Russia vs Ukraine- thoughts?

[Lisafuller]

Interested to hear what you all think. Personally think Russia has seriously overstepped, and war should be avoided at all costs.

[smoulder]

They have overstepped. But *unpopular opinion* here. Show me a military power that is not starting military actions in other countries for lame reasons. You know who is covered in this list.

[Myasis Dragon]

Putin was, and is, a corrupt thug who has probably gone insane, given his ramblings in his Monday speech. It's naked aggression of the worst kind, and because of the greed of the western world, imposing sanctions on Russia that would make a real difference (cutting off SWIFT, for example, or an oil blockade) will hurt the western world as much as Russia. Everything done to date in terms of sanctions _may_ cause a 3 percent drop in Russian GDP, nothing they can't live through.

It's also a reminder that China is no friend of the west, now handing additional life lines to Russia, with agreements to buy additional Russian wheat and petroleum. It's a damn ugly mess with no easy solution because of the greed of the west.

[x9200]

Putin was, and is, a corrupt thug who has probably gone insane, given his ramblings in his Monday speech. It's naked aggression of the worst kind, and because of the greed of the western world, imposing sanctions on Russia that would make a real difference (cutting off SWIFT, for example, or an oil blockade) will hurt the western world as much as Russia. Everything done to date in terms of sanctions _may_ cause a 3 percent drop in Russian GDP, nothing they can't live through.

It's also a reminder that China is no friend of the west, now handing additional life lines to Russia, with agreements to buy additional Russian wheat and petroleum. It's a damn ugly mess with no easy solution because of the greed of the west.

Putin was and is a thug what was clear for long time already. Unfortunately some countries, especially Germany helped him to grow in power and make Europe dependent on Russian gas supply. That's what is the core of the problem with the SWIFT ban. It took a lot of diplomatic effort to convince German gov. to speak in one voice with the rest of EU community for the sanctions to be implemented and military equipment support provided to Ukraine.

So I would not be that concerned about the attitude of China. China actually played surprisingly "fair" abstaining (alongside with India and UAE) the recent UN Security Council Resolution condemning Russia. Over last few centuries of European history Germany and Russia brought war and destruction to many European countries acting too often together. This is what worries me most as it appears some things never change.

[malcontent]

Putin sees the Ukraine as too serious of a threat to Russia’s survival… because it is yet another domino (of many) falling toward the west — and this one is too big and too close (not just geographically, but culturally) for comfort.

In the absence of a better system and life than the west can offer to the Russian people, he sees nationalism as the last vestige of hope to avoid losing his grip on power. He is a clever guy, I wouldn’t underestimate him, no matter which way things go.

[x9200]

Putin sees Ukraine, at least its Eastern part as a part of some great Russian empire he keeps dreaming of. I don't really think he considers NATO as a primary threat but clearly if Ukraine joins NATO the imperial aspirations of Putin would have this important part destroyed.

[malcontent]

Putin sees Ukraine, at least its Eastern part as the part of some great Russian empire he keeps dreaming of. I don't really think he considers NATO as a primary threat but clearly if Ukraine joins NATO the imperial aspirations of Putin would have this important part destroyed.

I see Putin as a person you cannot take at face value. I think he espouses the dream only to stoke nationalism, which in turn helps his own cause, which is all about power & control. Does he actually have a nationalistic bone in his body? I’d say only one type of nationalism, Putinism.

[PNGMK]

There's some pretty good footage around of the ground fighting. The Ukrainians are not rolling over.

My grandfather died in the Ukraine on June 27 1941 as part of Hitler's operation Barbarossa (his opening of an eastern front).

[x9200]

Putin sees Ukraine, at least its Eastern part as the part of some great Russian empire he keeps dreaming of. I don't really think he considers NATO as a primary threat but clearly if Ukraine joins NATO the imperial aspirations of Putin would have this important part destroyed.

I see Putin as a person you cannot take at face value. I think he espouses the dream only to stoke nationalism, which in turn helps his own cause, which is all about power & control. Does he actually have a nationalistic bone in his body? I’d say only one type of nationalism, Putinism.

Surely it is a quest for more power, but there seems to be more in it.
Here is an article published recently in one of the most influential Polish newspapers. Among other information, it is also based on the analysis of Putin's statements made by his former economical advisor (and other near his circle).
https://www-rp-pl.translate.goog/plus-m ... r_pto=wapp
An interesting read for a better insight in Putin's more general motives and influencing factors.

[the observer]

Interested to hear what you all think. Personally think Russia has seriously overstepped, and war should be avoided at all costs.

Quick thoughts:

1. Budapest memorandum or whatever agreements made prior are all bullsh*t. Taiwan have been made well aware of this, this week.

2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next, depending on how Russia comes out of this episode. Hopefully, the sanctions will serve as a deterrent, although if LKY was around and had a say in formulating punishments, it wouldn’t just be sanctions.

3. Black swan events are not that uncommon, the past few years.

[Myasis Dragon]

2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next...

^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!

[the observer]

2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next...

^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!

4. Leaders without any term limits usually has grandiose ambitions. Typically expansionist policies.

5. Economic lifeline by China was not unexpected. But there’s always some elements of surprise, ie UAE and India. Moral is, there are no permanent friends, just permanent interests. Everyone for themselves.

[malcontent]

2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next...

^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!

And if someone in Washington was paying attention, they would update the Taiwan Relations Act immediately.

Strength deters bad guys. Weakness begets war. ~ Mike Pompeo

[the observer]

2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next...

^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!

And if someone in Washington was paying attention, they would update the Taiwan Relations Act immediately.

Strength deters bad guys. Weakness begets war. ~ Mike Pompeo

Sun Tzu said 'When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard'.


MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military command to put Russia's deterrence forces - a reference to units which include nuclear arms - on high alert, citing aggressive statements by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leaders and economic sanctions against Moscow.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/r ... ne-2523326

End of…
“An eye for an eye will leave the whole world blind.”

[smoulder]

2. China will be taking notes, and Taiwan will be next...

^^^^^^^^^^
This!!!!!

4. Leaders without any term limits usually has grandiose ambitions. Typically expansionist policies.

5. Economic lifeline by China was not unexpected. But there’s always some elements of surprise, ie UAE and India. Moral is, there are no permanent friends, just permanent interests. Everyone for themselves.

India is not a surprise. India had close ties with the Soviet union and now Russia. India simply wouldn't want to mess up its relationship with Russia.