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How long do you think COVID19 will last

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Max Headroom
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by Max Headroom » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 6:28 pm

Speaking of mutating, some ferret farm in Denmark has been found to be churning out a strain of Covid that has mutated its corona physiology, to the extent that it looks like it's going to render the better known vaccines in the pipeline at least somewhat less effective. Should this get out of hand, these vaccines could well turn out to be as good as obsolete before they're even available.

And it gets worse: evidently, this particular Covid strain has already jumped to people.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 6:42 pm

And why the hell do we still have mink farming?
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 6:48 pm

Max Headroom wrote:
Mon, 09 Nov 2020 9:35 am
I think they're not keen to remove masks any time soon, the main reason being is that once borders open up significantly, cases will be sure to rise, meaning unless we're wearing our masks, transmissions will rise commensurately.
The government is reluctant to remove mask usage for one reason only:

If at any point there's a second flare-up & masks needs to be reintroduced, the government is afraid the population won't obey the mask-up command 2nd time around due to CV-19 fatigue.

Best getting people conditioned to wearing masks non-stop instead - that's the rationale.

Infections spiked again, and the countries had to lock down once more. But by then, people had become tired and cynical about the restrictions, causing them to turn against their governments and blame their leaders for bad outcomes.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... ain-public

Is there room for change within this policy? I'm sure certain parts of outdoor mask usage could be relaxed with hardly any effect. (for instance in parks) But doesn't look like they're keen on any change.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 7:39 pm

Max Headroom wrote:Speaking of mutating, some ferret farm in Denmark has been found to be churning out a strain of Covid that has mutated its corona physiology, to the extent that it looks like it's going to render the better known vaccines in the pipeline at least somewhat less effective. Should this get out of hand, these vaccines could well turn out to be as good as obsolete before they're even available.

And it gets worse: evidently, this particular Covid strain has already jumped to people.
The Netherlands also wiped out their mink farms.

The mutation in animal hosts is similar to what is seen with Influenza, though much more severe among pigs and ducks. That’s why the influenza vaccine changes every year....

Would be interesting if COVID vaccines must also change on a regular basis...that’ll wipe out some candidates for year 2...


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 11:15 pm

BigginHill wrote:
Mon, 09 Nov 2020 6:48 pm
But doesn't look like they're keen on any change.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... ablishment

"Along with wearing masks on the dance floor, customers will have to stay 2m apart from other groups, indicated by floor markings and physical barriers. "

It truly is the New Abnormal!

But finally, some hope on the horizon...

Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Tue, 10 Nov 2020 7:38 am

The stock market likes the Pfizer news but I feel a little cynical and to hear 90% over and over... however the new Biden-Harris Covid19 board member Osterholm is a little cautious also I note....
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by kiiara.wilson » Tue, 10 Nov 2020 11:38 pm

The real question is, can you keep it down long enough to have a vaccine? Without a vaccine, we are maybe looking at something like a year. But this would mean that 60–70% of the population would have had exposure to the virus.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Wed, 11 Nov 2020 11:13 am

The current forecast is 7 years (i.e. Feb 2027) before enough of the world has had exposure (70%) to have any form of global immunity.
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Thu, 19 Nov 2020 3:54 pm

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... apt-to-new
"PM Lee also does not foresee international travel returning to normal next year: "Maybe in two years' time, it would be possible to extend in a bigger way. But that is down the road.""

"Even if there is a vaccine by the beginning of next year, it will probably be 2022 by the time it gets rolled out to a significant proportion of the population and have an impact in slowing down the spread of the disease"

It's getting clearer how we may be in for the long haul in SG.

Not entirely unlikely, that SG restrictions will last considerably longer than restrictions in US/Europe, who'll probably get the vaccine(s) quicker & generally accept a lower level, endemic type of infection rather than attempt elimination.

We could be wearing masks, doing contact tracing, restricting gatherings & managing border restrictions all the way into 2023. In fact, certain restrictions may never disappear. (face masks @ Changi etc)

Btw, very encouraging news on the vaccine front recently.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Thu, 19 Nov 2020 4:28 pm

Unfortunate but true. If my role here ends I plan to head to Australia and live a covid free lifestyle.
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Thu, 19 Nov 2020 4:33 pm

Can't say I haven't had the same thought...

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