I could well be wrong but my gut say's let Barcleys bank UK report their losses before buying anything more. Although you will be able to make something on the rebounds, I'm sure and there will be many to come. But be careful of companies folding and consolidations.

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Postby jpatokal » Mon, 09 Feb 2009 7:58 pm

-jt- wrote:invest in commodities and any company who's earnings potential has not been impaired. but mind you they will not be back to their former prices. the mania reached before will never return not for a very long time.

STI fell to 805 (!) in 1999, and climbed back to 2500 by the end of 2000. Anybody with the guts to invest thus got his money back in triplicate.

STI was almost 4000 in late 2007, and is 1800 now. I wouldn't bet on seeing 5000 anytime soon, but it'll be back up above 3000 in a few years' time...
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Postby kwekjustin » Fri, 27 Feb 2009 5:49 am

had it already hit rock bottom?? guess in another 6mths time then we will see rock bottom. then its time to get 'blue'!
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Postby sundaymorningstaple » Fri, 27 Feb 2009 7:15 am

kwekjustin wrote:had it already hit rock bottom?? guess in another 6mths time then we will see rock bottom. then its time to get 'blue'!


I am curious. On what previous data are you basing your assumption? See there has been nothing global like this since 1929?


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