PNGMK wrote: ↑Tue, 21 Jul 2020 10:35 pm
7 years is the current predicted time it will take to burn through.
My estimate is 3 years, for a non-vaccine scenario. That's how long the spanish flu took for its burn.
At that point in time, we'll gradually and eventually "let go" to let the virus run its course through the global population, keeping the vulnerable groups specifically protected.
There is no "new normal" in the long run.
Eventually the economy needs to pick up. We can't restrict ourselves indefinitely.
Eventually people will want to breathe air without a mask, go to education, go to events, travel freely and socialise with their fellow human beings like we've done for the past 300,000 years etc.
With new & existing antivirals, we can probably suppress global fatality rates significantly, but eventually we will need to face it.
I am, however, positive about developments in:
1. Vaccine
2. Effective antivirals
3. Introduction of near-instant COVID-19 testing
Combined, these will turn the tide. I believe we'll get a clear picture within the next 6-12 mths.