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USA Recession & Stockmarket

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ksl
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USA Recession & Stockmarket

Postby ksl » Sat, 12 Jan 2008 2:43 am

The USA recession has been officially declared, and the markets are down as expected..., its been forecast to get worse around middle of the year..and things are not at all looking good for the future..

Whats going to happen by 2010

Its been predicted that oil will sore in price over the 100$ by 2010

Interest rates will continue to go up, and 100's of thousands are expected to lose their homes

Prices of everything will sky rocket.

Shares gilts and cash will lose value too

Source Hemscott. UK

How do we protect, what we have, and also beat the market at the same time.....

I personally feel safe, with my investments, even though the portfolio is down 35%, I've seen my portfolio down 60% in the past, but I do have faith in my companies.

In fact I have been purchasing, because there are some incredible bargains, to be had, and the way to not lose out over the next couple of years, is to monitor your shares until they peak in the next 6 months, and sell off....although do not sell below your cost....if you are not in the black hold tight...But look for some bargains while the market is at its low, and accumilate sound solid growth companies.

One such growth company looks like this....You can see by the splits, that are done each year...this share was at 108 last week...But do not invest in it, without doing your own research..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=3034.TW&t=5y

My point is, that buying opportunities are many fold, and the markets for the next year are going to be up and down like a yoyo, so the theory of buying in a bear market are sound...one can still make money...while the rest of the portfolio is down....

And just to put a little perspective on the above...it is reported that A.P Moller, The worlds largest shipping line, Maersk shipping, is sacking 3000 workers, becasue container shipments to the USA are down...


Many of my own shares will be peaking, so I will be cashing in, when the opportunity arises...and it will arise at least once in the next 6 months, knowing full well, they are going to drop, much lower in the next year.

Although I must stress again, that one should not panick and sell off...but accumilate..strong cheap companies, with good growth prospects.

We will see growth in special memory, not DDR memory, we will also see growth in LED and LCD TV, Solar Chips, and other energy saving sectors..traditional steel and utilities will continue to rise, as oil rises too, along with freight and shipping....

I remeber saying SGX will hit 11.50, it went on to hit 11.10 and I presume, it is not yet at its lowest yet, I've not yet had a look at the T/A, but it will be like this for a long period, up and down on a weekly merry go round... Ist quarter trading will be weak...although I expect some of the hot sectors, will outperform in the second quarter..before dividend payout!

Do your own research,, this is only my opinion, to minimise my risks in the market place.

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Postby MikeDirnt » Mon, 28 Jan 2008 2:42 pm

just happen to read this thread.

this is the best opportunity to pick up some oversold blue chip stocks. SGX is still overvalued IMO.

Happy shopping. Stocks are on sale now. it takes alot of guts to enter the market now. just remember to spread your stocks purchase to minimise risk of a further down trend
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Postby ksl » Mon, 28 Jan 2008 6:19 pm

Read your blog, I believe you need some basic T/A, to help you read the market signals, stick to the head & shoulders over a 3 month graph, it's much easier, to spot the support lines! Cosco China, took a beating I believe...(Not checked) a friend of a friend just went down 30k. and another one 20k, because their calls came in. A silly mistake in a down market trend, is to try and beat, the fall, without experience of using tools of the trade, (T/A) and even then it is risky.

With US having economic woe's, it pays to use a little more caution, when evaluating US stocks, at this time of the year...my opinion would be to look elsewhere, this little set back is going on for along while to come, in my opinion. Although there is some excellent high growth bluechip stocks that are going cheap in Asia.

I also see you have Genting, which I too am accumilating for the longer term, although It may drop even further yet, I've not bothered checking the T/A lately. But the SGX would have to break the 8.5 barrier for Genting to slip below the 60 mark, and if it breaks the 8.5 support, its, next support is around 7.5... happy hunting :wink: :)

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Postby MikeDirnt » Tue, 29 Jan 2008 8:42 am

thanks for visiting my blog.

the problem is with TA, it is not easy to identify the bottom. you always get into false signal. maybe my TA skills are not that good. but my good TA indicators, are the 200d sma and macd histogram. buy stocks below this 200d sma should be good enough coupled with fundamenally good stocks. so i got nothing to worry if my timing is lousy, as long the fundamentals are good, i will still hold.

i entered cosco at a very good price, and got no regret of not selling it at $8. its ok, its just a matter of time before it can rebound again. very solid and fundametally stable company

yes Genting is a must have speculative stock to keep. with the casino coming, im just waiting for its price to skyrocket. got a few more years to hold.

as of writing, dow rebound +176 from very negative openings. IMO this is the best time to accumulate in stages. i have already averaged down 2 of my stocks :)
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Postby ksl » Tue, 29 Jan 2008 2:49 pm

MikeDirnt wrote:thanks for visiting my blog.

the problem is with TA, it is not easy to identify the bottom. you always get into false signal. maybe my TA skills are not that good. but my good TA indicators, are the 200d sma and macd histogram. buy stocks below this 200d sma should be good enough coupled with fundamenally good stocks. so i got nothing to worry if my timing is lousy, as long the fundamentals are good, i will still hold.

i entered cosco at a very good price, and got no regret of not selling it at $8. its ok, its just a matter of time before it can rebound again. very solid and fundametally stable company

yes Genting is a must have speculative stock to keep. with the casino coming, im just waiting for its price to skyrocket. got a few more years to hold.

as of writing, dow rebound +176 from very negative openings. IMO this is the best time to accumulate in stages. i have already averaged down 2 of my stocks :)


always get into false signal


I guess this is were most people fall down, the idea, of T/A is not to use it as a tool, to predict peaks and bottoms....the inborn psychological factor, (EGO) is the killer here.

One needs, to create a plan and stick with it, I always, use the rule of thumb, sell, when the share peaks between 10 and 14%....even on a bull run, I would stick to my plan.

I've not lost in almost 8 years now, in a downward market, I never try to chase the bottom, either, I stick more to bluechip good value growth shares in the high tech sector.

I never touch shares like cosco, because I like high volatility short term swing trading, I've only ever dumped 2 shares in 8 years, due to opportunity cost.

The trend now is a buyers paradise, although one may have to wait until the uncertainty is over,

Genting is a must have for long term, so accumilate, is very wise.

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Basics

Postby cks » Wed, 06 Feb 2008 12:05 am

I will stick to the basics

Read below;
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article ... IOiOu7YWsA

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Postby keepitreal » Wed, 06 Feb 2008 9:56 am

no wonder your portfolio is done if you are taking advice from Yahoo...

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Postby MikeDirnt » Wed, 19 Mar 2008 8:23 am

so after the crazy move by fed, dow was up by more than 400 points :shock: then if not sustainable, it will drop by 500 points :lol:
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Postby ksl » Wed, 19 Mar 2008 6:08 pm

MikeDirnt wrote:so after the crazy move by fed, dow was up by more than 400 points :shock: then if not sustainable, it will drop by 500 points :lol:


I don't see it helping much in the near future, with bearstearns going belly up, i am expecting to see quite a few more yet! It wouldn't surprise me if Berkshire Hathaway is caught up in it to.

There isn't much left in these markets here Taiwan is still volatile, enough to take some cream, and some really very good growth companies to be had for a bargain, I'm just swing trading in the growth companies at the moment....All the foreign investors are sitting on the side lines, and not investing, but the money is there waiting in Taiwan.

And there are plenty of bargains in UK too, just look at Arm dropping like a stone...I actually dumped on one of my favourites, to take the cream elsewhere....I like it like this, although it's best to have some cash around, I'm also expecting the SGX to drop to around 5.45 in the short term. Happy hunting!

Here's some interesting pointers, if insight doesn't come natutral

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/200 ... money.aspx

To play safe, stay with some good growth companies, that are offering bargains, and swing trade them, or keep them, doesn't really matter if you get locked in, for the long term, they will be the first to take off, but maybe cyclic...do a little home work, and swing between 10 and 14%, don't even think of the highs and lows!

Focus on the % to cream each time. In this kind of market, there is only one way to go, and that is down, so don't panick, take the little rallies as they come, and expect the downturn in the long run.

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Postby jpatokal » Wed, 19 Mar 2008 8:33 pm

In the long run, stockmarkets appreciate by 7% per year. So if you're betting on stocks continuing to fall, you'll need to be 14% smarter than everybody else just to stay even.
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Postby Winxkid » Thu, 20 Mar 2008 1:37 am

now is not the time for moderate players like Us to play unless You are able to find a stock that does not directly in connection with the US. China will suffer losses too. Everyone is expecting the worst to take place in June. Almost every company is take measures to prevent the cycle from taking a deadly blow to them, for example, withdraw investment and on-hold.

Companies whom had indirectly link with the US market will not be spared too. (U see, i'm a "safety" investor), so, in my view, I think it's better to wait till some big players decided to play a part in the rescue mission (altro it might most probably takes trillions).

I'll wait until value stocks are much under-value first :oops:

Just personal view, no flaming. Thanks :oops:
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Postby MikeDirnt » Thu, 20 Mar 2008 2:28 am

Winxkid wrote:I'll wait until value stocks are much under-value first :oops:

here i dont need to wait, i can easily find undervalued stocks. but the main problem is not enough capital. :(

i have been slowly averaging down on some stocks.
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Postby ksl » Thu, 20 Mar 2008 6:46 am

MikeDirnt wrote:
Winxkid wrote:I'll wait until value stocks are much under-value first :oops:

here i dont need to wait, i can easily find undervalued stocks. but the main problem is not enough capital. :(

i have been slowly averaging down on some stocks.


Well as a rule of thumb on the Taiex for myself, it is quite often that shares plummet 50 to 80%, in a panic, and it's only being held up by the election, at the moment, although some industries are holding very well indeed, especially the main LCD TV manufacturing shares. short term, they are very volatile, and rewarding, because they do meet strong resistance at there peaks, and often fall 15% to 21%, before rebounding to the peak again, if it was a bull, it would just push up further, but the conditions are against, hence the expected fall in the future.

The next breakthrough in technolgy, is well under way, although raw materials are hard to get hold of and its expensive, but the world needs it, so it's going to boom...at the moment I picked up shares 2/3rd off there peak, and they may drop further, but these should be accumilated, so keep your eye on Solar VP, which are also paying good dividends too, so you can safely swing trade them down, and feel secure, if you get stuck in. The economic fall out, make these growth industries ideal.

But I will be surprised if Flat panels drop more than 35% from there peaks, and it is still a sound speculation in growth anyway for the next couple of years in my own opinion, but please do your own research, don't act on what i say!

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Postby nitesoutsg » Fri, 21 Mar 2008 9:02 am

i believe the market will still go down more,
it is just waiting for new bad new to come out

but it is a good time to get some bargain stock and do some short term profit

SGX seem to fit this

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Postby ksl » Sat, 22 Mar 2008 5:50 am

nitesoutsg wrote:i believe the market will still go down more,
it is just waiting for new bad new to come out

but it is a good time to get some bargain stock and do some short term profit

SGX seem to fit this


Friday foreign investors pumped 25 billion, into the Taiex, if KMT win on the 22nd, we will see, this market surge...


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