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Why the US stock market will crash in the near future.

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Oriental
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Why the US stock market will crash in the near future.

Postby Oriental » Tue, 30 May 2006 10:14 pm

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Last edited by Oriental on Tue, 13 Jun 2006 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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jpatokal
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Postby jpatokal » Tue, 30 May 2006 10:40 pm

Global crash led by the US? I think you're overstating America's importance. I broadly agree with what Faber says -- the US dollar will continue to slowly decline and Asian banks will shift out of Treasuries, creating a downward spiral -- but I don't see why this should cause a collapse elsewhere in the world. The interesting thing about the Asian economic boom of the last few years has been that substantial amounts of investment and exports are staying within Asia, with the Chinese and (to a lesser extent) Indian economies hoovering up increasing amounts of imports from other Asian countries.

As for gold hitting US$1000 anytime soon, prices have dropped over US$100/oz in the last few weeks...
Vaguely heretical thoughts on travel technology at Gyrovague

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Postby ct2389 » Thu, 01 Jun 2006 12:08 pm

Hmm...very good information, but do you think that US will affect Asia?
How about Asia/China unit trust?
good to buy or sell? any advise? :shock:

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...

Postby ringo100 » Thu, 01 Jun 2006 10:42 pm

I think the US economy has a massive impact on all world economies and will do for foreseeable future. Asia’s current success is as an exporter. The only sizable domestic market is Japan. Very few Asian economies has significant internally generated growth.

The article is over a year old so not very current.

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ct2389
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Re: ...

Postby ct2389 » Fri, 02 Jun 2006 10:33 am

ringo100 wrote:I think the US economy has a massive impact on all world economies and will do for foreseeable future. Asia’s current success is as an exporter. The only sizable domestic market is Japan. Very few Asian economies has significant internally generated growth.

The article is over a year old so not very current.


How about China? will it be a special case?
The domectic growth might be greater than what we think...looking at the on coming event in 2008....
but the fact is, US indeed impact the whole market...hmmm :???:

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ksl
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Re: ...

Postby ksl » Fri, 02 Jun 2006 12:08 pm

ringo100 wrote:I think the US economy has a massive impact on all world economies and will do for foreseeable future. Asia’s current success is as an exporter. The only sizable domestic market is Japan. Very few Asian economies has significant internally generated growth.

The article is over a year old so not very current.


Agreed!

I believe in the fact that what goes up must come down over time, so yes a crash, is very likely to happen. However a crash doesn't always mean you go bust, so it doesn't really worry me, to the extent of panik.

I also believe gold will hit 1000$, however what matters is at what price you buy, and how long you can afford to keep it, that is to say, what kind of investment are you making, there are many factors to work out.

To make money, it must work! and if it's not working, you will lose over a period of time. Opportunity cost is just has important.

The US market impact in my opinion does effect global markets and will do for a very long time to come, no matter if China is increasing at the fastest pace in the world, their culture, management and work force of a billion or more, will take another 30 years to reach Singapore standards.

One needs to look at a Country's risk factor, and China is high risk, you can see how stupid and speculative the market is, with the IPO of China Bank. China Bank is still at least 10 years behind Singaporean banks and Singaporean Banks are still behind those of many western banks and in my opinion the bank was well over priced.

Since the issue of credit cards, the importance of debt control is only one of a many factors, China lack these controls and so do many other Asian Countries.

The Chinese and Indian emerging markets are Speculative by market traders, when purchasing blocks of millions, they have done their homework, and protect their investment with the minimum of risk, however joe bloggs does not, he dives in by following the trend, shares are rising so he buys and gets stuck because of priorities.

These priorities are informative and one must act impulsively to make money and keep it working, lock in profits. Joe bloggs normally gets creamed, loses, his investment becuase he was to slow to get out.

Again it all depends on method and style, along with ones own risk aversion, and balanced evaluation of information.

I personally have two methods of play, one portfolio for no longer than 1 year, that is to say buy and selling on a daily basis to lock in profits, if a share gets locked in and the drop is significant not to sell, I move it over into a long term investment of 5 years, or i cut my losses only if my risk factor is sure of an opportunity to make up the loss quickly.

A crash now and then is only a good indication to start investing. buy low sell high, and lets be honest does a crash mean all companies are bankrupt? You only lose, when you sell at a loss or the Company is dead.

It is my opinion that i have a natural talent for making well balanced and informative evaluations, to minimise my risks, and for me, the first thing I did, before speculating in the market place, was to evaluate my own risk aversion, I was pleased to found myself well balanced.

There are many self tests available and I am positive many people taking these will get the biggest shock of their lives in some cases.

I know of 3 MBA executives that have done the test, only to find out they have rsik aversion!

There are many very good potential China Investments, but it is wise to understand the products and do solid research before jumping in.

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Postby ct2389 » Fri, 02 Jun 2006 3:43 pm

Good advise for China market, maybe it's wiser to lock our profit 1st...
Thks Ksl


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