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Do you think there will be more fire sale?

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abbby
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Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by abbby » Thu, 19 Mar 2020 3:13 pm

With the current situation and likely prolonging, do you feel the property prices are coming down? Expecting more people might be losing their jobs, made redundant, stock market's down, owners may be finding it hard to find tenants..

Analysts are predicting this going to be worse than SARS and the Asian Financial crisis...
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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Thu, 19 Mar 2020 9:06 pm

You mean prices returning to a semblance of sanity?

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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by Wong_Jnr » Fri, 20 Mar 2020 9:10 am

Total the opposite, property price are likely to go up.
In times of uncertainty money shifts to safer havens, e.g. gold, cash and in the cash of Singapore property.
As a large chuck of the value of a property is in the land and not the building itself and as land goes at a premium, property is seen as a safe haven. Demand for new properties is up and therefore this will drive prices up not down.

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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by Max Headroom » Fri, 20 Mar 2020 9:42 am

Cash is king at the moment. Gold has been dropping in the rush to cash, along with equity of course.

Once we turn the corner, people will pour their money back into equity, as this is where the vacuum is. Bargain-hunters will be out in force, returning some or all of Trump's bump.

Meanwhile, gold will climb to new highs, due to the money-spigots everywhere going full-bore. R.I.P. fiat.

In contrast, property prices here have been held artificially sticky, which means anybody going in, now or later, is likely to get their fingers burned, big-time.

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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by ProvenPracticalFlexible » Wed, 22 Apr 2020 12:15 pm

Share prices have actually bounced back 20-25% from the bottom in just one month. That is pretty good return for anyone who was open to by during the drop. Of course when the real economy starts really hurting there is likely to be a second drop.

Property is likely to have some firesales from people who have leveraged too much. Otherwise would expect to be very slow, people who can hold won't sell and most people will hesitate to buy. property has actually been quite stable in Singapore since 2013. So I doubt it will drop too much. If that happens, some of the Additional stamp duties could be removed. So I wouldn't expect massive property price drops.

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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by PNGMK » Thu, 23 Apr 2020 2:01 pm

Property prices here track oil (historically). That's the indicator.

https://cdn-cms.pgimgs.com/news/2015/03 ... -Index.png
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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by ProvenPracticalFlexible » Thu, 23 Apr 2020 6:08 pm

That oil price property index comparison data is a bit outdated, it ends in 2014.
Just with a quick look since than it hasn't been following oil price very well any more.

https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/housing-index
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... -data.html

WTI is down and SG property index is quite flat but still so upwards. Don't have time to count recent correlations exactly but looks quite weak. If you have paid access to that or other similar platform could compare quickly.

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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by vrock » Mon, 27 Apr 2020 10:04 pm

I think most probably yes , not just in singapore but everywhere. Just a personal opinion though. A couple friends of mine in Malaysia who work in the property industry told me that property developers in Malaysia are starting to drop their prices as much as 30-40% which is nuts. :???:

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Re: Do you think there will be more fire sale?

Post by Max Headroom » Tue, 28 Apr 2020 4:11 pm

It's not nuts, it's Corona.

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