How bad is the economy?

[Wd40]

Hi Guys!

How are you all! Coming here after a long time I had almost become like a like a local and was participating mostly in local forum(HWZ) mainly the Money Mind part of it as I am interested in stock markets

Now that it seems a recession is upon us(again!). This is like the 3rd time in 10 years? I have seen the 2009 recession. Then there was 2013-14 European banking related layoffs, in which I was badly affected, even though the general economy of Singapore did okay then. But now, it is looking like, we are back to square one.

How are things so far? My own European bank seems to be doing ok, even though their share priced halved, all European banks share prices have halved. But I think the budgets are there until this year end. Dont know after that.

[bro75]

I work for an electronics MNC and we are only currently slightly affected. I am working from home and so do most of my colleagues. But if the pandemic goes on for a few more months, I am expecting some cost cutting to happen.

[PNGMK]

The local economy is going to be destroyed. Tourism alone is a massive problem. (20% of GDP or something). While I applaud the govt's efforts to prop things up via the "SIA rescue packages" (because ultimately that's what they have been mostly) I think we are in for a tough few years.

[Wd40]

This forced WFH is significant event. Most Asian managers don't trust their employees and hence do not encourage WFH. But now they have allowed it without a choice.

So I wonder what it's implications will be.

Major workforce is foreigners and many companies have an offshore-onsite mix. So now it the onsite employees WFH they are as good as offshore but at a much higher cost.

So offshoring could only increase in this situation. Your thoughts please.

[bro75]

I believe the offshore/onsite mix will remain for business continuity purposes especially now that it is proven that companies with operations at multiple sites are more able to handle unexpected events. Costs are important but the policies and responses of the government to black swan events is now more so important than mere costs.

[ProvenPracticalFlexible]

Lot of services will go bust unless saved by governments, so that will of course impact also property and banks, and of course a gig economy and non FTEs in services sectors. and all the impact on people having less money to spend (if there is anything to spend it on currently).

I still say the doomsday prophets will be wrong. Stock markets with exception of travel related have mostly bounced back already (which is actually quite crazy). I expect another drop somewhere near future (this year) when the layoffs start hitting consumer confidence more. But not worse than last round.

Business travel will be cut down somewhat initially for both fear and cost reasons, but not all. and like a miracle in 2 years the skies are full again.

It depends on how soon travel will be allowed, the signs are already there, but it takes time to get the planes up in the sky again, and even if all borders were opened and flights back, business travel and tourism will not come back that quickly. there will be an irrational fear factor impact on peoples willingness to travel.

[Max Headroom]

There are 2 reasons stock markets have bounced and neither is good.

1. There's nothing else to put your money in and at the moment cash is trash. So the least of all the evils is shares, boh pian. But I'm sure most punters are holding their nose while buying.

2. Big Tech alone now represents about 20% of all of S&P, which is due for a re-balancing. The thinking is that Tech will suffer the least of all industries during Covid, so this is where the "smart" money has gone. Followed by the lemmings.

Everyone else subsequently concludes that perhaps things aren't so bad after all, given the stock market bounce.

Watch out below.

[Wd40]

There are 2 reasons stock markets have bounced and neither is good.

1. There's nothing else to put your money in and at the moment cash is trash. So the least of all the evils is shares, boh pian. But I'm sure most punters are holding their nose while buying.

2. Big Tech alone now represents about 20% of all of S&P, which is due for a re-balancing. The thinking is that Tech will suffer the least of all industries during Covid, so this is where the "smart" money has gone. Followed by the lemmings.

Everyone else subsequently concludes that perhaps things aren't so bad after all, given the stock market bounce.

Watch out below.

The US markets are up because FED and the govt have thrown the kitchen sink at the problem. People have got more money in unemployment benefits than what they would have got, if they were working. US monetary system is completely wierd, they seem to be able to print as much money as they want without consequences atleast immediately.

But I was more curious about Singapore. Singapore's economy seems to be very much the old economy. Based on real estate, tourism, manufacturing, trade etc All are going to be hit by Covid. US atleast has tech and they have internal demand. Singapore depends on lot of external demand.