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Why did this forum die?

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Wd40
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Re: Why did this forum die?

Post by Wd40 » Tue, 15 Sep 2020 3:01 pm

Max Headroom wrote:
Tue, 15 Sep 2020 11:15 am
Thanks WD.

That said, it looks like we're at opposite ends of the spectrum. I believe Tech is in for a mega-thrashing and it's going to drag everything else down with it. AFAIC, what we're seeing now is dotcom bubble deja-vu all over again.

Of course I can't say when it's going to happen, but it's going to happen. And I reckon the plunge will make March look like an aperitif.

Mind you, I don't blindly believe the Ray Dalios, the Jim Rogers et al, but it's just that what they're saying now makes so much sense; we're in the end game, dude.

In my opinion, it needs to get really, really ugly first, before we can have green shoots. What we're seeing now aren't green shoots; way too many zombies around. Way too much money sloshing around, creating this asset inflation scenario.

The reason I asked about SIA is because I've liked fallen angels in the past and SIA looks tantalizing. But given above, I'll just keep my powder dry for when the bottom falls out of the current madness. Once that happens, I'll go to town.

BTW, the STI looks a bit stodgy, agreed. But Singapore is in the process of a major pivot; AI, fintech, crypto, DeFi, matter of time before all of it is here. This country can turn on a dime sial.

Edit: syntax.
Reason why tech valuation is being justified is that, a lot of the trends towards digital that were already in progress, have got really fast tracked due to this new normal. Something like what would have happened in 5 years has happened in 6 months. The tech companies that have come out with results have all beaten expectations. So it is very different from 2000 dotcom bubble. This time the companies have real earnings and they have huge monopolies which cannot be easily broken.

That is the justification. Ofcourse there could be some bubble stocks in that space, but calling the whole thing a bubble is not accurate.

Regarding STI and SGX, it is just that the exchange doesnt have volume or interest from international investors. Singapore surely has and will have a lot of fintech and AI companies, but they would choose to skip SGX, as they will never get the kind of valuations like Alibaba, Tencent, Zoom, etc if they list in SGX. So they would choose to list on HKEX or Nasdaq where there a global pool of abundant liquidity.

Singapore is great wealth management centre, but unfortunately SGX doesnt have the ambition to become a leading stock exchange like HKEX or Nasdaq. They still have high listing and trading costs. Very low volumes. SGX is going the way of other ASEAN exhanges like Malaysia, Jakarta etc.

This article explains this well:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... ock-market

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Re: Why did this forum die?

Post by Max Headroom » Wed, 16 Sep 2020 11:19 am

I get you, WD. On the STI issues anyway. The fact that it's been hovering around 3k-ish for yonks whilst other indeces have moved way up and down speaks "volumes".

But stodgy or not, after it's cratered, it'll bounce. It's this bounce I'm after.

BTW, FYI, I'm diversified elsewhere.

As for Tech, essentially, our opinions don't differ much. Tech will be huge. The problem is that momentum has overshot and will continue to overshoot for x days/weeks/months, until some catalyst hits and the entire thing subsequently stop-losses way back down. Most punters will ride the plunge all the way to the bottom, because timely consolidation or a buying opportunity.

So yeah, back to square 1.

Bots, retail, day-traders, especially Robin Hood millennials, are going to be the spanner in the works.

Meanwhile, see how lor.

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Re: Why did this forum die?

Post by Wd40 » Thu, 17 Sep 2020 9:24 pm

Max Headroom wrote:
Wed, 16 Sep 2020 11:19 am
I get you, WD. On the STI issues anyway. The fact that it's been hovering around 3k-ish for yonks whilst other indeces have moved way up and down speaks "volumes".

But stodgy or not, after it's cratered, it'll bounce. It's this bounce I'm after.

BTW, FYI, I'm diversified elsewhere.

As for Tech, essentially, our opinions don't differ much. Tech will be huge. The problem is that momentum has overshot and will continue to overshoot for x days/weeks/months, until some catalyst hits and the entire thing subsequently stop-losses way back down. Most punters will ride the plunge all the way to the bottom, because timely consolidation or a buying opportunity.

So yeah, back to square 1.

Bots, retail, day-traders, especially Robin Hood millennials, are going to be the spanner in the works.

Meanwhile, see how lor.
Yeah :) The last couple of weeks volatility in Nasdaq seems to be the start of the shake out of the newly minted robinhood options traders.

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Re: Why did this forum die?

Post by Max Headroom » Fri, 18 Sep 2020 1:09 pm

Standing by :)

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