Mass exodus

[Lisafuller]

No concerts either, when they do its usually washed up bands or the k pop j pop crap.
@malcontent - cant tell you how refreshing it feels to be in a country where you can just drive to the mountains or waterfalls and camp out for a few days
The pandemic has made me reevaluate my outlook in life, $$ is no longer a motivator, new experiences, hobbies, fitness etc all seem much more pleasurable than sitting in an apartment taking endless calls and ordering grab food

To be fair, concerts haven’t been a thing anywhere throughout the pandemic. Just yesterday, Billie Eilish came to the stadium to perform.

[Lisafuller]

I’m aware the crime rate in the US has seen a bit of an increasing trend since the mid-2010’s, but I am speaking about the long-term trend which is still way down…

Yup, even though it may go up and down from year to year in general the trend is downward which can only be taken positively.

[Lisafuller]

With the world in a state of flux at the moment, the more options you have available the smarter you are. Don't wait until you are 75 and then realize you no longer have any options other than just sucking it up.

Right, we can all feel however about whichever country we stay in, but at the end of the day it’s always better to have the option to stay than to not have that option at all.

[Lisafuller]

.....
Personally for me, the last 2 years were depressing, Apart from the fact that i can earn more here, i don’t see a good enough reason to stay on here, canada australia Uk all seem much more attractive
Plus after staying 10 years+ in a country with PR i feel its a wasted investment in this country
Had i spent those years in any other country,PR or citizenship is guaranteed.

.....
The pandemic has made me reevaluate my outlook in life, $$ is no longer a motivator, new experiences, hobbies, fitness etc all seem much more pleasurable than sitting in an apartment taking endless calls and ordering grab food

Nice attempt at mocking me, instead of realising peoples intentions have changed after covid
I actually have, I’m giving it one more year until my pass expires, in between now and then I’ll try one more pr application, Whats changed is I have a new born baby (son) and if that doesn’t come through its bye bye
I Already have a Canadian work visa valid for 3 years which is convertible into a pr and citizenship after just 6 months of living in canada
Not only that my company being US based does have roles open in Canada, i can just move internally quite easily

What changed my thinking is the birth of my son, I would like to give him the passport of a country that can help him succeed in the future.

And fyi Im not a beggar,I’m a chooser baby

I already told you what my plan was quite clearly I’m not whining, I outlined the reasons of my decisions
Also singapore pr is useful to start a business, Another thing which i have considered.
This is why I’m inclined to stay for another year and give it an another application shot
Makes sense?
Also my job is pretty good, I like what I’m doing in my current role, i cover Asean, so the work is not just related to singapore but 6 other countries, staying here still allows me to travel once in a while. My aussie boss is also thinking of moving me to Sydney, so all good headaches to have so I’m taking my time and not because wd40 says “vote with feet”

It's not good enough here and Canada is more attractive? Or, it is good enough, so good that you will try to get PR one more time?

I think what wd40 is saying is you have Canada available. Take it if you think it's better.

Canada is definitely better, as i detailed before i am taking that option, However only wanted to do move there next year.
The only drawback is the weather i prefer the warmth of south east asia over canada anyday

Where are you from originally?

[Lisafuller]

That's easy. Options.

Exactly, one needs to keep all options available.
There’s so much geopolitical tension at the moment, its not wise to put all eggs in one basket

Even without considering the current state of the world, it’s always smart to keep your options open. Unless of course, you have an emotional attachment to a particular country in which case you would want to stay loyal and never leave. But that doesn’t seem to be the case here.

[Lisafuller]

I’m aware the crime rate in the US has seen a bit of an increasing trend since the mid-2010’s, but I am speaking about the long-term trend which is still way down…

The point is the long-term trend stopped and reversed in the mid-2010s. The trend can't be going both ways; they (crime rates) are no longer on a long-term downtrend as you mentioned. In contrast, I do think it is accurate to say the crime rates are still much lower than they were in prior decades like the 90s, and the situation is not as bad as the media makes it out to be. I think my original reply reflected this.

They've been increasing for the last decade or so, even before the COVID related spike. The rates are still much lower than they were say 2 or 3 decades ago though,

Regardless, I do encourage you to look at the incarceration rates and how much they changed over time vs. how much the crime rates changed over time.

No worries NYY1, I think we are both saying the same thing, just semantics… it depends on the time period being considered and how “long-term” is defined for trending purposes.

Help me understand why the incarceration rate matters. If incarceration rates increased during the past several decades, it stands to reason that there should be less crime with fewer criminals on the street (one would hope that means law enforcement is working). Alternatively, if the incarceration rates have dropped, it means fewer criminals are being spawned by society, that seems even more preferable, clearly.

Or it could mean that the jails are filling up in response to increased rates of crime, with there being more criminals roaming free than those being caught.

[Lisafuller]

From the sounds of it, Singapore isn't exactly going to make it easy and hand you that additional option. And this is precisely one of the reasons why Indian PR applications are under the scanner at the ICA. (I assume from the name, that you are an Indian)

Of course no pr application unless coming from a Malaysian or indonesian is going be an easy approval and will be under the scanner
Indians obviously have borne the brunt of it, That being said plenty of Indians i know already received pr after applying 5/6 times.

For me its just a shot at the PR lottery pot if i am lucky so be it, otherwise i do have other plans lined up.

It is not a lottery. They know exactly whom to give and whom not to give. The people who got it after applying 5/6 times didn't get it just by chance. They must have shown some commitment and it cannot be faked.

So if I were you, I would take the other options before they dry up, if you are really serious about them. Options don't remain open forever.

Yup, definitely not a lottery. If they got it after applying six times, chances are they improved their profile along the way and showed persistence and commitment in the process by continuing to apply time after time.

[Lisafuller]

No worries NYY1, I think we are both saying the same thing, just semantics… it depends on the time period being considered and how “long-term” is defined for trending purposes.

Help me understand why the incarceration rate matters. If incarceration rates increased during the past several decades, it stands to reason that there should be less crime with fewer criminals on the street (one would hope that means law enforcement is working). Alternatively, if the incarceration rates have dropped, it means fewer criminals are being spawned by society, that seems even more preferable, clearly.

Gotcha, I think we both understand...

My thought on the incarcerations is as follows, although I guess this is open to interpretation and happy to hear other thoughts.
-The crime index roughly got cut in half from the early-90s to the low (2014)
-In 1980, incarcerations per 100,000 was at 310. It peaked at about 1,000 in 2008.
-I don't have the exact data but roughly eyeballing it perhaps the incarceration rate was ~500 in the early-90s. I.e. it doubled over the next 15 years and jail time both got certain people off the streets and served as a deterrent to others.
-I guess this is where we differ. I don't see the drop in incarcerations as evidence that fewer criminals are being spawned by society. There is a bit of a lag but as incarcerations started dropping, crime started increasing (the exact opposite of what happened above)

So is it there's less crime (stats don't say so last 5+ years) or the system (police, judicial) is becoming less of a deterrent and more people are unfortunately undertaking unproductive behavior?

The incarceration rate is undoubtedly a function of many things; actual crimes, catching the people (law enforcement bandwidth and effectiveness), sentencing, and serving terms/being released. Maybe this is the "news" but do you think the social/political environment is one that is tough on crime or one that wants to give everyone a second, third, fourth, and fifth chance? There are also movements to cut police budgets or in some parts of society a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not so sure those are good things.

So continue to watch. I don't think anyone wants to see things deteriorate but I read the situation differently from you and this also impacts the outlook (unless something else changes).

I think SMS might be onto something, the unemployment rate might be the best predictor of crime rates. I haven’t looked at the data, but in my youth I had more than a few “friends of friends” who were genuine criminals to varying degrees, several went missing for long stretches because they were doing hard time. I always felt like a sheep among wolves. But such is life in a small hick town where I grew up!

If they would have had better job opportunities, I can believe they might not have been so compelled to do the crime… although for some of them, I have to believe it was genetic. If you could meet them, you’d know what I mean - they were genuinely out of their mind and had little in the way of common sense, and nothing in the way of morality.

Definitely. Unemployment can push people to do crazy things, all just to have a roof over their heads.

[Lisafuller]

I think SMS might be onto something, the unemployment rate might be the best predictor of crime rates. I haven’t looked at the data, but in my youth I had more than a few “friends of friends” who were genuine criminals to varying degrees, several went missing for long stretches because they were doing hard time. I always felt like a sheep among wolves. But such is life in a small hick town where I grew up!

If they would have had better job opportunities, I can believe they might not have been so compelled to do the crime… although for some of them, I have to believe it was genetic. If you could meet them, you’d know what I mean - they were genuinely out of their mind and had little in the way of common sense, and nothing in the way of morality.

There's no doubt crime is a function of opportunity cost; both what you have to lose in terms of positives and what is the penalty if you get caught. In general, more opportunity should lower crime. The unemployment rate is cyclical but the crime index didn't really change or actually kept going down after the early-2000s and 2008 recessions. Instead, there was a longer-term trend that existed from the 90s until the mid part of the last decade. Why? To me, this suggests there was a larger factor at play that overrode the short-term fluctuations one would expect to see with (cyclically) changing economic environments.

I don't doubt that the issues mentioned are making things worse. I guess I am unconvinced that is the only/main factor (although I could be wrong).

Said another way, do you think they can lower the incarcerations per 100,000 back to 300-500 and the crime index will stay at around 400 (by some measures, the incarceration rate was 6xx in 2021)? If so, then society would in fact be producing fewer criminals. I.e. the large spike in incarcerations cleaned up the mess and everyone learnt their lesson (and now behaves).

I guess TBD...

In some cases people commit crimes with a specific goal that’s getting thrown into jail, then at the very least they would have three guaranteed meals a day and a roof over their head. Pretty sad if you think about it.

[NYY1]

No worries NYY1, I think we are both saying the same thing, just semantics… it depends on the time period being considered and how “long-term” is defined for trending purposes.

Help me understand why the incarceration rate matters. If incarceration rates increased during the past several decades, it stands to reason that there should be less crime with fewer criminals on the street (one would hope that means law enforcement is working). Alternatively, if the incarceration rates have dropped, it means fewer criminals are being spawned by society, that seems even more preferable, clearly.

Gotcha, I think we both understand...

My thought on the incarcerations is as follows, although I guess this is open to interpretation and happy to hear other thoughts.
-The crime index roughly got cut in half from the early-90s to the low (2014)
-In 1980, incarcerations per 100,000 was at 310. It peaked at about 1,000 in 2008.
-I don't have the exact data but roughly eyeballing it perhaps the incarceration rate was ~500 in the early-90s. I.e. it doubled over the next 15 years and jail time both got certain people off the streets and served as a deterrent to others.
-I guess this is where we differ. I don't see the drop in incarcerations as evidence that fewer criminals are being spawned by society. There is a bit of a lag but as incarcerations started dropping, crime started increasing (the exact opposite of what happened above)

So is it there's less crime (stats don't say so last 5+ years) or the system (police, judicial) is becoming less of a deterrent and more people are unfortunately undertaking unproductive behavior?

The incarceration rate is undoubtedly a function of many things; actual crimes, catching the people (law enforcement bandwidth and effectiveness), sentencing, and serving terms/being released. Maybe this is the "news" but do you think the social/political environment is one that is tough on crime or one that wants to give everyone a second, third, fourth, and fifth chance? There are also movements to cut police budgets or in some parts of society a lack of respect for law enforcement. I'm not so sure those are good things.

So continue to watch. I don't think anyone wants to see things deteriorate but I read the situation differently from you and this also impacts the outlook (unless something else changes).

I was thinking about this some more and perhaps I didn't pickup on what you were trying to say (I would have phrased it a bit differently but that is neither here nor there).

Basically, there is both the stock and flow of incarcerated individuals (unfortunately). If crime dropped from the early-90s to mid-2010s (which it did), all else equal fewer and fewer people should be added to the facilities each year. Eventually, the number in the facilities will start to decline as individuals are released (served sentence). I.e. fewer criminals means fewer incarcerations (and not the other way around).

So I retract my prior reply above (or at least don't stand by it so strongly), as really I don't have all of the pieces/info to draw a definitive conclusion.

When you think about crime and opportunity, it is also interesting that like many places the last 20 years in the US has been great for those at the top, not as great for those at the bottom (roughly defining as real household income by deciles). If the bottom was struggling, one may wonder whether this would induce more crime (but it didn't). Perhaps this is somewhat related to the concept of absolute poverty vs. relative poverty? Some will say it's not good to be poor anywhere, but if one has to be poor you might as well be poor in the United States.

Anyways, appreciate the previously replies. I am still watching how things go from here and what certain cities/states do/don't do.

Good day to all...

[tiktok]

Just yesterday, Billie Eilish came to the stadium to perform.

Yup, no quality concerts

[sundaymorningstaple]

My son & and his DJ wife went.. Haven't had any feedback on it but I know both of my children are pro LGBTQ (but are not themselves of or in the movement-sympathizers only). Will probably get the lowdown on it this Sunday when they come over. His wife probably had Comp tickets like they usually get with good seating.

[malcontent]

My son & and his DJ wife went.. Haven't had any feedback on it but I know both of my children are pro LGBTQ (but are not themselves of or in the movement-sympathizers only). Will probably get the lowdown on it this Sunday when they come over. His wife probably had Comp tickets like they usually get with good seating.

Didn’t you miss some alphabets?

[malcontent]

Perhaps this is somewhat related to the concept of absolute poverty vs. relative poverty? Some will say it's not good to be poor anywhere, but if one has to be poor you might as well be poor in the United States.

I definitely agree. When my brother lived in Texas he would occasionally do day labor - where they would pick up a group of folks in a pickup truck, anyone who was willing to do some manual labor — it consisted mostly Mexicans in the US illegally. He made friends with many of them and they had this saying, it’s better to be in the US without a job than in Mexico with a job!

[tiktok]

LGBTQ

Billy Eilish is gay? If she is, I doubt she would have been allowed to play here.