Splatted wrote:But look, you hold on to your viewpoint. I'll certainly still be here next year and the year after, and we can compare notes on just how much prices really have dropped for blank Blue-rays.
The main problem right now is the "format war"
They generate headlines for both Blu-ray and HD-DVD, but at the same time is holding back adoption. I for one would go all Blu-ray immediately if the format is "determined".
How about we compare prices one year after
a clear format has been adopted?
Yes, though this format war wont have any clear-cut winner as happened with the VHS/Beta war.
The standard that will be eventually adopted will be hybrid drives, that can read-write both HD DVD and Blu-ray. These already exist. That sort of thing couldn't have happened with VHS/Beta as there was that distinct tape size difference. (As an aside, the 'better' technology lost in the tape format war).
It will eventualy get to the point that the hybrid players are no more expensive than dvd's players are today, and that includes the drive version for pc's/laptops.
writable media, however will go a different direction.
If you look now on the market, most of what is being sold are the single layered Blue-Ray disks which can store no more than 25GB .
There's a danger of history repeating itself once again in the similar way as DVD5 vs DVD9 format, and that even though movies will come out on the 50GB sized disks, any widespread adoption of writable media will be of the lower sized 25GB disk. As it stands, the price of 50GB disks cost more than 2x the price of 25gb disks.
But here's the real kicker...
Blue-ray as a technology is not that new. They had fully functional (single layered) players back in 1993.
Yet, they waited till dvd industry hasn't fully matured before they rolled out this new standard.
Guess what? There are now the possibility to store 500GB on a single DVD, and others claiming it will be possible to store 5TB on a single disk. (see links for bit of light reading).
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/07/06 ... gular_dvd/
http://www.tfot.info/articles/56/Mempil ... -a-CD.html
You will find that once the protection is fully broke on copying movies in this technology (and we're yet to see what Blu-ray is to roll out with BD+ protection), the record and movie industry will insist on upgrading the standard, which will include a completely different level of protection against copying.
I suspect, that just as prices are becoming 'reasonable' (as they are now with DVD in most parts of the word. You can pick up DVD players for under $50 now), is when the newer format will be rolled out.
But this current mass-adoption of blu-ray/hddvd wont happen in most parts of the world for at least 3+ more years. What will drive the conversion suddenly, surprisingly will be the TV industry. In the next few years quite a few parts of the world including Singapore, and Australia will be abandoning the analogue tv transmission system and switching to Digital only.
People will then have a choice between upgrading their TV's or alternatively buying a digital set-top box. I believe most will buy new tv's as the cost for LCD's and plasma's has dropped considerably over the last 2 years and will be even more cheaper by that time.
People will notice the picture difference between their old DVD's and HD transmission, and it will be this that will be the impetus for the majority
to upgrade DVD to a hybrid HDDVD/bluray player.