Rents are peaking!

[Pal]

Yes, for resale it is possible if new owner allows some extension. But this only works if you do not need the sale proceeds for the deposit of the new home 5% and the buyer stamp duty. The timeline is stressful and may not work for alot of owners.

New homes yet to obtain TOP is not possible, hence will need to rent for the interim period.

ABSD is making it really cumbersome for genuine owners to upgrade or even downgrade. Many home owners I know have to sell first then buy else will need to pay for the ABSD upfront and claim for remission later. This in turn is causing owners to sell first, rent for some time then buy.

This artificial rental demand is also causing rental market inflation and when the buy / sell slows due the higher interest rates, it will affect the rental market too.

I believe once the OTP you issued to a buyer is exercised, you (the seller) can purchase another property without including the pending sale in your property count. You will need to find/execute on another unit quickly, and realistically you will need a sale and extension (lease from new owner) or temporary housing (especially if reno work is required).

So for a resale purchase, I think there are some workarounds. For the new developments, particularly the new launches with TOP further out into the future, this won't be possible.

[NYY1]

Yes, for resale it is possible if new owner allows some extension. But this only works if you do not need the sale proceeds for the deposit of the new home 5% and the buyer stamp duty. The timeline is stressful and may not work for alot of owners.

New homes yet to obtain TOP is not possible, hence will need to rent for the interim period.

The deposit (5%) and BSD are a part of any transaction; ABSD could be 0% but if you need the equity in your current place to make an offer on another place, then you will need to sell before buying again.

I get your point; those with joint ownership face more constraints and hurdles these days. I guess IRAS could also make the ABSD payable upon failure to dispose of the existing unit, although this isn't without its problems either (HDB does allow seniors to dispose of private property within 6 months after buying a resale flat).

[Wd40]

Lucky you to have the privilege to be exempted for ABSD for the first property. For those who is unaware, Nationals and Permanent Residents of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and the United States of America are treated as Singapore Citizen when they purchase a property in Singapore.

Do you think the 60% ABSD for foreigners are too harsh? Another reason why rental remains high due to foreigners not buying like before.

I think Too Harsh is too soft a phrase for 60% ABSD

When they raised the ABSD for foreigners to 10% that was harsh already.

When they raised it to 30% it was like, who cares, nobody is going to buy anyway.

When they raised it to 60% is it is like might as well raise it to 1000%, I mean it is like saying we would rather outrightly ban it, but that doesn't help the optics, so we are making it ridiculously expensive so that it is impossible for you to buy it.

It is a bit like if your teenager asks you to buy a car for their birthday and you don't want to buy it, you give them an impossible challenge like "You need to get admission in Harvard" then I will buy you a car. What do you think the teenager will reply back to you?

[Pal]

Haha very true

What I see from this ridiculous 60% is the gov intention to push foreigners to apply for PR and citizenship.

[malcontent]

Do you think the 60% ABSD for foreigners are too harsh? Another reason why rental remains high due to foreigners not buying like before.

Call me cynical, but when 60% ABSD was first announced, my first thought was ML, whether that would be too steep a price to clean their green.

[abbby]

Lucky you to have the privilege to be exempted for ABSD for the first property. For those who is unaware, Nationals and Permanent Residents of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and the United States of America are treated as Singapore Citizen when they purchase a property in Singapore.

Do you think the 60% ABSD for foreigners are too harsh? Another reason why rental remains high due to foreigners not buying like before.

I think Too Harsh is too soft a phrase for 60% ABSD

When they raised the ABSD for foreigners to 10% that was harsh already.

When they raised it to 30% it was like, who cares, nobody is going to buy anyway.

When they raised it to 60% is it is like might as well raise it to 1000%, I mean it is like saying we would rather outrightly ban it, but that doesn't help the optics, so we are making it ridiculously expensive so that it is impossible for you to buy it.

It is a bit like if your teenager asks you to buy a car for their birthday and you don't want to buy it, you give them an impossible challenge like "You need to get admission in Harvard" then I will buy you a car. What do you think the teenager will reply back to you?

I would think you're absolutely right!

[Wd40]

There you go, I predicted this first before anyone else, in real time. The peak was reached right when I was trying to renew my rental. Within 2 months I could see the property market turn.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/proper ... rg-analyst

[jjdoe]

Updated...

30/9/2023- 32,100
7/10/2023 - 33,200
14/10/2023 - 33,900
21/10/2023- 34,700
28/10/2023- 35,100

Still going up. The last time there werre 35,000 listings was early 2019...

November surge!

4/11/2023 - 35,900 800
11/11/2023 - 37,000
18/11/2023 - 37,600
25/11/2023- 38,100
2/12/2023 - 38,300

[the observer]

“Since the second half of 2023, we have noticed many expats returning home and Singaporeans transitioning to their Build-To-Order flats. These factors have contributed to the high supply of condos available for rent.”

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/p ... eted-units

[Wd40]

The new compass framework for EP renewals will take affect from September 2024. So lots of expats are going to be forced to move out of Singapore.

Rents are going to fall, it is a great time to be a tenant, if you have somehow survived the job market and secured your work pass.

[Pal]

This year will have less new condo TOP. So I hope the market will not have any over supply. The projected fall in loan interest may help Landlord cushion any fall in rent.

[the observer]

The new compass framework for EP renewals will take affect from September 2024. So lots of expats are going to be forced to move out of Singapore.

Rents are going to fall, it is a great time to be a tenant, if you have somehow survived the job market and secured your work pass.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -from-2025

[malcontent]

The new compass framework for EP renewals will take affect from September 2024. So lots of expats are going to be forced to move out of Singapore.

Rents are going to fall, it is a great time to be a tenant, if you have somehow survived the job market and secured your work pass.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -from-2025

Doesn’t raising the bar shift where the top 1/3 come in at? In other words, continuously raising the bar will continuously raise the bar?

I’m sure someone (who is smarter than me in stats) can answer that.

[NYY1]

The new compass framework for EP renewals will take affect from September 2024. So lots of expats are going to be forced to move out of Singapore.

Rents are going to fall, it is a great time to be a tenant, if you have somehow survived the job market and secured your work pass.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -from-2025

Doesn’t raising the bar shift where the top 1/3 come in at? In other words, continuously raising the bar will continuously raise the bar?

I’m sure someone (who is smarter than me in stats) can answer that.

Sorry, I'm not sure I entirely follow what you are asking. The top 1/3 is local (sc/pr) salaries only. Raising the EP (non-local) requirements doesn't impact where the top 1/3 is directly. If the local salaries are increasing over time, the EP requirement should also drift up over time as well.

However, there may be some feedback loop between these two, both from the substitutability angle and from general pressures.

[malcontent]

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -from-2025

Doesn’t raising the bar shift where the top 1/3 come in at? In other words, continuously raising the bar will continuously raise the bar?

I’m sure someone (who is smarter than me in stats) can answer that.

Sorry, I'm not sure I entirely follow what you are asking. The top 1/3 is local (sc/pr) salaries only. Raising the EP (non-local) requirements doesn't impact where the top 1/3 is directly. If the local salaries are increasing over time, the EP requirement should also drift up over time as well.

However, there may be some feedback loop between these two, both from the substitutability angle and from general pressures.

You got my point, and it sounds like the answer is “not directly” - which I guess is kind of like how the median is not affected by the mean when data is being skewed.