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Mass exodus

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malcontent
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Re: Mass exodus

Post by malcontent » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 11:43 am

tiktok wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 10:43 am
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
LGBTQ
Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.
She dated a male rapper, but maybe she goes both ways? If the media is to be believed, 21% of Gen Z is LGBTQ.

https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-new ... -rcna16556

Clearly they are excited about growing the numbers, but they might be disappointed as removal of BPA from plastics could result in much lower numbers in the future.
It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows - Epictetus

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 3:04 pm

tiktok wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 10:43 am
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
LGBTQ
Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.
This is what has caused all the stink about Billie....(not that she's confirmed anything but if the shoe fits wear it). Plenty of articles out there.
https://www.newsweek.com/billie-eilish- ... ed-1600330
SOME PEOPLE TRY TO TURN BACK THEIR ODOMETERS. NOT ME. I WANT PEOPLE TO KNOW WHY I LOOK THIS WAY. I'VE TRAVELED A LONG WAY, AND SOME OF THE ROADS WEREN'T PAVED. ~ Will Rogers

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by malcontent » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 4:37 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 3:04 pm
tiktok wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 10:43 am
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
LGBTQ
Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.
This is what has caused all the stink about Billie....(not that she's confirmed anything but if the shoe fits wear it). Plenty of articles out there.
https://www.newsweek.com/billie-eilish- ... ed-1600330
Queerbating… what will they think of next?
It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows - Epictetus

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 4:43 pm

Hey Mal, based on the article you linked, Maybe the younger generation knows something we don't know. At least they have a 10% higher chance of getting laid than the straight types do. :lol: :lol:
SOME PEOPLE TRY TO TURN BACK THEIR ODOMETERS. NOT ME. I WANT PEOPLE TO KNOW WHY I LOOK THIS WAY. I'VE TRAVELED A LONG WAY, AND SOME OF THE ROADS WEREN'T PAVED. ~ Will Rogers

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 7:53 pm

NYY1 wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 8:56 am
malcontent wrote:
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 12:07 pm
No worries NYY1, I think we are both saying the same thing, just semantics… it depends on the time period being considered and how “long-term” is defined for trending purposes.

Help me understand why the incarceration rate matters. If incarceration rates increased during the past several decades, it stands to reason that there should be less crime with fewer criminals on the street (one would hope that means law enforcement is working). Alternatively, if the incarceration rates have dropped, it means fewer criminals are being spawned by society, that seems even more preferable, clearly.
NYY1 wrote:
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 2:44 pm
Gotcha, I think we both understand...

My thought on the incarcerations is as follows, although I guess this is open to interpretation and happy to hear other thoughts.
-The crime index roughly got cut in half from the early-90s to the low (2014)
-In 1980, incarcerations per 100,000 was at 310. It peaked at about 1,000 in 2008.
-I don't have the exact data but roughly eyeballing it perhaps the incarceration rate was ~500 in the early-90s. I.e. it doubled over the next 15 years and jail time both got certain people off the streets and served as a deterrent to others.
-I guess this is where we differ. I don't see the drop in incarcerations as evidence that fewer criminals are being spawned by society. There is a bit of a lag but as incarcerations started dropping, crime started increasing (the exact opposite of what happened above)

So is it there's less crime (stats don't say so last 5+ years) or the system (police, judicial) is becoming less of a deterrent and more people are unfortunately undertaking unproductive behavior?

The incarceration rate is undoubtedly a function of many things; actual crimes, catching the people (law enforcement bandwidth and effectiveness), sentencing, and serving terms/being released. Maybe this is the "news" but do you think the social/political environment is one that is tough on crime or one that wants to give everyone a second, third, fourth, and fifth chance? There are also movements to cut police budgets or in some parts of society a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not so sure those are good things.

So continue to watch. I don't think anyone wants to see things deteriorate but I read the situation differently from you and this also impacts the outlook (unless something else changes).
I was thinking about this some more and perhaps I didn't pickup on what you were trying to say (I would have phrased it a bit differently but that is neither here nor there).

Basically, there is both the stock and flow of incarcerated individuals (unfortunately). If crime dropped from the early-90s to mid-2010s (which it did), all else equal fewer and fewer people should be added to the facilities each year. Eventually, the number in the facilities will start to decline as individuals are released (served sentence). I.e. fewer criminals means fewer incarcerations (and not the other way around).

So I retract my prior reply above (or at least don't stand by it so strongly), as really I don't have all of the pieces/info to draw a definitive conclusion.

When you think about crime and opportunity, it is also interesting that like many places the last 20 years in the US has been great for those at the top, not as great for those at the bottom (roughly defining as real household income by deciles). If the bottom was struggling, one may wonder whether this would induce more crime (but it didn't). Perhaps this is somewhat related to the concept of absolute poverty vs. relative poverty? Some will say it's not good to be poor anywhere, but if one has to be poor you might as well be poor in the United States.

Anyways, appreciate the previously replies. I am still watching how things go from here and what certain cities/states do/don't do.

Good day to all...
Very interesting insights! Although I do agree that it’s difficult to draw a definitive conclusion without the exact details of each incarceration, otherwise you would be assuming.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 7:54 pm

tiktok wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 9:15 am
Lisafuller wrote:
Mon, 22 Aug 2022 11:59 pm
Just yesterday, Billie Eilish came to the stadium to perform.
Yup, no quality concerts :D
My daughter is a huge fan, and from what I’ve heard when she blasts her music, she’s pretty talented. Very good voice for someone so young. Can’t really comment on the quality of her performance as though, I obviously was not at the concert.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 7:55 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
My son & and his DJ wife went.. Haven't had any feedback on it but I know both of my children are pro LGBTQ (but are not themselves of or in the movement-sympathizers only). Will probably get the lowdown on it this Sunday when they come over. His wife probably had Comp tickets like they usually get with good seating.
Sympathizers or supporters?

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 7:56 pm

malcontent wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 8:11 am
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
My son & and his DJ wife went.. Haven't had any feedback on it but I know both of my children are pro LGBTQ (but are not themselves of or in the movement-sympathizers only). Will probably get the lowdown on it this Sunday when they come over. His wife probably had Comp tickets like they usually get with good seating.
Didn’t you miss some alphabets?
LOL! Apparently it’s LGBTQIA++ now, the I stands for intersex and the A asexual, and the pluses I guess are for any other letters missed out.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 7:57 pm

malcontent wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 8:53 am
NYY1 wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 8:56 am
Perhaps this is somewhat related to the concept of absolute poverty vs. relative poverty? Some will say it's not good to be poor anywhere, but if one has to be poor you might as well be poor in the United States.
I definitely agree. When my brother lived in Texas he would occasionally do day labor - where they would pick up a group of folks in a pickup truck, anyone who was willing to do some manual labor — it consisted mostly Mexicans in the US illegally. He made friends with many of them and they had this saying, it’s better to be in the US without a job than in Mexico with a job!
You’re absolutely right, absolute poverty is a different story though, there are so many homeless people and not nearly enough resources. If you’re just relatively poor, you still have a roof over your head and the means to someday get yourself in better financial standing.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 7:58 pm

tiktok wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 10:43 am
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
LGBTQ
Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.
She’s not openly gay, and if I recall correctly she has dated men - her most recent partner was male. I think she’s just one of those who doesn’t want to put any labels on her sexuality, it’s what most young people are doing nowadays.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 8:00 pm

malcontent wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 11:43 am
tiktok wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 10:43 am
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
LGBTQ
Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.
She dated a male rapper, but maybe she goes both ways? If the media is to be believed, 21% of Gen Z is LGBTQ.

https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-new ... -rcna16556

Clearly they are excited about growing the numbers, but they might be disappointed as removal of BPA from plastics could result in much lower numbers in the future.
Not surprised at all, if anything I would’ve guessed that more young people were LGBTQ. Even in the most conservative schools, you won’t be able to find a single kid who doesn’t know a queer kid.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 8:02 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 3:04 pm
tiktok wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 10:43 am
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
LGBTQ
Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.
This is what has caused all the stink about Billie....(not that she's confirmed anything but if the shoe fits wear it). Plenty of articles out there.
https://www.newsweek.com/billie-eilish- ... ed-1600330
Heard about this, it was a whole scandal. I do see why she has chosen not to confirm her sexuality though, come out and you lose the conservative audience, stay in and you keep everybody interested.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 8:03 pm

malcontent wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 4:37 pm
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 3:04 pm
tiktok wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 10:43 am


Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.
This is what has caused all the stink about Billie....(not that she's confirmed anything but if the shoe fits wear it). Plenty of articles out there.
https://www.newsweek.com/billie-eilish- ... ed-1600330
Queerbating… what will they think of next?
I don’t have a huge problem with this, you can see why kids would be upset if they felt like somebody was faking their sexuality to manipulate their audience. What I do not understand are the kids who identify as animals or inanimate objects, that is a lot more ridiculous.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 24 Aug 2022 8:03 pm

sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 4:43 pm
Hey Mal, based on the article you linked, Maybe the younger generation knows something we don't know. At least they have a 10% higher chance of getting laid than the straight types do. :lol: :lol:
Not with some of their personalities, a lot of them are straight up obnoxious, very entitled.

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Re: Mass exodus

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Thu, 25 Aug 2022 1:01 am

Lisafuller wrote:
Wed, 24 Aug 2022 7:55 pm
sundaymorningstaple wrote:
Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:35 pm
My son & and his DJ wife went.. Haven't had any feedback on it but I know both of my children are pro LGBTQ (but are not themselves of or in the movement-sympathizers only). Will probably get the lowdown on it this Sunday when they come over. His wife probably had Comp tickets like they usually get with good seating.
Sympathizers or supporters?
Good question. I'm an old farmer who doesn't have the best or largest vocabulary so I had to think awhile on what you stated. I think I mean sympathizers. You won't find them at pinkdot or any other functions but are sympathetic to their desires. Obviously not the radical ones but basically the right to affection with their own kind without being arrested, etc.
SOME PEOPLE TRY TO TURN BACK THEIR ODOMETERS. NOT ME. I WANT PEOPLE TO KNOW WHY I LOOK THIS WAY. I'VE TRAVELED A LONG WAY, AND SOME OF THE ROADS WEREN'T PAVED. ~ Will Rogers

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