Rents are peaking!

[Lisafuller]

Thank you for your comments bro.
Yes it’s the agents who are also trying to influence the owners actually, the same is in my case.
That’s why I mentioned that greed is a real thing.
Yesterday I informed them that I would not consider renewing if they increase the rent to 3900$.
The agent told me that she will discuss with the owner and come back to me for a 2 year rental period.
In the meantime I am already making arrangements to move to another place.

How much is the other unit you're planning on moving to? If the agent comes back to you with a satisfactory offer will you still move?

Lisa fuller I decided to keep a budget just in range of 3000$.
I have looked at some condo units in other areas that are in similar range but the sqft size is a bit small in range of 450sqft.
Not explored the option of looking at HDB unit yet but that is also on the plan.
I will still be willing to renew the contract if they give me an offer of close to 3200$ for 2 years.
Think it will be worth 2400$ a year to avoid all the moving and getting used to a new place again.

Yes, moving is such a pain, but 450 sqft seems really small, is it far off from the size of your current home?

[x9200]

What you are saying in this thread is form me like living in a different city. Based on the rental prices in my condo (600+ units) I can only see rentals reaching some sort of plateau with still some up going trend. When we moved here in ca 10yo well over 20 units were offered to rent and such situation remained for coming years. For last 1.5 y it is more like 5 at any time. I also checked all the places I lived in earlier or was interested at some time and everywhere the situation looks the same - a few units available now, plenty in the past. This is all backed up by URA transactions, and 600 units is rather large estate. Don't want to spoil your optimistic outlook but with this peaking down and a big vacuum is more like a wishful thinking. I really don't think we are at this point yet or are HDBs that different?

I think each micro market has its own dynamics. I am mainly looking at HDBs. condos are now well beyond my reach.

You can take a look at D22 district ads in the popular real estate website. In 2021, I hardly saw any units vacant, but now I see a lot and hardly anybody looking for them. Just 3 Indian families bumping into each other. The Malaysians have all long moved to JB. So it kind of makes sense.

Actually.... I was tempted to write it earlier, you should also look for condos but I was under impression you would rather save a few dollars than upgrade... I am renting paying very similar figures you mentioned here, 4k for 3BR, ca 110sm condo. The difference (in average) is 5-10% assuming bringing the asking price down. It is really funny to see that gap so small.

[Lisafuller]

Back when I was renting, I came across a lot of jokers who were hoping to get lucky and asking 40-50% above market rent. Don’t waste your time with these jokers, they are not serious about renting the unit and don’t deserve the time of day. I still remember the last joker I encountered, I told him straight to his face that the price he was asking is way too high and I told him what the market rent was for his place. He didn’t care, so I immediately left. There is no explanation or logic for these kinds of people, other than one — they are hoping to get lucky and are willing to wait long-long for a sucker to come along… if that ever happens. Even if this kind of landlord comes down to market level, you don’t want to be the one renting from them. They are just opportunists who will always look for a way to screw you.

It is not really about the outliers here. But almost all mass market 3 bedder HDBs are asking for $4200 and then they say they want small family.

I wonder how many people here earn so much to spend 4.2k on rent? DP holders are not even allowed to work, if they could they would bring in some income to offset the rent.

After COVID, due to Malaysian workers stuck here, a few houses managed to somehow bid up their asking rents. This just meant everyone now is asking the high rents. But people don't have those kind of salaries.

So I expect the houses to stay vacant and then the owners will reduce their expectations. I expect 3 bedder HDBs rent to come down to 3.5k from the current 4.2k

I believe many employers still provide some kind of housing allowance to foreign employees. This is the case for the vast majority of expats at my employer. Being a local expat (like me) is an outlier, and I’d say roughly half of the local expats at my employer are trailing spouses (already taken care of). This allowance should be a factor in rental rates here.

Back when I was renting, the first thing realtors used to ask me: what is your budget, to which I replied — I have no budget, my employer does not cover any of my housing expenses! They seemed shocked by my response, but that is the reality.

I think most still have their housing expenses covered by their employers (partial or full).

Some of my friends who work for International Schools mentioned that the school pay them a housing stipend, which they used to use to cover rental costs (and keep the rest). Since the rental hikes some have had to renegotiate their allowances.

[Lisafuller]

Yeah, I know exclusively about the banking industry. Expat packages is given only for LTA(long term assignments) from the head office, for 3-5 years or so. This is at senior levels and they rent condos in posh locations and they are very few of them.

We are talking about public housing lowest strata housing here. I mean it can't go below this, without compromising on human dignity. Yet these houses are asking crazy 4.2k.

We noticed a funny thing though. The last 3 houses I went and saw, there are only 3 prospective Indian tenants and we are bumping into each other for the house viewing, lol. So it is like there is a big vacuum of demand right now. Only 2-3 people are looking at 30-40 houses.

The whole thing is going to implode very soon.

You think it's to fulfill EIP requirements?

[Lisafuller]

What you are saying in this thread is form me like living in a different city. Based on the rental prices in my condo (600+ units) I can only see rentals reaching some sort of plateau with still some up going trend. When we moved here in ca 10yo well over 20 units were offered to rent and such situation remained for coming years. For last 1.5 y it is more like 5 at any time. I also checked all the places I lived in earlier or was interested at some time and everywhere the situation looks the same - a few units available now, plenty in the past. This is all backed up by URA transactions, and 600 units is rather large estate. Don't want to spoil your optimistic outlook but with this peaking down and a big vacuum is more like a wishful thinking. I really don't think we are at this point yet or are HDBs that different?

I think each micro market has its own dynamics. I am mainly looking at HDBs. condos are now well beyond my reach.

You can take a look at D22 district ads in the popular real estate website. In 2021, I hardly saw any units vacant, but now I see a lot and hardly anybody looking for them. Just 3 Indian families bumping into each other. The Malaysians have all long moved to JB. So it kind of makes sense.

Actually.... I was tempted to write it earlier, you should also look for condos but I was under impression you would rather save a few dollars than upgrade... I am renting paying very similar figures you mentioned here, 4k for 3BR, ca 110sm condo. The difference (in average) is 5-10% assuming bringing the asking price down. It is really funny to see that gap so small.

Actually there are quite a few condos with rentals of less than 4K. Obviously location tends to be quite inaccessible/far from CBD but this is to be expected.

[NYY1]

What you are saying in this thread is form me like living in a different city. Based on the rental prices in my condo (600+ units) I can only see rentals reaching some sort of plateau with still some up going trend. When we moved here in ca 10yo well over 20 units were offered to rent and such situation remained for coming years. For last 1.5 y it is more like 5 at any time. I also checked all the places I lived in earlier or was interested at some time and everywhere the situation looks the same - a few units available now, plenty in the past. This is all backed up by URA transactions, and 600 units is rather large estate. Don't want to spoil your optimistic outlook but with this peaking down and a big vacuum is more like a wishful thinking. I really don't think we are at this point yet or are HDBs that different?

I think each micro market has its own dynamics. I am mainly looking at HDBs. condos are now well beyond my reach.

You can take a look at D22 district ads in the popular real estate website. In 2021, I hardly saw any units vacant, but now I see a lot and hardly anybody looking for them. Just 3 Indian families bumping into each other. The Malaysians have all long moved to JB. So it kind of makes sense.

Actually.... I was tempted to write it earlier, you should also look for condos but I was under impression you would rather save a few dollars than upgrade... I am renting paying very similar figures you mentioned here, 4k for 3BR, ca 110sm condo. The difference (in average) is 5-10% assuming bringing the asking price down. It is really funny to see that gap so small.

Just curious, how old is your building and what's being built around it (if anything)? 3BR, 1,200 Sq ft wouldn't be new but not ancient either. Guessing 20xx build (perhaps it was pretty new when you moved in).

The ones I've seen really flatline this year are a) high absolute dollar rent but old buildings - seems like at some threshold people that can pay that much are sensitive to the condition, and b) smaller units where there is new competition coming very soon (commoditized box that is no longer the newest).

The indices have still been ticking up this year, which matches what you see. However, I have wondered if there is some bias upward from the inclusion of new units though.

[Wd40]

What you are saying in this thread is form me like living in a different city. Based on the rental prices in my condo (600+ units) I can only see rentals reaching some sort of plateau with still some up going trend. When we moved here in ca 10yo well over 20 units were offered to rent and such situation remained for coming years. For last 1.5 y it is more like 5 at any time. I also checked all the places I lived in earlier or was interested at some time and everywhere the situation looks the same - a few units available now, plenty in the past. This is all backed up by URA transactions, and 600 units is rather large estate. Don't want to spoil your optimistic outlook but with this peaking down and a big vacuum is more like a wishful thinking. I really don't think we are at this point yet or are HDBs that different?

I think each micro market has its own dynamics. I am mainly looking at HDBs. condos are now well beyond my reach.

You can take a look at D22 district ads in the popular real estate website. In 2021, I hardly saw any units vacant, but now I see a lot and hardly anybody looking for them. Just 3 Indian families bumping into each other. The Malaysians have all long moved to JB. So it kind of makes sense.

Actually.... I was tempted to write it earlier, you should also look for condos but I was under impression you would rather save a few dollars than upgrade... I am renting paying very similar figures you mentioned here, 4k for 3BR, ca 110sm condo. The difference (in average) is 5-10% assuming bringing the asking price down. It is really funny to see that gap so small.

Well, in my area D22, most condos are brand new and the pricing is insane. A 500 sqft studio is 4k, and the kitchen is totally non functional. More like you can cook Maggi there. 2 bedder condo's in my area are around 5k.

Also, my biggest priority is to be close to my daughter's school. It should ideally be a direct bus ride less than 30mins. My current house is 15mins bus ride for my daughter. This saving in time is a huge huge factor than any condo amenities, for us. We are very practical people, just need a simple neat and clean house with a decent size kitchen and living room. Ideal house size for us is 800sqft 3A HDB. Unfortunately, those are very rare. Usually the HDB are tiny 700sqft or you need to go for 4 room HDB just for size.

My current sweet spot of rent I am willing to pay is 3k. Although if I can renew my current house I can go to 3.3k max. So it is not saving a few dollars over a condo, it is several 100 dollars.

[x9200]

I think each micro market has its own dynamics. I am mainly looking at HDBs. condos are now well beyond my reach.

You can take a look at D22 district ads in the popular real estate website. In 2021, I hardly saw any units vacant, but now I see a lot and hardly anybody looking for them. Just 3 Indian families bumping into each other. The Malaysians have all long moved to JB. So it kind of makes sense.

Actually.... I was tempted to write it earlier, you should also look for condos but I was under impression you would rather save a few dollars than upgrade... I am renting paying very similar figures you mentioned here, 4k for 3BR, ca 110sm condo. The difference (in average) is 5-10% assuming bringing the asking price down. It is really funny to see that gap so small.

Actually there are quite a few condos with rentals of less than 4K. Obviously location tends to be quite inaccessible/far from CBD but this is to be expected.

It's nothing ulu-ulu, IIRC we are neighbors. Bukit Batok East. But it is not close to MRT. URA transactions for last 3 months for similar size are something like 3700-5300; 3900-4600 ignoring extrema.

[x9200]

I think each micro market has its own dynamics. I am mainly looking at HDBs. condos are now well beyond my reach.

You can take a look at D22 district ads in the popular real estate website. In 2021, I hardly saw any units vacant, but now I see a lot and hardly anybody looking for them. Just 3 Indian families bumping into each other. The Malaysians have all long moved to JB. So it kind of makes sense.

Actually.... I was tempted to write it earlier, you should also look for condos but I was under impression you would rather save a few dollars than upgrade... I am renting paying very similar figures you mentioned here, 4k for 3BR, ca 110sm condo. The difference (in average) is 5-10% assuming bringing the asking price down. It is really funny to see that gap so small.

Just curious, how old is your building and what's being built around it (if anything)? 3BR, 1,200 Sq ft wouldn't be new but not ancient either. Guessing 20xx build (perhaps it was pretty new when you moved in).

The ones I've seen really flatline this year are a) high absolute dollar rent but old buildings - seems like at some threshold people that can pay that much are sensitive to the condition, and b) smaller units where there is new competition coming very soon (commoditized box that is no longer the newest).

The indices have still been ticking up this year, which matches what you see. However, I have wondered if there is some bias upward from the inclusion of new units though.

2005. Was not that new but nothing to complain about. It does not appear/feel like an old place but I couId be already desensitized living there that long.

[NYY1]

Just curious, how old is your building and what's being built around it (if anything)? 3BR, 1,200 Sq ft wouldn't be new but not ancient either. Guessing 20xx build (perhaps it was pretty new when you moved in).

The ones I've seen really flatline this year are a) high absolute dollar rent but old buildings - seems like at some threshold people that can pay that much are sensitive to the condition, and b) smaller units where there is new competition coming very soon (commoditized box that is no longer the newest).

The indices have still been ticking up this year, which matches what you see. However, I have wondered if there is some bias upward from the inclusion of new units though.

2005. Was not that new but nothing to complain about. It does not appear/feel like an old place but I couId be already desensitized living there that long.

Understand and thanks for the commentary. FYI, I looked at one other development I know where most units are pretty much the same. Outlying area but very close proximity to MRT and not the newest but also not the oldest there (20xx TOP). If I just do a scatter plot and line of best fit, Nov 22 to July 23 shows an upward trend. Interestingly, rents had stalled out Jan - May of this year but are up about 10% in June and July. Also, the spread between high and low per month is narrowing a lot.

Bottom line, I guess it all depends...

[Wd40]

Just curious, how old is your building and what's being built around it (if anything)? 3BR, 1,200 Sq ft wouldn't be new but not ancient either. Guessing 20xx build (perhaps it was pretty new when you moved in).

The ones I've seen really flatline this year are a) high absolute dollar rent but old buildings - seems like at some threshold people that can pay that much are sensitive to the condition, and b) smaller units where there is new competition coming very soon (commoditized box that is no longer the newest).

The indices have still been ticking up this year, which matches what you see. However, I have wondered if there is some bias upward from the inclusion of new units though.

2005. Was not that new but nothing to complain about. It does not appear/feel like an old place but I couId be already desensitized living there that long.

Understand and thanks for the commentary. FYI, I looked at one other development I know where most units are pretty much the same. Outlying area but very close proximity to MRT and not the newest but also not the oldest there (20xx TOP). If I just do a scatter plot and line of best fit, Nov 22 to July 23 shows an upward trend. Interestingly, rents had stalled out Jan - May of this year but are up about 10% in June and July. Also, the spread between high and low per month is narrowing a lot.

Bottom line, I guess it all depends...

The demand supply is very nuanced very each micro market. For example in my area, the biggest draw is that there is an Indian intl school nearby. Mostly Indians love this area. But then the school term starts in march. So now in October, the demand is very thin. Only 3 Indians are looking for the same houses in our area, lol. So the owners must be smart enough to time the leases so that they start/end in March. Our lease originally started in march but it was a 1 and 1/2 year lease as previously HDB allowed only max 1 and half years. But subsequent renewals my lease is always 2 years renewal. So I have an upper hand right now in terms demand and supply.

[Wd40]

One thing to keep in mind, over the last 10 years, rents (at least indices) are up about 3% per year, hardly a glaring amount (people forget there was a supply glut in 2013-2018). That may be peak-to-peak, but even going back to 2007 the CAGR is a little less than 4%.

Basically, due to the lead times and inability to reduce supply, this is a market that is never in balance (one side always has the upper hand). After 2008 and 2013, rents fall 20% - 25%, although the rate of decline was quite different in the two cases. Given the 50%+ increase, that may sound like an easy number to see again, but I'm not so sure.

Housing in Singapore should have zero inflation. It is a very controlled asset. Also demand and supply is everything. I want to know how much the population has increased since 2013? From the MoM stats, foreigners population has been very stable and flat in Singapore over the past decade, yet several HDBs and condos have been built and MOP have been completed. So there is no way to justify the increase over the COVID period. I think prices will go back right to where they were in the next couple of years. As several more condos and HDBs are going to be completed over next few years and there is no appetite to increase foreigners inflow into Singapore.

[NYY1]

One thing to keep in mind, over the last 10 years, rents (at least indices) are up about 3% per year, hardly a glaring amount (people forget there was a supply glut in 2013-2018). That may be peak-to-peak, but even going back to 2007 the CAGR is a little less than 4%.

Basically, due to the lead times and inability to reduce supply, this is a market that is never in balance (one side always has the upper hand). After 2008 and 2013, rents fall 20% - 25%, although the rate of decline was quite different in the two cases. Given the 50%+ increase, that may sound like an easy number to see again, but I'm not so sure.

Housing in Singapore should have zero inflation. It is a very controlled asset. Also demand and supply is everything. I want to know how much the population has increased since 2013? From the MoM stats, foreigners population has been very stable and flat in Singapore over the past decade, yet several HDBs and condos have been built and MOP have been completed. So there is no way to justify the increase over the COVID period. I think prices will go back right to where they were in the next couple of years. As several more condos and HDBs are going to be completed over next few years and there is no appetite to increase foreigners inflow into Singapore.

Search Population in Brief. The total resident population (SC + PR) has increased from 3.845 million to 4.073 million. EP is basically flat, as you note, and SP is up 17k. Not sure on the housing stock since then (note, all of these figures are from 2013 to 2022). Probably also need to consider wage growth. There are also kids that no longer want to live at home; this is driving demand for housing units without changing the population figures.

[truthhurts1]

One thing to keep in mind, over the last 10 years, rents (at least indices) are up about 3% per year, hardly a glaring amount (people forget there was a supply glut in 2013-2018). That may be peak-to-peak, but even going back to 2007 the CAGR is a little less than 4%.

Basically, due to the lead times and inability to reduce supply, this is a market that is never in balance (one side always has the upper hand). After 2008 and 2013, rents fall 20% - 25%, although the rate of decline was quite different in the two cases. Given the 50%+ increase, that may sound like an easy number to see again, but I'm not so sure.

Housing in Singapore should have zero inflation. It is a very controlled asset. Also demand and supply is everything. I want to know how much the population has increased since 2013? From the MoM stats, foreigners population has been very stable and flat in Singapore over the past decade, yet several HDBs and condos have been built and MOP have been completed. So there is no way to justify the increase over the COVID period. I think prices will go back right to where they were in the next couple of years. As several more condos and HDBs are going to be completed over next few years and there is no appetite to increase foreigners inflow into Singapore.

Dang something shocking happened yesterday, the owner came back to me and has
offered 2700$ for renewing my rental for 2 years.. and I am taking it
you was right bro, the rental market is cooling down.
Is it because lot of expats are leaving

[Wd40]

One thing to keep in mind, over the last 10 years, rents (at least indices) are up about 3% per year, hardly a glaring amount (people forget there was a supply glut in 2013-2018). That may be peak-to-peak, but even going back to 2007 the CAGR is a little less than 4%.

Basically, due to the lead times and inability to reduce supply, this is a market that is never in balance (one side always has the upper hand). After 2008 and 2013, rents fall 20% - 25%, although the rate of decline was quite different in the two cases. Given the 50%+ increase, that may sound like an easy number to see again, but I'm not so sure.

Housing in Singapore should have zero inflation. It is a very controlled asset. Also demand and supply is everything. I want to know how much the population has increased since 2013? From the MoM stats, foreigners population has been very stable and flat in Singapore over the past decade, yet several HDBs and condos have been built and MOP have been completed. So there is no way to justify the increase over the COVID period. I think prices will go back right to where they were in the next couple of years. As several more condos and HDBs are going to be completed over next few years and there is no appetite to increase foreigners inflow into Singapore.

Dang something shocking happened yesterday, the owner came back to me and has
offered 2700$ for renewing my rental for 2 years.. and I am taking it
you was right bro, the rental market is cooling down.
Is it because lot of expats are leaving

Wow! So instead of increasing your rent by $900, he cut your rent by $300? That's beyond what even what I imagined, lol. Congratulations! Rent is the biggest expense and if you want to save money in Singapore, you have to get the rental cost under control.