How long do you think COVID19 will last

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martincymru
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by martincymru » Mon, 05 Oct 2020 4:06 pm

The UK removed the majority of their restrictions in July 2020. The Case Fatality Rate % did not escalate, in fact it fell. Same for most countries so the COVID-19 crisis, as I predicted, was over by end Sept 2020.

Reference:
www.cebm.net › covid-19 › the-declining-case-fatality-...
“19 Aug 2020 - We now present data suggesting that the CFR as of the 4th of August stood at around 1.5%, having fallen from over 6% six weeks earlier”

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Fri, 09 Oct 2020 11:10 pm

Uh-oh.

https://www.cgdev.org/blog/when-will-we ... s-answered
https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/fil ... s-Full.pdf

...our modelling suggests that there is a 50 percent chance that by the end of April 2021 there will be a vaccine safe and efficacious enough to win approval from a stringent regulator; by the end of 2021, this rises to 85 percent.

We also modelled how long it would take to manufacture COVID-19 vaccines once they are approved. Our modelling suggests that it will probably take more than a year to produce enough vaccines to inoculate the world’s 50 million medical staff, and that it could be September 2023 before we have enough doses for the whole world. It is not clear that these early vaccines will be efficacious enough to end the COVID-19 crisis. The vast majority of experts we spoke with predict that first-generation vaccines will not be effective enough to end the pandemic on their own, and that it will take longer to develop vaccines that fully prevent infection

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 1:21 pm

Vaccines usually take a few years from development, clinical trial, to marketability.

Whole world is hedging bets on vaccines developed and rushed out in 9-12 months?

Good luck


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by TropicalExpat » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 3:23 pm

BBCDoc wrote:
Sat, 10 Oct 2020 1:21 pm
Vaccines usually take a few years from development, clinical trial, to marketability.

Whole world is hedging bets on vaccines developed and rushed out in 9-12 months?

Good luck


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I just don't get it. I am not an anti-vaxxer... in fact i try to get the flu shot regularly to help reduce risks to aged relatives.

But as you say 9 - 12 months ... it's crazy. I wouldn't want to be on that first batch of recipients. Even if it means I am stuck in the same place for another 12 months.
Even if they trial on a million people, that's still around 1% of the world being exposed to a new vaccine....

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 3:31 pm

martincymru wrote:The UK removed the majority of their restrictions in July 2020. The Case Fatality Rate % did not escalate, in fact it fell. Same for most countries so the COVID-19 crisis, as I predicted, was over by end Sept 2020.

Reference:
www.cebm.net › covid-19 › the-declining-case-fatality-...
“19 Aug 2020 - We now present data suggesting that the CFR as of the 4th of August stood at around 1.5%, having fallen from over 6% six weeks earlier”
Boris going to announce new restrictions since the situation is getting out of hand?

I have quite a lot of family left in the UK, it pains me to watch that shit show from a distance, but it’s something I appreciate about being in Singapore


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by martincymru » Sat, 10 Oct 2020 4:29 pm

World pop = 8 billion.

Anyone care to guess the numbers / %'s at point date Oct 10th 2021:-

1. how many will have had an effective vaccine ?
2. how many will have been infected with COVID-19 ?
3. Case Fatality Rate ?
4. Excess mortality (assumed resulting from COVID-19 lock-downs) ?
5. Mean age of those succumbing ?
6. % fatality rate of the under 60 age group with no underlying medical conditions such as diabetes, heart disease, respiratory disease or hypertension ?
7. Trump's magic medicine cost 3,000 USD. How many infected people will receive same treatment?

PS: point date is arbitrary, 12 months from today.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by Wd40 » Sat, 31 Oct 2020 11:49 pm

Wd40 wrote:
Sun, 04 Oct 2020 6:48 pm
It has been so long we had the virus, that this feels like a new normal. I am now surprised, why didnt we have a pandemic of this severity in the last 100 years? Why now? Chinese have been eating bats since ages.

The fact that we didnt have such a pandemic for 100 years and this is happened now, tells me that this is not something that we can just dismiss as something that will go away just like that. We could have waves of this. We need to watchout what happens during the peak winter of the northern hemisphere.

I think it is only around Jun 2021, we will have some idea of whether this pandemic comes back or has ended.
Well, looking at the rise in cases in Europe, it seems, all the optimism about the vaccine and virus going away has made way to more lockdowns. Its really shocking how badly the Europeans have handled it. It seems it is the holiday goers to Spain have carried the virus to the rest of Europe.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by Max Headroom » Sun, 01 Nov 2020 10:46 am

Yeah, I think you're right, WD. You can't really blame Singapore for allowing the annual CNY exodus to go ahead early this year; there was no way of knowing what we know now. But for Europe to allow the annual summer holiday cross border travel peak to go ahead as per normal by June/July/August, that was insanely stupid.

They thought they had a handle on the outbreak because their measures had had decent traction during their first outbreak. But they never factored in the weather transitioning to autumn, meaning more hours each day spent cooped up indoors. This prevents the measures from being as effective as before, ultimately resulting in the runaway train we're seeing now.

With winter just ahead, I don't see how they're going to avoid complete lockdowns yet, which, clearly, will extend well into 2021.

Beyond that? Well suffice to say there will be a fair amount of buggery.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Sun, 01 Nov 2020 11:36 am

End-2021 as the global turning point in decisive control of the virus (in developed countries) does look a bit tenuous at the moment.

Final results from vaccine trials seems to get pushed.

We still don't have any ground breaking treatments/antivirals.

Rapid accurate testing hasn't quite materialized fully either. Potentially game changing work such as COVID-19 breathalyzers is still in the research phase for the next 6-12 mths.

The whole concept of an expanding set of general travel bubbles among (near-) zero infection Asia countries hasn't happened either. The trust is not there. Let's see how SG-HK pans out. And I suppose Aus-NZ may finally happen sometime in 2021.

Locally I don't foresee any significant loosening of restrictions for another year. The strategy is to maintain most safety management restrictions as a buffer towards relaxed (mostly unilateral) border restrictions. (read: Outdoor masks probably stays for another year)

2021 will be a bumpy ride...

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Sun, 01 Nov 2020 1:52 pm

^ A bumpy and deadly ride for the Northerm Hemisphere Winter I fear.
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Sun, 08 Nov 2020 8:39 pm

BigginHill wrote:
Sun, 01 Nov 2020 11:36 am
The strategy is to maintain most safety management restrictions as a buffer towards relaxed (mostly unilateral) border restrictions. (read: Outdoor masks probably stays for another year)
Hmm, this particular trade-off doesn't appear to pan out well.

Even with an open border from select countries, inbound traffic is absolutely minute.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... strictions

Since air travel pass applications opened on Sept 1, CAAS has approved 2,613 requests to come to Singapore from Brunei, New Zealand, Vietnam, Australia and China.

Of these, 811 visitors have arrived in Singapore as at Friday - 336 from Vietnam, 232 from Brunei, 115 from New Zealand, 106 from Australia and 22 from China.


The problem, of course, is the mandatory quarantine when travellers return to their home country. (if they're even allowed to leave in the first place)

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... rder-curbs

Travellers in China were muted in their response to the lifting of Singapore travel restrictions, with many citing the need for a two-week quarantine upon their return as the main inconvenience.

We might as well relax our own internal restrictions instead.

International traffic won't pick up for a long time anyway, for reasons outside our control.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 7:04 am

@BH,

Good points. I raised that in discussion with an expert, how much revenue does the current international traffic actually bring in?

If SG focused on bringing the whole country to zero transmission whilst blocking any further incoming cases, we can actually remove the masks and open up FnB and entertainment again properly to get more of the economy going.

Once that is set up, then we should study how best to gradually increase international traffic and meaningful quarantine processes.

Right now, unless we are bringing in the fat whales that dump several million per week into the economy, we are still in a tiny ebb and flow environment with out spending.


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by Max Headroom » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 9:35 am

I think they're not keen to remove masks any time soon, the main reason being is that once borders open up significantly, cases will be sure to rise, meaning unless we're wearing our masks, transmissions will rise commensurately.

You have to have all mask measures in place if you're going to experiment with borders opening up. No masks and open borders is a recipe for disaster; before you know it, you're behind the curve, back to square 1.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 12:43 pm

@MH,

Agreed that should be the case in the absence of vaccines and strong healthcare infrastructure and incoming case management policies.

Since vaccines ARE coming and WILL be procured AND administered in the near future (albeit at different rates across countries) for both residents and incoming travellers, risk could be managed with this picture in mind.


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Mon, 09 Nov 2020 2:08 pm

It's pretty obvious we are only marginally better off than in 1918. We are basically waiting for the virii (multiple strains) to mutate out now to a less risky form as some immunity builds up.
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