NYY1 wrote: ↑Mon, 22 Aug 2022 2:44 pm
Gotcha, I think we both understand...
My thought on the incarcerations is as follows, although I guess this is open to interpretation and happy to hear other thoughts.
-The crime index roughly got cut in half from the early-90s to the low (2014)
-In 1980, incarcerations per 100,000 was at 310. It peaked at about 1,000 in 2008.
-I don't have the exact data but roughly eyeballing it perhaps the incarceration rate was ~500 in the early-90s. I.e. it doubled over the next 15 years and jail time both got certain people off the streets and
served as a deterrent to others.
-I guess this is where we differ. I don't see the drop in incarcerations as evidence that fewer criminals are being spawned by society. There is a bit of a lag but as incarcerations started dropping, crime started increasing (the exact opposite of what happened above)
So is it there's less crime (stats don't say so last 5+ years) or the system (police, judicial) is becoming less of a deterrent and more people are unfortunately undertaking unproductive behavior?
The incarceration rate is undoubtedly a function of many things; actual crimes, catching the people (law enforcement bandwidth and effectiveness), sentencing, and serving terms/being released. Maybe this is the "news" but do you think the social/political environment is one that is tough on crime or one that wants to give everyone a second, third, fourth, and fifth chance? There are also movements to cut police budgets or in some parts of society a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not so sure those are good things.
So continue to watch. I don't think anyone wants to see things deteriorate but I read the situation differently from you and this also impacts the outlook (unless something else changes).