May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

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BigginHill
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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by BigginHill » Tue, 11 May 2021 3:53 pm

A discussion that's entirely absent from our local media...

SCMP opinion piece:

In chasing zero Covid-19 infections, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and others have become trapped by their own success
  • As more transmissible variants emerge, places with very low infection levels must consider ever more stringent controls to maintain the status quo
  • A reluctance to accept the virus will become endemic and populations that see no urgency in getting vaccinated mean the early victors may be the last to reopen


In places that have been successful in suppressing Covid-19, such as mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, there seems to be a reluctance to accept that the disease will become endemic.

The coronavirus variants that are emerging are more transmissible, so to achieve zero or close to zero infections in these places, health authorities say virus control measures must be more stringent than before.

This is neither wise nor tenable for much longer.

With highly effective vaccines available, health authorities in these places should be focused on rolling out mass vaccination quickly so as to achieve a degree of herd immunity. This would allow them to return to normality even if the virus continues to circulate at low levels, without overwhelming the health-care system.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by the observer » Tue, 11 May 2021 4:40 pm

Pointless being fixated by an editor. Scmp as well.

Sg is at the cross roads now, the way I see it.
Between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Stay closed, economy suffers
Open up, and the pandemic turns widespread, the economy will end up suffering.

Catch 22 situation?

Either ways, naysayers waiting to howl and say “I told you so”

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by Wd40 » Tue, 11 May 2021 5:14 pm

BigginHill wrote:
Tue, 11 May 2021 3:53 pm
A discussion that's entirely absent from our local media...

SCMP opinion piece:

In chasing zero Covid-19 infections, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and others have become trapped by their own success
  • As more transmissible variants emerge, places with very low infection levels must consider ever more stringent controls to maintain the status quo
  • A reluctance to accept the virus will become endemic and populations that see no urgency in getting vaccinated mean the early victors may be the last to reopen


In places that have been successful in suppressing Covid-19, such as mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, there seems to be a reluctance to accept that the disease will become endemic.

The coronavirus variants that are emerging are more transmissible, so to achieve zero or close to zero infections in these places, health authorities say virus control measures must be more stringent than before.

This is neither wise nor tenable for much longer.

With highly effective vaccines available, health authorities in these places should be focused on rolling out mass vaccination quickly so as to achieve a degree of herd immunity. This would allow them to return to normality even if the virus continues to circulate at low levels, without overwhelming the health-care system.
Interestingly, Taiwan is the latest member from that list to get hit with covid cases this round, after having done so well in the 2020. Taiwan Stocks fell 4% today.

It seems, you can only delay Covid hit, you cannot eliminate it.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by BBCDoc » Wed, 12 May 2021 7:55 am

I believe the mindset on acceptable outcome has to change.

It can’t be zero transmission, because one travel opens up and humans become humans again, all manners of diseases will reappear and it will be hard to sort the needle from the haystack.

It probably has to be rendering the infection to a Low-cost mild disease that no longer burdens the health system (I.e. no more critical care), though deaths do remain acceptable (as for flu - mainly the very young and very old die).

Hopefully this state of affairs will come about with basic public health practices, vaccines and drug treatments. Once catching C19 is equivalent to flu or HFMD (that was very annoying with kids) where the remedy is to stay home and away from people, we can live our lives again.


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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by ProvenPracticalFlexible » Wed, 12 May 2021 11:03 am

x9200 wrote:
Mon, 10 May 2021 9:14 am
BigginHill wrote:
Sun, 09 May 2021 7:46 pm
I just don't see how the government can back off their zero-covid commitment without losing the electorate. We get a handful of community cases & people's anxiety shoots up sky high. No way the locals will ever accept circulating community infection. Vaccines won't matter much, as they won't remove infection 100% - introduction of vaccines play a much more significant role in populations with significant infection, not zero-covid populations which operate from the opposite position.
I think this zero-covid commitment and the anxiety is a part of the gov's strategy to control the situation. Every day, every place, I see people not really caring to wear the mask, keep safe distance etc. If there was no constant hammering with some fearmongering included, we would likely have a raging epidemic with thousands infections daily.
This is going to change after enough people are vaccinated and then, the anxiety is going to be managed towards non-zero covid acceptance. Taking into account what is the local rate of fatalities associated with covid, this should not be a very difficult task.
I certainly hope you are right, and well what you write makes perfect sense. The challenge is to get the stubborn ones to take up the vaccine as they don't see the need with so few covid deaths in Singapore.

And Singapore can't really afford to stay closed too long after when the rest of the developed world starts opening up. It will cause exodus of expats who've had enough of staying home, and unlike some Singaporeans think, the country depends on foreign talent and companies.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by the observer » Wed, 12 May 2021 11:29 am

Wasnt that long ago, vaccinations were touted as the key to normalize travel. Phuket and it’s no quarantine requirements for tourists, etc etc.

Doesn’t look feasible now with vaccinated peeps getting the virus and possibly being a silent spreader, assuming they’re showing no symptoms.

So, how’s quarantine free travel supposed to resume? Especially for vaccinated peeps

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by Max Headroom » Wed, 12 May 2021 11:42 am

ProvenPracticalFlexible wrote:
Wed, 12 May 2021 11:03 am

I certainly hope you are right, and well what you write makes perfect sense. The challenge is to get the stubborn ones to take up the vaccine as they don't see the need with so few covid deaths in Singapore.
I don't think the gahmen is too worried about low uptake. They've said a few times they expect to be done with the vaccinations by the end of the year.

I suspect they're aiming to smoke out any stragglers along the way by rewarding the vaccinated ones, not only with a growing number of travel privileges, but also by changing the vaccination policy itself. For example, they can start charging for jabs once we get to the tail end of the program.

If all else fails, they can always deploy the 'While stocks last" approach, ostensibly hinting they may have to dip into their vaccine reserves for the latecomers.

If there's still some hangers-on at this stage, they can say they're now running out of Pfizer and Moderna, due to low global availability and will need to start deploying their stash of - gasp! - Sinovac.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by BigginHill » Wed, 12 May 2021 12:21 pm

I've already offered the "Hello Kitty" doll incentive suggestion to get the vaccinations rolling.

Seriously though, I think limited supplies are the main reason they're not currently going all-out on winning everyone over. As soon as 100% supplies are truly secured, they'll start incentivising.

The vaccines aren't miracle drugs, but if Israel is any indication (infections dropped +99.5%) they're highly efficient at stopping population-wide spread, which is what the World needs. Put zero-covid in the nice to have pile.
Max Headroom wrote:
Wed, 12 May 2021 11:42 am
...and will need to start deploying their stash of - gasp! - Sinovac.
Ouch. Didn't we agree not to stoke any further anxiety! :D
Last edited by BigginHill on Thu, 13 May 2021 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by Lisafuller » Wed, 12 May 2021 7:23 pm

Wd40 wrote:
Mon, 10 May 2021 10:47 pm
Kids being able to go to school has been the biggest blessing of being in Singapore + we working from home. This was the best combination. However, now my daughter's International School has moved to HBL. This is not good. I dont think having kids study from home is going to go down well in Singapore. So whatever CB is needed must go ahead, have anyone who can work from home to work from home. Kids need to be in school, continue with goods trade, restrict people movement to only what is essential and I think SG will come out okay. There is lots of reflationary demand for goods and SG will benefit from it. Local population will consume the local services more as overseas travel is out, so that will get to a sustainable level. I think this is not such a bad situation.
We are lucky our daughter’s school is still doing in-person learning. This is her senior year so she has her A levels in November. Having to learn the content online would be nearly impossible.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by the observer » Wed, 12 May 2021 11:20 pm

BigginHill wrote:
Mon, 10 May 2021 3:33 pm
A snap lockdown to some degree is certainly an option, to stomp out persistent community infections...

Strong incentive to get things completely under control before WEF aug 17-20.

I suppose there has to be a formula that they’re following. Covid thresholds and action plans…

Mini lockdowns happening as of today. Changi/jewel staff are asked to stay home. Airport/jewel is out of bounds for visitors…

https://mothership.sg/2021/05/changi-ai ... FmB9ptOBl8

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by Jgrif96229 » Thu, 13 May 2021 12:30 am

This will be the second year where people are going to be limited with how to use their vacation time. Most have done staycations. Any alternatives?
Joseph griffin

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by the observer » Thu, 13 May 2021 3:54 pm

Readings for a quiet/boring afternoon


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 4.442663v1

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by midlet2013 » Thu, 13 May 2021 5:19 pm

All this analysis that u folks r doing is based on new data and situation, which is, to day the Covid is gonna stay for ever.

Vaccination n moving on is the only reasonable option now. And I am sure Singapore will adapt to this new reality.

Just a few weeks back, no one would have questioned the strategy when cases for 0 or 1 for days at a time.

Singapore did a great job. Always felts safe and confident. I am sure Singapore will continue to do what’s best.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by the observer » Fri, 14 May 2021 10:16 pm

BigginHill wrote:
Tue, 11 May 2021 3:53 pm
A discussion that's entirely absent from our local media...

SCMP opinion piece:

In chasing zero Covid-19 infections, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and others have become trapped by their own success
  • As more transmissible variants emerge, places with very low infection levels must consider ever more stringent controls to maintain the status quo
  • A reluctance to accept the virus will become endemic and populations that see no urgency in getting vaccinated mean the early victors may be the last to reopen


In places that have been successful in suppressing Covid-19, such as mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, there seems to be a reluctance to accept that the disease will become endemic.

The coronavirus variants that are emerging are more transmissible, so to achieve zero or close to zero infections in these places, health authorities say virus control measures must be more stringent than before.

This is neither wise nor tenable for much longer.

With highly effective vaccines available, health authorities in these places should be focused on rolling out mass vaccination quickly so as to achieve a degree of herd immunity. This would allow them to return to normality even if the virus continues to circulate at low levels, without overwhelming the health-care system.

This goes counter to what SCMP editor suggests! Oh no.

Issue is columnists do not have to deal with politics and lives.

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Re: May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

Post by BigginHill » Tue, 18 May 2021 12:17 am

Max Headroom wrote:
Sun, 09 May 2021 10:58 am
But the WEF meeting later on in the year is an awesome opportunity for Singapore to shine in the global arena. Pretty sure the gahmen is super-motivated to navigate the road ahead as best it can.
World Economic Forum cancels special annual meeting in Singapore

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