Mass exodus

[sundaymorningstaple]

Gotta change the subject topic to Mass Influx, (of EPs)…

After yesterdays National Day speech.

Common sense and best guess is, welcoming with open arms businesses and teams relocating from HK and maybe Taiwan. For this year.

I suppose jobs will be aplenty, inflation will continue marching higher ie coe and rentals.

Probably a bad idea to be a retiree at this juncture.

Well, Having been here 40 years now, I've been through a lot of growing pains and went through my share of watching the ebb & flow of human flotsam & jetsam that has happened periodically. With regard to an influx from HK & Taiwan, I don't think we will see that much effect here. Maybe Mal remembers the 1997 HK handover when Singapore offered 20K PRs to any Honkie who wanted to come rather than stay in HK. It was an abysmal failure. Less than half of the offered PRs were taken up. When queried as to why so many didn't, invariably the answer was that either too close to China or Western countries offered much better odds of "freedom" comparatively speaking. The government here was looking for the exact same people that was mentioned above. Very few of them took it. I see the same thing happening again. Why move to a place that is astronomically high in costs for basic necessities when they are much better off moving 'with their money' to western countries where the money will go much, much farther with much less chance of them living on a blade of grass between two unhappy elephants.

[sundaymorningstaple]

Probably a bad idea to be a retiree at this juncture.

Tell me about it!

[sundaymorningstaple]

No worries NYY1, I think we are both saying the same thing, just semantics… it depends on the time period being considered and how “long-term” is defined for trending purposes.

Help me understand why the incarceration rate matters. If incarceration rates increased during the past several decades, it stands to reason that there should be less crime with fewer criminals on the street (one would hope that means law enforcement is working). Alternatively, if the incarceration rates have dropped, it means fewer criminals are being spawned by society, that seems even more preferable, clearly.

Gotcha, I think we both understand...

My thought on the incarcerations is as follows, although I guess this is open to interpretation and happy to hear other thoughts.
-The crime index roughly got cut in half from the early-90s to the low (2014)
-In 1980, incarcerations per 100,000 was at 310. It peaked at about 1,000 in 2008.
-I don't have the exact data but roughly eyeballing it perhaps the incarceration rate was ~500 in the early-90s. I.e. it doubled over the next 15 years and jail time both got certain people off the streets and served as a deterrent to others.
-I guess this is where we differ. I don't see the drop in incarcerations as evidence that fewer criminals are being spawned by society. There is a bit of a lag but as incarcerations started dropping, crime started increasing (the exact opposite of what happened above)

So is it there's less crime (stats don't say so last 5+ years) or the system (police, judicial) is becoming less of a deterrent and more people are unfortunately undertaking unproductive behavior?

The incarceration rate is undoubtedly a function of many things; actual crimes, catching the people (law enforcement bandwidth and effectiveness), sentencing, and serving terms/being released. Maybe this is the "news" but do you think the social/political environment is one that is tough on crime or one that wants to give everyone a second, third, fourth, and fifth chance? There are also movements to cut police budgets or in some parts of society a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not so sure those are good things.

So continue to watch. I don't think anyone wants to see things deteriorate but I read the situation differently from you and this also impacts the outlook (unless something else changes).

I wonder how much the data points are being impacted by the mass influx across our southern border. It's a known that drugs and economic refugees are poring across the border. When they run out of money and cannot get legal work (or aren't looking for it in the case of drugs) they are going to spike crime probably in tandem with the number coming across illegally.

[malcontent]

Well, Having been here 40 years now, I've been through a lot of growing pains and went through my share of watching the ebb & flow of human flotsam & jetsam that has happened periodically. With regard to an influx from HK & Taiwan, I don't think we will see that much effect here. Maybe Mal remembers the 1997 HK handover when Singapore offered 20K PRs to any Honkie who wanted to come rather than stay in HK. It was an abysmal failure. Less than half of the offered PRs were taken up. When queried as to why so many didn't, invariably the answer was that either too close to China or Western countries offered much better odds of "freedom" comparatively speaking. The government here was looking for the exact same people that was mentioned above. Very few of them took it. I see the same thing happening again. Why move to a place that is astronomically high in costs for basic necessities when they are much better off moving 'with their money' to western countries where the money will go much, much farther with much less chance of them living on a blade of grass between two unhappy elephants.

Yes, I not only remember but experienced it first hand. The two ladies who interviewed and hired me for my first job here in Jan 1997 were both HK transplants, as were my first two supervisors. Both of the ladies went back to HK eventually, my first boss moved to the UK for his Masters and is now based in Australia. My second boss retired about 15 years ago and has remained in Singapore. He still hangs out with a group of fellow ex-HK retirees from my office who stayed. Roughly I’d say about 1/3 ended up staying, 1/3 went back to HK and 1/3 went on to greener pastures. Today they have all but evaporated from our office, only a tiny fraction remain. Gone are the days of hearing zou san every morning, and shouts of diu by the afternoon!

[malcontent]

No worries NYY1, I think we are both saying the same thing, just semantics… it depends on the time period being considered and how “long-term” is defined for trending purposes.

Help me understand why the incarceration rate matters. If incarceration rates increased during the past several decades, it stands to reason that there should be less crime with fewer criminals on the street (one would hope that means law enforcement is working). Alternatively, if the incarceration rates have dropped, it means fewer criminals are being spawned by society, that seems even more preferable, clearly.

Gotcha, I think we both understand...

My thought on the incarcerations is as follows, although I guess this is open to interpretation and happy to hear other thoughts.
-The crime index roughly got cut in half from the early-90s to the low (2014)
-In 1980, incarcerations per 100,000 was at 310. It peaked at about 1,000 in 2008.
-I don't have the exact data but roughly eyeballing it perhaps the incarceration rate was ~500 in the early-90s. I.e. it doubled over the next 15 years and jail time both got certain people off the streets and served as a deterrent to others.
-I guess this is where we differ. I don't see the drop in incarcerations as evidence that fewer criminals are being spawned by society. There is a bit of a lag but as incarcerations started dropping, crime started increasing (the exact opposite of what happened above)

So is it there's less crime (stats don't say so last 5+ years) or the system (police, judicial) is becoming less of a deterrent and more people are unfortunately undertaking unproductive behavior?

The incarceration rate is undoubtedly a function of many things; actual crimes, catching the people (law enforcement bandwidth and effectiveness), sentencing, and serving terms/being released. Maybe this is the "news" but do you think the social/political environment is one that is tough on crime or one that wants to give everyone a second, third, fourth, and fifth chance? There are also movements to cut police budgets or in some parts of society a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not so sure those are good things.

So continue to watch. I don't think anyone wants to see things deteriorate but I read the situation differently from you and this also impacts the outlook (unless something else changes).

I think SMS might be onto something, the unemployment rate might be the best predictor of crime rates. I haven’t looked at the data, but in my youth I had more than a few “friends of friends” who were genuine criminals to varying degrees, several went missing for long stretches because they were doing hard time. I always felt like a sheep among wolves. But such is life in a small hick town where I grew up!

If they would have had better job opportunities, I can believe they might not have been so compelled to do the crime… although for some of them, I have to believe it was genetic. If you could meet them, you’d know what I mean - they were genuinely out of their mind and had little in the way of common sense, and nothing in the way of morality.

[NYY1]

I think SMS might be onto something, the unemployment rate might be the best predictor of crime rates. I haven’t looked at the data, but in my youth I had more than a few “friends of friends” who were genuine criminals to varying degrees, several went missing for long stretches because they were doing hard time. I always felt like a sheep among wolves. But such is life in a small hick town where I grew up!

If they would have had better job opportunities, I can believe they might not have been so compelled to do the crime… although for some of them, I have to believe it was genetic. If you could meet them, you’d know what I mean - they were genuinely out of their mind and had little in the way of common sense, and nothing in the way of morality.

There's no doubt crime is a function of opportunity cost; both what you have to lose in terms of positives and what is the penalty if you get caught. In general, more opportunity should lower crime. The unemployment rate is cyclical but the crime index didn't really change or actually kept going down after the early-2000s and 2008 recessions. Instead, there was a longer-term trend that existed from the 90s until the mid part of the last decade. Why? To me, this suggests there was a larger factor at play that overrode the short-term fluctuations one would expect to see with (cyclically) changing economic environments.

I don't doubt that the issues mentioned are making things worse. I guess I am unconvinced that is the only/main factor (although I could be wrong).

Said another way, do you think they can lower the incarcerations per 100,000 back to 300-500 and the crime index will stay at around 400 (by some measures, the incarceration rate was 6xx in 2021)? If so, then society would in fact be producing fewer criminals. I.e. the large spike in incarcerations cleaned up the mess and everyone learnt their lesson (and now behaves).

I guess TBD...

[NYY1]

This article also talks about the differences within a city over time (if one can even call all of these different areas the same city). Some areas are back to the mid-90s levels while other areas have seen a continued downtrend. Largely related to opportunity as mentioned above, and how one can try to avoid things / some places probably not much different from here (Singapore).

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2022 ... -lightfoot

[malcontent]

For anyone who might be considering a move to the US, there are two good sources of data that I recommend consulting. One is www.city-data.com which gives you a lot of useful demographic information and crime stats. Then, for drilling down to the specific part of town, the Trulia real estate app can overlay crime data (color coded by frequency) right on the map, showing you exactly which neighborhoods to avoid. The amount of detail you can get is pretty amazing.

[malcontent]

This article also talks about the differences within a city over time (if one can even call all of these different areas the same city). Some areas are back to the mid-90s levels while other areas have seen a continued downtrend. Largely related to opportunity as mentioned above, and how one can try to avoid things / some places probably not much different from here (Singapore).

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2022 ... -lightfoot

Mayor Lightfoot is the problem in Chicago. In general, democrats have a poor record, and cities they run are usually crime ridden and badly run. Lightfoot is a prime example of that. She is almost completely out of touch, among other things. I can’t believe she remains the mayor… what a disgrace.

[smoulder]

From the sounds of it, Singapore isn't exactly going to make it easy and hand you that additional option. And this is precisely one of the reasons why Indian PR applications are under the scanner at the ICA. (I assume from the name, that you are an Indian)

Of course no pr application unless coming from a Malaysian or indonesian is going be an easy approval and will be under the scanner
Indians obviously have borne the brunt of it, That being said plenty of Indians i know already received pr after applying 5/6 times.

For me its just a shot at the PR lottery pot if i am lucky so be it, otherwise i do have other plans lined up.

It is not a lottery. They know exactly whom to give and whom not to give. The people who got it after applying 5/6 times didn't get it just by chance. They must have shown some commitment and it cannot be faked.

So if I were you, I would take the other options before they dry up, if you are really serious about them. Options don't remain open forever.

Exactly. It's far from a lottery. It only seems that way from the outside or if you haven't observed some of the trends which are fairly well documented in these forums.

The most obvious trend is that they seem to have a preference for non sham marriages with locals.

[Lisafuller]

If it’s a university where anyone can walk in, no one bats an eyelid. For polys, maybe it’s stricter. Before covid, there were always random tour groups of young students (10 years old) touring university campuses.

Hospitals shops have no such “discounts” for being in a hospital. I know because I’m located beside both a hospital and an institution. Only hospital staff get discounts in some hospitals stores after showing their staff card.

Ah, I think that’s what I had in mind. And the times I’ve been to KKH for check ups I’ve always noticed different prices on the menu.

[Lisafuller]

If it’s a university where anyone can walk in, no one bats an eyelid.

That has been my experience. I have visited NTU canteens for lunch literally hundreds of times over the past few decades. Just imagine you are a visiting lecturer… no problem!

A lot of times you just need confidence. If you act like you belong there, people will believe that you do.

[Lisafuller]

During the pandemic though, the uni I worked at was super strict about visitors and canteens could not sell food to visitors. The hospital on the other hand, had no such policy so I always told my vendors to grab their food from the hospital instead of school.

Now the restrictions have been lifted and anyone can dine in. Pain in the butt to find a seat during lunch. Gotta compete with the students, uni staff, hospital staff, and outsiders for a space to eat. I do have my own container for takeaway but I prefer to get some sunshine & fresh air instead of being stuck in the air-conditioned office all the time.

I’m quite the opposite, it’s been so hot and rainy recently, which you would think isn’t even possible but yet somehow it is. Come lunchtime I like to order on Grab with colleagues, we have no problem hitting all the minimum spends for free delivery and further discounts so it’s not as expensive as you might think.

[Lisafuller]

Havent posted in a while, but just wanted to get my thoughts out on this topic
There is an exodus of the traditional expat population from the west, only to he replaced by the hongkong expats and bankers and the mainland chinese

These two in particular are pushing up property prices and COE rates too i think, HK bankers will be ready to pay whatever $$ for a car

2022 assessment of Singapore

Pros:
Strong SGD : only real reason for me to work here
Good public transport infra
Good internet and mobile connectivity

Cons:
Exorbitant rentals
Bad/disgusting food - the standards have dropped big time, i hardly eat out anymore and cook at home
No entertainment- no discos,no vibrant nightlife that southeast asia is known for
Expensive spas massages and basically any wellness services due to high cost of employing workers
Women - gold diggers,fake and shallow
Poor retail - malls are all cookie cutter, You see one ,you’ve seen them all
Air travel hub: not as attractive as before, Air tickets are getting more and more expensive



Personally for me, the last 2 years were depressing, Apart from the fact that i can earn more here, i don’t see a good enough reason to stay on here, canada australia Uk all seem much more attractive
Plus after staying 10 years+ in a country with PR i feel its a wasted investment in this country
Had i spent those years in any other country,PR or citizenship is guaranteed.

This is a pretty negative evaluation yet I can’t help but agree. One thing that really sticks out after a while is the lack of nightlife or other entertainment. Doesn’t seem like much but you really feel it when the weekend rolls around and you have nowhere to go.

[Lisafuller]

I hear you Raj, my recent trips to the US really drove many of those points home. Visiting my friends there… despite earning less and having a higher tax rate, they have so much more than me, both materially and lifestyle-wise. Covid really amplified this reality. The way I described it to my friends back there, it’s like living in a box. And although I’ve explored and discovered more than ever on this island during the pandemic, there is only so much that can be discovered (and rediscovered) on this red dot.

It has started to make me cringe every time I hear people give safety as the reason they want to stay here. I just went to the US twice without incident, and it shouldn’t be a surprise - I’ve never encountered any incidents, even back when I lived there. Crime rates in the US have actually been on a long-term downtrend since the 80’s, something you’d never know from the media. The recreational opportunities there are almost limitless. Life is short, I highly recommend living it while you can.

Exactly! If there’s anything this pandemic has taught me it’s that you really only live once, so no point avoiding risk to the extent that you live a safe and unadventurous life. A lot of people tend to think the US is a hotbed of crime, but that really isn’t the case, especially when you consider the number of incidents in relation to the overall population.