May 1, 2021. Covid 19 community cases. What Happened?

[Max Headroom]

It's not going to be smooth sailing all the way lah. Especially with quite a few Asian countries' cases upticking into record territory these days and local case numbers here ostensibly itching to go up.

But the WEF meeting later on in the year is an awesome opportunity for Singapore to shine in the global arena. Pretty sure the gahmen is super-motivated to navigate the road ahead as best it can.

The good news is that the west seems to be getting more of a handle on the pandemic, with substantial numbers of people there being fully vaccinated and general optimism returning.

[Wd40]

I am not so optimistic. The very slow vaccine rollout if annoying. The inability to use your status as vaccinated is annoying. The real risk to my job with a CB is annoying.

How is the O&G and the whole tanker fueling ecosystem doing now? I would imagine with oil prices shooting up and shipping prices and bunker prices going through the roof, this whole ecosystem must be doing really well?

[BigginHill]

It's not going to be smooth sailing all the way lah. Especially with quite a few Asian countries' cases upticking into record territory these days and local case numbers here ostensibly itching to go up.

But the WEF meeting later on in the year is an awesome opportunity for Singapore to shine in the global arena. Pretty sure the gahmen is super-motivated to navigate the road ahead as best it can.

The good news is that the west seems to be getting more of a handle on the pandemic, with substantial numbers of people there being fully vaccinated and general optimism returning.

SCMP article:

As West races back to travel, ‘zero-Covid’ economies like Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia face hermit risk

• In a world where Covid-19 becomes endemic, economies reliant on sealed borders to keep the virus at bay will have painted themselves into a corner, experts say

• Places pursuing herd immunity, such as the United States and Europe, are already opening up. If Asian economies want to do the same, they too may need to learn to live with the virus

I've mentioned this issue several times. I also think we've painted ourselves into a corner.

And I do believe Singapore is likely to enter a prolonged period of isolation. (3-5 years)

I just don't see how the government can back off their zero-covid commitment without losing the electorate. We get a handful of community cases & people's anxiety shoots up sky high. No way the locals will ever accept circulating community infection. Vaccines won't matter much, as they won't remove infection 100% - introduction of vaccines play a much more significant role in populations with significant infection, not zero-covid populations which operate from the opposite position.

Also the government clearly seeks to turn COVID resilience into a sign of strength, projecting confidence in keeping residents & business safe, while most other countries have fumbled the ball. It's a solid credential to the outside world.

However, if we're truly looking ahead at 3-5 years of continued isolation, I think it makes sense considering relocating outside Singapore, as parts of the outside world gradually regain normalcy.

[the observer]

Name me an Asian country that’s rushed to open itself ahead of Singapore.

The thing I have grown to know about Singapore after being here for so long is that the policies are fluid. Nothing is cast in stone. Except maybe ethnic quotas for PR/Citizens

[BigginHill]

Name me an Asian country that’s rushed to open itself ahead of Singapore.

Maldives, Sri Lanka?

[the observer]

My bad.

It’ll be a litmus test to see whether covid will ravage Sri Langka’s economy from here on, or it’s just a hiccup.

Maldives, they don’t quite have a choice, being poor and tourism dependent.

Meanwhile. Today’s report states that a few in the community has the double mutant. B1617

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/ ... may-update

[the observer]

Worth reading this.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/india/ ... 414999.cms

[x9200]

I just don't see how the government can back off their zero-covid commitment without losing the electorate. We get a handful of community cases & people's anxiety shoots up sky high. No way the locals will ever accept circulating community infection. Vaccines won't matter much, as they won't remove infection 100% - introduction of vaccines play a much more significant role in populations with significant infection, not zero-covid populations which operate from the opposite position.

I think this zero-covid commitment and the anxiety is a part of the gov's strategy to control the situation. Every day, every place, I see people not really caring to wear the mask, keep safe distance etc. If there was no constant hammering with some fearmongering included, we would likely have a raging epidemic with thousands infections daily.
This is going to change after enough people are vaccinated and then, the anxiety is going to be managed towards non-zero covid acceptance. Taking into account what is the local rate of fatalities associated with covid, this should not be a very difficult task.

[BigginHill]

This is going to change after enough people are vaccinated and then, the anxiety is going to be managed towards non-zero covid acceptance. Taking into account what is the local rate of fatalities associated with covid, this should not be a very difficult task.

I sincerely hope you're right!

We're fighting against a siege mentality & high level of kiasi in the population.

I remember discussing our Malaysia border closure with taxi drivers etc back in july-aug 2020 & commiserating on how disruptive the closure was for all of us. However, whenever I suggested slowly opening the border to Malaysia or Thailand - "oh, we dont' really trust their numbers, everyone's infected there, better keep everything closed" etc. At the time Malaysia and Thailand reported low single digit cases nationwide.

Their infection numbers have subsequently rocketed upwards, so perhaps taxi uncle philosophy does win out!

All in the pre-vaccination era though, so we'll see...

One thing I'm sure of - Singapore will not let things get out of control again. (dorms etc) They'll strike down hard, China style. I don't think we'll see a CB #2 (numbers haven't started spiralling), but they will call one on the spot if they feel it's necessary to stamp out the community infection. Again, I don't think a CB #2 will happen.

Btw, another thing from the SCMP article.

Bruzzone also criticised media coverage for stoking fear with outsized attention paid to variants and other risks, including the approximately one-in-a-million chance of fatal blood clots associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine – a risk far lower than many everyday activities.

I personally feel the talk on variants is getting disproportionate attention as well.

Also I wonder if the regular flu will be elevated to the legally undesirable ranks as well. Risk taking is just not in vogue - sign of the times.

[Max Headroom]

I agree that the media often tends to paint a more dire picture than is necessary. Boring doesn't really sell as well, so they're incentivized to add a bit of drama to the narrative du jour.

That being said, I think the hazards of mutations are being grossly under-reported.

Most mutations, being the completely random events that they are, turn out to be inconsequential, both to virus and host. A fair number of mutations even undermine the virus's ability to do its thing and may actually cause its early demise.

But mutations will continue to take place all the same.

If you want to increase the odds of a mutation hitting the killer-jackpot, you give the virus:

1. More time
2. Most hosts

In other words, the last thing you want is a pandemic, let alone one that lasts for years and infects millions upon millions of people. It's like giving the virus countless 4-D tickets. The chances of striking are still tiny, but it eventually it will happen.

[BigginHill]

I found this article interesting:

In mutant variants, has Covid-19 shown its best tricks?

"Although it will continue to mutate, immunologists and virologists said they suspect this coronavirus has a fixed number of moves in its arsenal."

"It is plausible that this virus has a relatively limited number of antibody escape mutations it can make before it has played all of its cards, so to speak," said Dr Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in San Diego.

That could enable drug-makers to stay on top of the virus as they develop booster vaccines directly targeting current variants, while governments struggle to tame a pandemic that has killed nearly three million people.

I agree that the media often tends to paint a more dire picture than is necessary. Boring doesn't really sell as well, so they're incentivized to add a bit of drama to the narrative du jour.

On the SciTechDaily front page:

[BigginHill]

Again, I don't think a CB #2 will happen.

Hmm, replace "think" with "hope" - ...

[the observer]

Data dependent. The gahmen reacts to data.
A few more deaths and it will happen. My 2cts

[BigginHill]

A snap lockdown to some degree is certainly an option, to stomp out persistent community infections...

Strong incentive to get things completely under control before WEF aug 17-20.

[Wd40]

Kids being able to go to school has been the biggest blessing of being in Singapore + we working from home. This was the best combination. However, now my daughter's International School has moved to HBL. This is not good. I dont think having kids study from home is going to go down well in Singapore. So whatever CB is needed must go ahead, have anyone who can work from home to work from home. Kids need to be in school, continue with goods trade, restrict people movement to only what is essential and I think SG will come out okay. There is lots of reflationary demand for goods and SG will benefit from it. Local population will consume the local services more as overseas travel is out, so that will get to a sustainable level. I think this is not such a bad situation.