What do you find more convenient here?

[malcontent]

All of the charts that I’ve seen don’t have a decade’s worth of “up years” to arrive at that conclusion.

Maybe I need to check out the more conservative websites? Liberals apparently think crime is still going down, even in recent years.

361 was the low in 2014. Hasn't gone lower since then. Not up every year (y/y) but it has increased since then? Certainly, it is no longer a downward trend as you have claimed (that is the statement that is wrong). BTW, this chart is total violent crime, NOT homicide or gun related incidents, which is what you replied to and specifically what I mentioned has moved up more substantially in recent years.

Here are two other stats I posted previously. Yeah, they are still on a downward trend, LOL.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/U ... icide-rate
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... n-the-u-s/

I fully agree with you that the year-over-year trend has reversed since 2014.

However, to conclude that the multi-decade downtrend has reversed, we need to compare decade-over-decade. The most recent 10 year period for which there is complete data is 2012-2021, so we have to compare that with the 2002-2011 period. From the chart we can see there are more data points with higher values in the 2002-2011 range vs 2012-2021. This is why I would not conclude that the multi-decade trend has reversed… yet.

[malcontent]

Not sure if I believe this theory, but maybe lead contributed to the higher crime rates…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%8 ... hypothesis

[NYY1]

All of the charts that I’ve seen don’t have a decade’s worth of “up years” to arrive at that conclusion.

Maybe I need to check out the more conservative websites? Liberals apparently think crime is still going down, even in recent years.

361 was the low in 2014. Hasn't gone lower since then. Not up every year (y/y) but it has increased since then? Certainly, it is no longer a downward trend as you have claimed (that is the statement that is wrong). BTW, this chart is total violent crime, NOT homicide or gun related incidents, which is what you replied to and specifically what I mentioned has moved up more substantially in recent years.

Here are two other stats I posted previously. Yeah, they are still on a downward trend, LOL.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/U ... icide-rate
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... n-the-u-s/

I fully agree with you that the year-over-year trend has reversed since 2014.

However, to conclude that the multi-decade downtrend has reversed, we need to compare decade-over-decade. The most recent 10 year period for which there is complete data is 2012-2021, so we have to compare that with the 2002-2011 period. From the chart we can see there are more data points with higher values in the 2002-2011 range vs 2012-2021. This is why I would not conclude that the multi-decade trend has reversed… yet.

I think what you have described is a rolling average decade over previous average decade calculation, not a multi-decade downtrend. Also, I am open to the argument that the increase from 2015 onwards is miniscule when compared to the base or drop that occurred from the early-90s (and people still woke up, went to work/school, and returned home safely then). But is not currently dropping or trending down.

Either way, I'm not sure why you want to use total violent crime to answer a question about homicide or gun related homicide.

[x9200]

Most ordinary, everyday people are not going to be venturing into the neighborhoods where the vast majority of violent crime is taking place. And it is usually obvious to anyone with eyes to see — run down buildings, graffiti, thugs hanging out on the street corners. In the rare case if you are driving and get lost there — my advice is to be cool, pretend you belong but move right along.

You have your baseline naturally adjusted to it I think so it appears safe. This is sort of like Malaysia seen by Singaporeans as a dangerous country while for me Malaysia is a typical, and rather safe place.

But with the States it seems different. Perhaps grossly exaggerated by media but from outside it all looks like guns induced national paranoia. It's not only about some thugs with guns and rough neighbourhoods. The police is shooting at everybody under slightest suspicion they may be armed, neighbors are shooting at neighbors who by mistake entered their property (e.g. recent case of one black teenager and some young guys who arrived in a car at some wrong driveway), a cheerleader got shot also last week after entering by mistake someone else car. Not to mention what the Sates are already infamous for, school/bar mass shootings. I just don't get how the freedom to own and carry guns can be more important than somebody's right to live.

Just from this map:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... by-country
5-10x higher homicide and violent crimes rate comparing to most EU countries.

[malcontent]

I think what you have described is a rolling average decade over previous average decade calculation, not a multi-decade downtrend. Also, I am open to the argument that the increase from 2015 onwards is miniscule when compared to the base or drop that occurred from the early-90s (and people still woke up, went to work/school, and returned home safely then). But is not currently dropping or trending down.

Either way, I'm not sure why you want to use total violent crime to answer a question about homicide or gun related homicide.

I am not a statistician, so in my simple mind, multi-decade means multiples of 10 year periods of data. For example, if you were to overlay a 10 year moving average on the graph, it would still show a downward trajectory.

Nevertheless, we agree on what the data is telling us, just not how I describe it.

I did notice that gun violence is only a tiny fraction of total violent crime, but I think what people really want to know about is personal safety in general - and violent crime seems to cover that. Is there a better measure?

[malcontent]

Most ordinary, everyday people are not going to be venturing into the neighborhoods where the vast majority of violent crime is taking place. And it is usually obvious to anyone with eyes to see — run down buildings, graffiti, thugs hanging out on the street corners. In the rare case if you are driving and get lost there — my advice is to be cool, pretend you belong but move right along.

You have your baseline naturally adjusted to it I think so it appears safe. This is sort of like Malaysia seen by Singaporeans as a dangerous country while for me Malaysia is a typical, and rather safe place.

But with the States it seems different. Perhaps grossly exaggerated by media but from outside it all looks like guns induced national paranoia. It's not only about some thugs with guns and rough neighbourhoods. The police is shooting at everybody under slightest suspicion they may be armed, neighbors are shooting at neighbors who by mistake entered their property (e.g. recent case of one black teenager and some young guys who arrived in a car at some wrong driveway), a cheerleader got shot also last week after entering by mistake someone else car. Not to mention what the Sates are already infamous for, school/bar mass shootings. I just don't get how the freedom to own and carry guns can be more important than somebody's right to live.

Just from this map:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... by-country
5-10x higher homicide and violent crimes rate comparing to most EU countries.

Yes and that was true all the while I grew up there.

I have had my fair share of run ins with the police, including bad ones where I got treated unfairly. Maybe if I wasn’t white I would assume that was the reason. But in every encounter with the police I was polite, cooperated and did not make any sudden (or dumb) moves — that is what I see happening in most cases that end badly, including George Floyd. They never show the footage of him resisting arrest, not cooperating and disregarding police instructions - - all of which happened… not that it justifies what the police did, but I guarantee he’d be alive today if he acted the way I would have in that situation.

Although I haven’t lived in the US for 27 years, I still have family and friends there who I’m in daily contact with — I know everything they have experienced while I was there and while I was gone… I really struggle to name one incident where they were a victim of crime… in their entire lives! I believe that is the reality for the vast majority who live there.

[sundaymorningstaple]

As a counterpoint, I contributed to the carnage one December night in 1968 a couple of months after I was released from active duty and was the night manager of a Holiday Inn Motel in my home town and an armed attempt to hold me up at 3:30 am didn't quite go as planned. But that is the only time I've ever pointed and fired a gun at another human being as I was always taught from my first shotgun (which is now owned by my niece's son.) Dad gave to me when I was 14 and and went out that winter and bagged my first of many deer (it was an 8 pt buck). And no, I never pointed a gun at anybody during the 18 mos in the NAM (chopper pilot flying Loach so not a gunship).

Oh and my sister and her late husband were both Florida State Board of Corrections Parole Officers and had and still have in her case, concealed carry permits. And she still packs at 74 and still has a good eye. But she has also never had to fire it (other than on the range to stay qualified or for killing vermin.

[x9200]

Most individuals are responsible ones so they could own and carry guns but I see it similar to have the house locked. Majority would not rob your house, only some minority would but the house still needs to be locked. For the guns someone's live/health is at stake and clearly there is no good way to (pre)determine who is the responsible individual in that respect.
As a teenager I used to shoot small caliber sport riffle at shooting range and I liked it. I would probably like it even now but I still think all the dangers to have guns easily accessible in a typical society outweigh any possible benefits.

[x9200]

I have had my fair share of run ins with the police, including bad ones where I got treated unfairly. Maybe if I wasn’t white I would assume that was the reason. But in every encounter with the police I was polite, cooperated and did not make any sudden (or dumb) moves — that is what I see happening in most cases that end badly, including George Floyd. They never show the footage of him resisting arrest, not cooperating and disregarding police instructions - - all of which happened… not that it justifies what the police did, but I guarantee he’d be alive today if he acted the way I would have in that situation.

What if somebody does not understand/comprehend the instructions? There was a case a few years ago, I believe we even discussed it on this board, they shot down an elderly Indian guy who didn't follow the instructions. He simply didn't understand English.

I don't even blame police in general. That's the part of this paranoia puzzle. Everybody may have a gun so they have to assume this is the case each time. Of course there should be no abuse but for the Floyd's case I have very mixed feelings.

[malcontent]

I have had my fair share of run ins with the police, including bad ones where I got treated unfairly. Maybe if I wasn’t white I would assume that was the reason. But in every encounter with the police I was polite, cooperated and did not make any sudden (or dumb) moves — that is what I see happening in most cases that end badly, including George Floyd. They never show the footage of him resisting arrest, not cooperating and disregarding police instructions - - all of which happened… not that it justifies what the police did, but I guarantee he’d be alive today if he acted the way I would have in that situation.

What if somebody does not understand/comprehend the instructions? There was a case a few years ago, I believe we even discussed it on this board, they shot down an elderly Indian guy who didn't follow the instructions. He simply didn't understand English.

I don't even blame police in general. That's the part of this paranoia puzzle. Everybody may have a gun so they have to assume this is the case each time. Of course there should be no abuse but for the Floyd's case I have very mixed feelings.

There was another case many years ago where a Japanese guy didn’t know the word “freeze” and got shot by the police.

I don’t know more about the story than that - but if I were in a foreign country and the police were aiming a gun at me, I don’t think I would move no matter what they said or in what language. But I remember something my father told me which I have found to be very true… common sense is not very common.

[x9200]

I have had my fair share of run ins with the police, including bad ones where I got treated unfairly. Maybe if I wasn’t white I would assume that was the reason. But in every encounter with the police I was polite, cooperated and did not make any sudden (or dumb) moves — that is what I see happening in most cases that end badly, including George Floyd. They never show the footage of him resisting arrest, not cooperating and disregarding police instructions - - all of which happened… not that it justifies what the police did, but I guarantee he’d be alive today if he acted the way I would have in that situation.

What if somebody does not understand/comprehend the instructions? There was a case a few years ago, I believe we even discussed it on this board, they shot down an elderly Indian guy who didn't follow the instructions. He simply didn't understand English.

I don't even blame police in general. That's the part of this paranoia puzzle. Everybody may have a gun so they have to assume this is the case each time. Of course there should be no abuse but for the Floyd's case I have very mixed feelings.

There was another case many years ago where a Japanese guy didn’t know the word “freeze” and got shot by the police.

I don’t know more about the story than that - but if I were in a foreign country and the police were aiming a gun at me, I don’t think I would move no matter what they said or in what language. But I remember something my father told me which I have found to be very true… common sense is not very common.

That may be, but I still think something is very wrong with the system if the police kills an innocent person under such circumstances. And what about if this is some elderly guy with AD or other type of dementia or somebody with ASD? Knowing specific way to talk with the police is a common sense in every country but not having such skill should not be the reason alone to get one killed.

[NYY1]

...
I did notice that gun violence is only a tiny fraction of total violent crime, but I think what people really want to know about is personal safety in general - and violent crime seems to cover that. Is there a better measure?

Yes, gun homicide (I'm not sure on broader gun violence) is a very small portion of total violent crime, but it is obviously one of the worst outcomes (although the on-going physical and mental impact of some others can be pretty bad as well). In addition to personal safety, which is generally represented by total violent crime and would show a less dramatic change in recent times, I think people are interested in these "random" events (some comments made above about this). As far as I know, there is no real way to track this.

I think it is also whether incidents are increasingly occurring in areas that previously seemed "safe." The overall risk may still be low but it is the relative change that makes people uncomfortable (rightly or wrongly). The following report talks a bit about neighborhoods vs. downtown areas vs. the public's perception. I'm not always in love with this source, but assuming it's half right it would reflect more of what you are saying. For example, a downtown central event involving a "professional" will most likely make the national news while the on-going troubles in some areas continue without coverage.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/the- ... d-reality/

[Lisafuller]

What I find myself most worried about are mass shootings. I'm not too worried about a gun-related homicide, I'm very careful not to make enemies and doubt I would ever be in a situation where there would be a specific threat to my life. Mass shootings, on the other hand tend to be conducted randomly, without rhyme or reason. This unpredictability is what makes them so scary, and the fact that they're so rampant doesn't help. This year alone, there have been more mass shootings than there have been days of the year. That says something.

The stat that you really want isn't available. I.e. unaffiliated gun violence and/or mass shootings. The mass shooting statistic itself includes known victims (settling a dispute, thugs blasting up each other, etc) and is only based on number of people. I think things like Uvalde, TX or Highland Park, IL (Chicago suburb) are the ones you are most worried about. There are others that are harder to classify like the Miami Beach, FL or Alabama shootings (bystanders to the initial scuffle but victims nonetheless).

Others will say these are wrong place-wrong time, which is partly true. Your plane could crash, lift cables snap, breaks on a bus go out and you get squashed like a bug crossing the road, etc (I could go on but I assume everyone gets the point).

I feel like there has been an increase in "random" events and increasingly in reasonably affluent or central areas over the years, but I cannot prove this and it could be a misconception due to any combination of media coverage, what I care about, various biases, etc.

The aggregate stats are probably a decent proxy for everything that's going on (at least relative rate of change), keeping in mind that most people who aren't looking for trouble or exercising discretion are unlikely to run into problems.

Unfortunate that the statistic is unavailable, however, I do agree with much of what you said. What I worry about is the rise in random shootings, purely because somebody with a gun wants to see what it feels like to kill.

[Lisafuller]

I hadn't seen any of these. I don't think any of them would qualify as a mass shooting.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/unit ... -wrong-car

I believe what I read was that there have been more mass shootings this year than days, and that the statistic in question doesn't account for all of the other shootings of one or two people.

[Lisafuller]

If you could be a fly on the wall in the situations that precipitate violence in the US, you’d start to get an idea why the vast majority of these incidents occur.

Those who are humble, low-profile and keep their nose clean are extremely unlikely to face such a thing - yes, there are always exceptions — and you still have to be aware of your surroundings, but generally speaking, that is the reality on the ground.

Just look at how some people act when they get pulled over by the police. If you are smart, you will do exactly as instructed, be as humble as possible… you might even avoid a ticket.

This is partially true, but I do think it's worrying that many of those who were involved in shootings did exactly what you said. Kept low profiles, were generally nice to everybody, abd never caused any trouble.