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COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

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martincymru
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COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by martincymru » Fri, 01 May 2020 2:05 pm

"Preliminary results show that the risk of infection is highest among close contacts". This is a profound statement.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -infection

Thus the chance of catching the virus outside of your "close contacts" is minimal.
//
What is the future strategy for "close contact" situations?
Safe distancing is impossible for the below list.
a. family homes
b. dormitories
c. taxis
d. transport
e. primary schools
f. prisons
g. lifts
etc.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by PNGMK » Sat, 02 May 2020 7:09 pm

Yep. BBC today has an expert basically saying 'sociological factors' are behind why different countries have such different death rates.
I not lawyer/teacher/CPA.
You've been arrested? Law Society of Singapore can provide referrals.
You want an International School job? School website or http://www.ISS.edu
Your rugrat needs a School? Avoid for profit schools
You need Tax advice? Ask a CPA
You ran away without doing NS? Shame on you!

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by musical box » Sun, 03 May 2020 11:39 am

so wearing a mask whilst walking alone slowly along the street has practically zero impact on spread

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Sun, 03 May 2020 12:14 pm

Depends on what the current rules are by the government.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by x9200 » Sun, 03 May 2020 3:01 pm

musical box wrote:
Sun, 03 May 2020 11:39 am
so wearing a mask whilst walking alone slowly along the street has practically zero impact on spread
The problem is one seldom walks alone in Singapore and more frequently one forgets to put the mask on when approaching somebody.

The current infection rate* is below 10 people a day. Not sure these are from the close contacts. If they were, shouldn't the expected rate be much higher?

*) Outside the WP population.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by martincymru » Mon, 04 May 2020 9:39 am

Early days we had focus on hand washing, surfaces and now masks, all of which are fading into the background. I believe the family situation is the main spreader.

If you live alone, walk alone + don't wear a mask & do touch surfaces you are unlikely to catch the virus. But if you live in a household with your kids, your mum and dad, maid (say 7 people in total) chances of catching from one of your "close contacts" is vastly increased.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by ProvenPracticalFlexible » Mon, 04 May 2020 11:39 am

"The problem is one seldom walks alone in Singapore and more frequently one forgets to put the mask on when approaching somebody."

I would disagree with that, lot's of empty streets currently. when walking to supermarket on my 500-2.5km walk one way (depending on which one I chose to go) I'd pass about 0-3 people on my road before I reach there, mask is usually wet and useless after that, but rules are rules.

Being in close distance (less than 2 m) for that 1-2 second one passes by is quite different than being inside a taxi for 10-30 minutes or whole day in office room etc. It is outdoors and very short time, so very unlikely to spread anything unless some spits you on the face. But even with Taxis, so far haven't seen much taxi spread one way or the other reported.

Of course different areas such as wet markets and HDB/MRT linked hawker centers are busier, there taking the mask on and off makes no sense.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by x9200 » Mon, 04 May 2020 1:14 pm

ProvenPracticalFlexible wrote:
Mon, 04 May 2020 11:39 am
"The problem is one seldom walks alone in Singapore and more frequently one forgets to put the mask on when approaching somebody."

I would disagree with that, lot's of empty streets currently. when walking to supermarket on my 500-2.5km walk one way (depending on which one I chose to go) I'd pass about 0-3 people on my road before I reach there, mask is usually wet and useless after that, but rules are rules.

Being in close distance (less than 2 m) for that 1-2 second one passes by is quite different than being inside a taxi for 10-30 minutes or whole day in office room etc. It is outdoors and very short time, so very unlikely to spread anything unless some spits you on the face. But even with Taxis, so far haven't seen much taxi spread one way or the other reported.

Of course different areas such as wet markets and HDB/MRT linked hawker centers are busier, there taking the mask on and off makes no sense.
From my observations of people "exercising" without the masks perhaps 1% of them put them back on approaching someone. Each time I leave my apartment I see maids and other people in my condo (including the lifts) having their masks down completely or with their nostrils sticking out. I saw a girl last time I walked near Bukit Gombak Stadium doing really intense exercises right in the middle of the only available passage with a few people a minute traffic, no mask on of course. Just a few examples. So while what you are saying (here and in another thread) makes sense, the bottom line is, you can not really hope for some reasonable conduct of an average Singapore resident and that's why this has to be black and white. I think we own the extension of the CB to such people who can not follow some simple instructions more than the thread of the epidemy to go out of control. This cost us some real money and many people to lose their jobs.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by ProvenPracticalFlexible » Mon, 04 May 2020 2:43 pm

Yes, and I'm not against the bit over the top rules to make it clear to everyone. But I'm pretty sure cops and courts would not catch you and penalise totally unreasonably. But can't say I have same level of trust for the citizen reporters and public shamers.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by martincymru » Tue, 05 May 2020 11:56 am

I remain unconvinced.... mask law is bad law which is worse than no law.

Measures like this, where the science is not clear cut, should be based on trusting the people to behave intelligently.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by ProvenPracticalFlexible » Wed, 06 May 2020 6:54 pm

Problem is that before science is clear cut on something takes too long time. It took quite some time to prove smoking is bad and causes cancer. There's still a lot of people claiming there's no human caused climate change etc. So most decisions are based on best assumptions and still a balanced between risk, cost, impact etc. If there was one and only one clear absolute right solution to Corona controls then life would be really easy.

The only place they've trusted people in the world is Sweden but that is a special place as there is weird behavioural DNA there that people respect others over themselves. Anyone who has driven there notices that. No aggression or road rage, people slow down and move out of your way when you get close. So I wouldn't trust any other country that much.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by martincymru » Thu, 07 May 2020 12:06 pm

ProvenPracticalFlexible: "I wouldn't trust any other country that much".

I think you mean the govt does not trust the character/behaviour of its citizens/residents to behave in an appropriate, respectful and intelligent way.

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Re: COVID-19: "risk of infection is highest among close contacts".

Post by ProvenPracticalFlexible » Thu, 07 May 2020 6:39 pm

Yes, you could interpret it that way with the addition that in most cases I would agree that the governments of various countries are correct. Maybe Japanese could be another exception.

It's more whether a large enough majority would behave responsibly.

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