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How long do you think COVID19 will last

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martincymru
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by martincymru » Mon, 05 Oct 2020 4:06 pm

The UK removed the majority of their restrictions in July 2020. The Case Fatality Rate % did not escalate, in fact it fell. Same for most countries so the COVID-19 crisis, as I predicted, was over by end Sept 2020.

Reference:
www.cebm.net › covid-19 › the-declining-case-fatality-...
“19 Aug 2020 - We now present data suggesting that the CFR as of the 4th of August stood at around 1.5%, having fallen from over 6% six weeks earlier”

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Fri, 09 Oct 2020 11:10 pm

Uh-oh.

https://www.cgdev.org/blog/when-will-we ... s-answered
https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/fil ... s-Full.pdf

...our modelling suggests that there is a 50 percent chance that by the end of April 2021 there will be a vaccine safe and efficacious enough to win approval from a stringent regulator; by the end of 2021, this rises to 85 percent.

We also modelled how long it would take to manufacture COVID-19 vaccines once they are approved. Our modelling suggests that it will probably take more than a year to produce enough vaccines to inoculate the world’s 50 million medical staff, and that it could be September 2023 before we have enough doses for the whole world. It is not clear that these early vaccines will be efficacious enough to end the COVID-19 crisis. The vast majority of experts we spoke with predict that first-generation vaccines will not be effective enough to end the pandemic on their own, and that it will take longer to develop vaccines that fully prevent infection

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 1:21 pm

Vaccines usually take a few years from development, clinical trial, to marketability.

Whole world is hedging bets on vaccines developed and rushed out in 9-12 months?

Good luck


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by TropicalExpat » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 3:23 pm

BBCDoc wrote:
Sat, 10 Oct 2020 1:21 pm
Vaccines usually take a few years from development, clinical trial, to marketability.

Whole world is hedging bets on vaccines developed and rushed out in 9-12 months?

Good luck


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I just don't get it. I am not an anti-vaxxer... in fact i try to get the flu shot regularly to help reduce risks to aged relatives.

But as you say 9 - 12 months ... it's crazy. I wouldn't want to be on that first batch of recipients. Even if it means I am stuck in the same place for another 12 months.
Even if they trial on a million people, that's still around 1% of the world being exposed to a new vaccine....

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 3:31 pm

martincymru wrote:The UK removed the majority of their restrictions in July 2020. The Case Fatality Rate % did not escalate, in fact it fell. Same for most countries so the COVID-19 crisis, as I predicted, was over by end Sept 2020.

Reference:
www.cebm.net › covid-19 › the-declining-case-fatality-...
“19 Aug 2020 - We now present data suggesting that the CFR as of the 4th of August stood at around 1.5%, having fallen from over 6% six weeks earlier”
Boris going to announce new restrictions since the situation is getting out of hand?

I have quite a lot of family left in the UK, it pains me to watch that shit show from a distance, but it’s something I appreciate about being in Singapore


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martincymru
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by martincymru » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 4:29 pm

World pop = 8 billion.

Anyone care to guess the numbers / %'s at point date Oct 10th 2021:-

1. how many will have had an effective vaccine ?
2. how many will have been infected with COVID-19 ?
3. Case Fatality Rate ?
4. Excess mortality (assumed resulting from COVID-19 lock-downs) ?
5. Mean age of those succumbing ?
6. % fatality rate of the under 60 age group with no underlying medical conditions such as diabetes, heart disease, respiratory disease or hypertension ?
7. Trump's magic medicine cost 3,000 USD. How many infected people will receive same treatment?

PS: point date is arbitrary, 12 months from today.

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