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The Current State of the Housing Market

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Guowei58
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The Current State of the Housing Market

Post by Guowei58 » Wed, 20 Feb 2008 2:39 pm

I'm curious as to people's views of the current state of the housing market - is it still pretty frothy?

My sense (after a two week intensive search for a condo) is that the market has slowed down quite a bit, and the absorption rates for new condos are very low right now, especially for the higher end properties.

For example, i recently signed a 2-year lease at 8@Mount Sophia, a new building, and the building is 70% empty right now (2-3 months after opening). My guess is that most of the people who bought initially were investors, and the inventory is taking longer to rent out.

Don't know if this is just a short-term blip...

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Post by Bafana » Thu, 21 Feb 2008 6:31 pm

The current market is insane.

Waiting for bubble to burst.
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ksl
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Re: The Current State of the Housing Market

Post by ksl » Fri, 22 Feb 2008 1:42 am

Guowei58 wrote:I'm curious as to people's views of the current state of the housing market - is it still pretty frothy?

My sense (after a two week intensive search for a condo) is that the market has slowed down quite a bit, and the absorption rates for new condos are very low right now, especially for the higher end properties.

For example, i recently signed a 2-year lease at 8@Mount Sophia, a new building, and the building is 70% empty right now (2-3 months after opening). My guess is that most of the people who bought initially were investors, and the inventory is taking longer to rent out.

Don't know if this is just a short-term blip...
I personlly don't see prices dropping at all, and the statistics, show they have moderated, but are not expected to drop.

It is all a balancing act, within the industry, and with Sing Government plans to increase the population to 6 million, I honestly don't see any fall in price, for a very very long time to come... With all the industry developments going on in the tourism industry, it's only going to stoke the fire...new job creation is expected to be around 60 to 80 thousand, with much more talent on the way.

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Post by Bafana » Fri, 22 Feb 2008 9:36 am

Think that's pretty optimistic as local talent and regional talent for 1/3 cost has advanced greatly and reliance on western talent has diminished or is only being paid for at more realistic rates then before. The majority of Expat Packages are dead or will die due to economic reality.

Cannot see how talent salries can match the rental prices as they are now unless they are from high end groups nlike banking and dount there are 70-80k bankers waiting to relaocte to Singapore. Could be wrong on that but don't think so.

Even HDB rental is over 2K a month now in the East Coast - This is more then the average Income of a Singaporean. Still belive there is a bubble and the current circumstance is a created scenario rather then real market reaction.
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Post by Asian_Geekette » Fri, 22 Feb 2008 2:28 pm

Bafana wrote: Even HDB rental is over 2K a month now in the East Coast - This is more then the average Income of a Singaporean. Still belive there is a bubble and the current circumstance is a created scenario rather then real market reaction.
Most single Singaporeans still live with their families (parents). I found out that if they want to buy their own HDB unit, they have to be around 35 years old. If they're married, they can buy HDB without this age cut-off.
My business is not to remake myself, but make the absolute best out of what God made. -Robert Browning

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Post by ksl » Fri, 22 Feb 2008 6:10 pm

Bafana wrote:Think that's pretty optimistic as local talent and regional talent for 1/3 cost has advanced greatly and reliance on western talent has diminished or is only being paid for at more realistic rates then before. The majority of Expat Packages are dead or will die due to economic reality.

Cannot see how talent salries can match the rental prices as they are now unless they are from high end groups nlike banking and dount there are 70-80k bankers waiting to relaocte to Singapore. Could be wrong on that but don't think so.

Even HDB rental is over 2K a month now in the East Coast - This is more then the average Income of a Singaporean. Still belive there is a bubble and the current circumstance is a created scenario rather then real market reaction.
Hi Bafana, I wasn't actually thinking of western talent at all, when i made my assumptions.

My assumptions are based on Singapores wealth creation plans, which of course are monitored at the highest level of government planning, statistically quite easy to manage and control, even development progress, is slowed down, to meet the conditions of today, before authorising more development projects on housing.

It is already obvious, that government cannot meet the supply of jobs, they quote 60.000 for the IR and Casino projects....although unemployment is at it's lowest today, and they cannot even meet the demand now.

Your right that MLC are not even prepared to pay the extra costs, of expatriates, but you are forgetting that, expatriats from all walks of life, are now migrating to the HDB to save money, in turn HDB rental is moving up rapidly...wheels are in motion, they will and have slowed price hikes, but will not be reduced...This is not the same bubble of the late 90"s.

What you are seeing today is planned growth of Singapore, the GDP will increase, and therefore property prices will also increase in tandam, there is no signs of stagnation here, even if the USA is suffering.

I have also been monitoring Taiwans exports of specific products of which was supposed to have taken a hit becasue of the USA, however, all the companies so far have indicated record sales in January, indicating that people are still spending...even wallmart showed profit.

So I don't see, the the USA having any adverse effect yet on Singapores move forward, although it was noted, that the speed of growth was reduced to a more moderate level in the last quater, and I believe we haven't heard the last of the subprime issues, I only see a number of investment Companies getting hit, and a couple of major Companies, that have also invested in property like insurance companies.

Optimistic is me in a nutshell, anything to convert the negative to positive energy...although I am trying to be realistic, I just don't see any indications of melt down, below, what has been planned, to keep the wheels in Singapore turning.

If i'm not mistaken, plans for another 64,000 apartments are on the books, for development to start before 2010.

And in fact only this morning i had an agent trying to tempt me to sell, our property over the phone.

The only thing to watch and control is the inflation, incomes have got to rise...otherwise, unrest will be felt.....There is know way, its going to tail off yet, and especially rental prices....and a 3 bedroomed HDB is now bring 1800$, because expats are willing to pay it.

So all the high priced condo's have probably reached a ceiling in rentals, and have moderated in the last quarter, but not decreased, they will be rented out slowly, while HDB sees a surge.

HDB is the expatriate way of cutting costs, So MNC will look elsewhere for their talent, that only means, less from the west, to cut costs, doesn't mean the talent isn't extended.

So yes I am very optimistic of developments...we can do without all those toffee nosed wannabes, they will just move on to other pastures like Dubai or India. :wink:

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Post by Bafana » Sat, 23 Feb 2008 8:54 am

Very inetresting points mate.

Food for thought. Will have to reconsider my view though I still feel something is not quite right.

BTW I am very optimistic in life.
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Guowei58
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Post by Guowei58 » Wed, 27 Feb 2008 3:55 pm

Yep, i think the market is slowing down too, but certainly won't be a crash until something exogenous happens (SARs, Bird Flu, etc.)

However, rental and sale prices for higher end properties will stagnate - i just don't see a lot of people affording those prices. Even if you're in banking, prices are still very high...

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Post by KOTW » Wed, 27 Feb 2008 9:06 pm

Rental prices currenlty remain high, however, there is a significant supply of rental units available on the market.

If you do some searches on the various sites, you will notice an abundance(hundreds, if not thousands) of vacant properties.

Economics 101: With this much supply, it seems like a correction is inevitable in 2008.

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