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Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

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the observer
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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by the observer » Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:17 pm

smoulder wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:02 pm
the observer wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:39 pm
Myasis Dragon wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:29 pm


^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!
4. Leaders without any term limits usually has grandiose ambitions. Typically expansionist policies.

5. Economic lifeline by China was not unexpected. But there’s always some elements of surprise, ie UAE and India. Moral is, there are no permanent friends, just permanent interests. Everyone for themselves.
India is not a surprise. India had close ties with the Soviet union and now Russia. India simply wouldn't want to mess up its relationship with Russia.
Pardon my ignorance as I thought the Quad meant that India would stand in the West’s camp

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by smoulder » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 12:12 am

the observer wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:17 pm
smoulder wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 11:02 pm
the observer wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:39 pm


4. Leaders without any term limits usually has grandiose ambitions. Typically expansionist policies.

5. Economic lifeline by China was not unexpected. But there’s always some elements of surprise, ie UAE and India. Moral is, there are no permanent friends, just permanent interests. Everyone for themselves.
India is not a surprise. India had close ties with the Soviet union and now Russia. India simply wouldn't want to mess up its relationship with Russia.
Pardon my ignorance as I thought the Quad meant that India would stand in the West’s camp
That is a recent development. While it is true that Russian arms imports by India have dropped recently, Russia is still a major source of weapons. I believe that India is trying to balance its new friends in the Quad with its old friend, namely Russia.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:08 am

smoulder wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 12:22 am
They have overstepped. But *unpopular opinion* here. Show me a military power that is not starting military actions in other countries for lame reasons. You know who is covered in this list.
Really? I would think that most would be on the Ukrainian’s side. Especially because the plight of Ukraine is something that resonates with most Singaporeans… right to self-determination and whatnot.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:10 am

Myasis Dragon wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 1:57 am
Putin was, and is, a corrupt thug who has probably gone insane, given his ramblings in his Monday speech. It's naked aggression of the worst kind, and because of the greed of the western world, imposing sanctions on Russia that would make a real difference (cutting off SWIFT, for example, or an oil blockade) will hurt the western world as much as Russia. Everything done to date in terms of sanctions _may_ cause a 3 percent drop in Russian GDP, nothing they can't live through.

It's also a reminder that China is no friend of the west, now handing additional life lines to Russia, with agreements to buy additional Russian wheat and petroleum. It's a damn ugly mess with no easy solution because of the greed of the west.
Well, there’s not much else the west can do to intervene. Getting involved militarily would constitute a world war, and sanctions are the only way to remotely exert pressure on Russia. Not too sure what you mean by things being an ugly mess “because of the greed of the west” though.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:13 am

x9200 wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 12:49 pm
Myasis Dragon wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 1:57 am
Putin was, and is, a corrupt thug who has probably gone insane, given his ramblings in his Monday speech. It's naked aggression of the worst kind, and because of the greed of the western world, imposing sanctions on Russia that would make a real difference (cutting off SWIFT, for example, or an oil blockade) will hurt the western world as much as Russia. Everything done to date in terms of sanctions _may_ cause a 3 percent drop in Russian GDP, nothing they can't live through.

It's also a reminder that China is no friend of the west, now handing additional life lines to Russia, with agreements to buy additional Russian wheat and petroleum. It's a damn ugly mess with no easy solution because of the greed of the west.
Putin was and is a thug what was clear for long time already. Unfortunately some countries, especially Germany helped him to grow in power and make Europe dependent on Russian gas supply. That's what is the core of the problem with the SWIFT ban. It took a lot of diplomatic effort to convince German gov. to speak in one voice with the rest of EU community for the sanctions to be implemented and military equipment support provided to Ukraine.

So I would not be that concerned about the attitude of China. China actually played surprisingly "fair" abstaining (alongside with India and UAE) the recent UN Security Council Resolution condemning Russia. Over last few centuries of European history Germany and Russia brought war and destruction to many European countries acting too often together. This is what worries me most as it appears some things never change.
I think China is quietly watching things unfold so they can do the same thing to TW in time to come.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:14 am

malcontent wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 3:42 pm
Putin sees the Ukraine as too serious of a threat to Russia’s survival… because it is yet another domino (of many) falling toward the west — and this one is too big and too close (not just geographically, but culturally) for comfort.

In the absence of a better system and life than the west can offer to the Russian people, he sees nationalism as the last vestige of hope to avoid losing his grip on power. He is a clever guy, I wouldn’t underestimate him, no matter which way things go.
The domino effect in action. I’d say much of the issue is an ideological issue, the point is not so much Ukraine wanting to join NATO but rather what it symbolizes- an alignment with the west. That is what Putin cannot handle.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:16 am

x9200 wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 4:26 pm
Putin sees Ukraine, at least its Eastern part as a part of some great Russian empire he keeps dreaming of. I don't really think he considers NATO as a primary threat but clearly if Ukraine joins NATO the imperial aspirations of Putin would have this important part destroyed.
Parallels China and Taiwan, don’t you think? I completely agree- what we see is big ex-superpowers still living in the post WWII days. Times have changed, but they still see their smaller “satellite states” as belonging to them.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:29 am

malcontent wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 4:34 pm
x9200 wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 4:26 pm
Putin sees Ukraine, at least its Eastern part as the part of some great Russian empire he keeps dreaming of. I don't really think he considers NATO as a primary threat but clearly if Ukraine joins NATO the imperial aspirations of Putin would have this important part destroyed.
I see Putin as a person you cannot take at face value. I think he espouses the dream only to stoke nationalism, which in turn helps his own cause, which is all about power & control. Does he actually have a nationalistic bone in his body? I’d say only one type of nationalism, Putinism.
I can’t help but agree. He’s always seemed sinister, and we all know for a fact he’s a cunning, power-hungry you know what. I believe his aggressively advancing the Russian “cause” is just so that he can continue to reinforce his power as a leader.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:30 am

PNGMK wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 4:41 pm
There's some pretty good footage around of the ground fighting. The Ukrainians are not rolling over.

My grandfather died in the Ukraine on June 27 1941 as part of Hitler's operation Barbarossa (his opening of an eastern front).
I found the Ukrainian presidents speech particularly inspiring. You have to give it to the Ukrainian people for defending their land.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:32 am

the observer wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:25 pm
Lisafuller wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 12:03 am
Interested to hear what you all think. Personally think Russia has seriously overstepped, and war should be avoided at all costs.
Quick thoughts:

1. Budapest memorandum or whatever agreements made prior are all bullsh*t. Taiwan have been made well aware of this, this week.

2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next, depending on how Russia comes out of this episode. Hopefully, the sanctions will serve as a deterrent, although if LKY was around and had a say in formulating punishments, it wouldn’t just be sanctions.

3. Black swan events are not that uncommon, the past few years.
Point 2, you’re exactly right. I believe China’s lack of involvement in the conflict has a lot to do with wanting to observe so that they can do the same thing to Taiwan.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:33 am

the observer wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:39 pm
Myasis Dragon wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:29 pm
the observer wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:25 pm
2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next...
^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!
4. Leaders without any term limits usually has grandiose ambitions. Typically expansionist policies.

5. Economic lifeline by China was not unexpected. But there’s always some elements of surprise, ie UAE and India. Moral is, there are no permanent friends, just permanent interests. Everyone for themselves.
This is exactly why its important to impose term limits, so that you can weed out the more egoistic leaders and their plans for extending their power.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by smoulder » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:35 am

Lisafuller wrote:
Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:08 am
smoulder wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 12:22 am
They have overstepped. But *unpopular opinion* here. Show me a military power that is not starting military actions in other countries for lame reasons. You know who is covered in this list.
Really? I would think that most would be on the Ukrainian’s side. Especially because the plight of Ukraine is something that resonates with most Singaporeans… right to self-determination and whatnot.
Don't get me wrong here. I am not for war. It doesn't matter who's on the receiving end - people who have elected governments or people who don't. I'm merely pointing out that military powers on "both sides" routinely do these kinds of shenanigans and get away with it. Not the first time it has happened and not the first time it will happen.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by Lisafuller » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:35 am

malcontent wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:46 pm
Myasis Dragon wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:29 pm
the observer wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 9:25 pm
2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next...
^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!
And if someone in Washington was paying attention, they would update the Taiwan Relations Act immediately.

Strength deters bad guys. Weakness begets war. ~ Mike Pompeo
Update it how?

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by x9200 » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 7:25 am

Lisafuller wrote:
Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:13 am
x9200 wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 12:49 pm
Myasis Dragon wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 1:57 am
Putin was, and is, a corrupt thug who has probably gone insane, given his ramblings in his Monday speech. It's naked aggression of the worst kind, and because of the greed of the western world, imposing sanctions on Russia that would make a real difference (cutting off SWIFT, for example, or an oil blockade) will hurt the western world as much as Russia. Everything done to date in terms of sanctions _may_ cause a 3 percent drop in Russian GDP, nothing they can't live through.

It's also a reminder that China is no friend of the west, now handing additional life lines to Russia, with agreements to buy additional Russian wheat and petroleum. It's a damn ugly mess with no easy solution because of the greed of the west.
Putin was and is a thug what was clear for long time already. Unfortunately some countries, especially Germany helped him to grow in power and make Europe dependent on Russian gas supply. That's what is the core of the problem with the SWIFT ban. It took a lot of diplomatic effort to convince German gov. to speak in one voice with the rest of EU community for the sanctions to be implemented and military equipment support provided to Ukraine.

So I would not be that concerned about the attitude of China. China actually played surprisingly "fair" abstaining (alongside with India and UAE) the recent UN Security Council Resolution condemning Russia. Over last few centuries of European history Germany and Russia brought war and destruction to many European countries acting too often together. This is what worries me most as it appears some things never change.
I think China is quietly watching things unfold so they can do the same thing to TW in time to come.
Not sure. I don't know enough about people of TW and the political situation around to compare and speculate but Russia not only officially recognized Ukraine as an independent state but also was a signing party for 1994 Budapest Memorandum to assure security of Ukraine after Ukraine become a non-nuclear weapon state. I don't see here any clear parallel to TW.

And the response of China is not supportive to Russia at all. Yes, they didn't ban import/export to Russia and didn't join the variety of sanctions other countries are implementing, but they also didn't vote against condemning Russia in the UN SC resolution. More over, Chinese banks normally follow bans imposed and this what already happens:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ommodities

For China, in respect of TW situation, what happens in Ukraine and around the crisis could be actually deterrent as any subject considering military annexation would probably make the international community reacting stronger than before.

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Re: Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

Post by x9200 » Mon, 28 Feb 2022 7:44 am

smoulder wrote:
Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:35 am
Lisafuller wrote:
Mon, 28 Feb 2022 1:08 am
smoulder wrote:
Sun, 27 Feb 2022 12:22 am
They have overstepped. But *unpopular opinion* here. Show me a military power that is not starting military actions in other countries for lame reasons. You know who is covered in this list.
Really? I would think that most would be on the Ukrainian’s side. Especially because the plight of Ukraine is something that resonates with most Singaporeans… right to self-determination and whatnot.
Don't get me wrong here. I am not for war. It doesn't matter who's on the receiving end - people who have elected governments or people who don't. I'm merely pointing out that military powers on "both sides" routinely do these kinds of shenanigans and get away with it. Not the first time it has happened and not the first time it will happen.
Only this time it is in the heart of Europe and already woke the old cold war and WW2 demons. It is not something that happens on some remote continent to people you have never heard about. Not for Europeans and Western community. Nothing like this (a country invading unprovoked an independent state) happened in Europe since WW2.

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