-
Quote
-
2
login to like this post
Post
by malcontent » Thu, 17 Jun 2021 11:30 pm
I know people in my office who have been working for over a decade and are just sitting on a pile of cash savings. Personally, I believe that stocks, when invested in a sufficiently diversified manner, have the best risk adjusted return to be had. To convince myself, I downloaded the annual returns of the S&P 500 going back to before the Great Depression, then I looked at the best, worst and average 5, 10, 15 and 20 year returns. What I found was on average, you can expect just under 12% per annum in the very long term.
The worst ever 10 year return was close to break even, and surprisingly it wasn’t the during the Great Depression, it was the 10 years during the 2000’s after the tech bubble burst.
Even if we are in a post-Covid bubble now, I honestly don’t see 10
Year returns being less than break-even. And, the worst 15 year return is still a healthy mid-single digit, better than any fixed deposit. No guarantees for the future, but I’m convinced.
It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows - Epictetus