How long do you think COVID19 will last

[martincymru]

stop worrying...... infection and death rates coming down in vast majority of countries..... all countries following same trajectory, irrespective of lock-downs...... by Sept 2020 it will all be history..... IMHO

[cookie_expat]

Hopefully by this year we won't be hearing any more news about this virus!

[Sirmassimo]

Personally I think we will feel the consequences of COVID 19 far longer than expected. However, that doesn't mean that there will be an endless lockdown, the world will just learn to live with it. The borders are slowly reopening and even travel is becoming possible again.
I found an interesting article the other day, where some travel experts share their thoughts on the future of travel after COVID 19: https://liveyourtravel.com/future-of-travel/

[BBCDoc]

Hopefully by this year we won't be hearing any more news about this virus!

Dream on...vaccine will be another 15 months at least...I’d be concerned to take the first one to hit the market...


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[BigginHill]

Frankly, I'm assuming we won't find a vaccine, or at least an effective one. I actually think many governments already suspects this, however, they're just afraid to speculate out loud to avoid wide spread unrest.

No good putting your life on hold waiting indefinitely.

Better to assume we won't find one & be pleasantly surprised if we do.

One way or another, we'll be riding out this virus for the next 2-3 years.

(just the same, I'll be revisiting martincymru's prognosis in 3 months time)

[tt1973]

Another year or two perhaps, US and many countries are still experiencing major outbreaks and breaking records every week.

I wouldn't want to be the first the take the vaccine too. Who knows what kind of side effects it may bring

[PNGMK]

We are in a new normal. There's no point looking backwards.

[BigginHill]

stop worrying...... infection and death rates coming down in vast majority of countries..... all countries following same trajectory, irrespective of lock-downs...... by Sept 2020 it will all be history..... IMHO

[martincymru]

To be held accountable for past decisions/actions is a sobering thought. I was dreading this but kind of expecting !

Here goes.......

Let's start at the beginning.........

We have lived with pathogens since time began..... so COVID virus is not novel...... it's part of the same family that causes the common cold. The virus is not alive and thus not capable of “thinking” so the trajectory is therefore predictable.

Early in the pandemic (1st Q 2020) much higher numbers had been infected than realised due to asymptomatic and undiagnosed cases. Let’s put an arbitrary number of 10%. I “thought” (again no scientific basis except being a well-informed layman) that said 10% would increase exponentially to 30% by Sept 2020.

My supposition was 20% of the population will never be infected due to some in-built immunity.

So 30% + 20% = 50% infected or immune by declared date, 30 Sept 2020.

Herd immunity is now starting to bite; the virus is running out of hosts in many countries.

In parallel, due to public awareness, it was inevitable that some form of personal withdrawal, people to people was going to take place. Combined with treatment improvements the fatality rate per infection (“IFR”) is now settling around the 0.2 - 0.4 %.

Singapore had 10 infections yesterday and no deaths. The crisis is over in Singapore.

“stop worrying...... infection and death rates coming down in vast majority of countries..... all countries following same trajectory, irrespective of lock-downs...... by Sept 2020 it will all be history..... IMHO”

We need to learn to live without fear aka stop worrying. UK chancellor concurs:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-12080974

Was I correct that “infection and death rates coming down in vast majority of countries.......” ? I believe this statement (as of 03 Oct 2020) is increasingly supported by scientists.

Due to “test more, find more” I am not discussing testing in this post.

I maintain my further statement is correct: “all countries following same trajectory, irrespective of lock-downs....”. (In context: I was, still am, against blanket lock-downs, more harm than good, see other posts).

“by Sept 2020 it will all be history” is open to question. Nevertheless I defend this statement on basis that the death rate is so low that this virus should be furloughed as just another historical pathogen of low / moderate health impact.

Since we are on subject of predictions, the vaccine(s) will be too late for most, the virus will have practically died out naturally by then.

[BigginHill]

Three comments.

1. So far there's 1m reported global fatalities. I read they're projecting another 1m before fatalities are reduced to a rate similar to the flu, so I wouldn't say it's "over". But I do agree the planet generally won't see a return to the initial shock, like we saw in Italy & UK in March-April when things went completely out of control in elderly care etc.

2. At the moment, I suspect the planet is far from meaningful herd immunity. In Singapore specifically, I reckon outside of the dorms, maybe 1% of the community population has been infected. (3300 reported cases in the community & let's say a dark number of 20 x times unreported infections) Worldwide, places like central NYC, Stockholm & Mumbai slums are probably experiencing some level of herd immunity by now, but there's still plenty of "dry tinder" damage to be done on the planet. (Latam, Africa etc)

3. We missed the opportunity for global eradication of COVID-19 at source, due to China's inability to close a wet market. So now it's out there & herd immunity or indefinite isolation is our only approach. By social distancing we're delaying herd immunity. Getting a vaccine will accelerate the process, without killing vulnerable people. Even a partially effective vaccine is very valuable, if 1) it makes infected people less ill, 2) subsequent reinfections likely to be less severe. So after innoculating a larger part of the global population, eventually COVID-19 will just turn into another "flu". I sure hope it plays out that way & we won't need our children & grandchildren to wear bloody face masks or teach them Safe Entry protocols before they learn to walk.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5

I believe the more pertinent question is, when will the new abnormal end.

When will world borders reopen for general unquarantined, untested, unrestricted travel. When are face masks no longer required outside an infectious diseases ward. When can we shop at a supermarket without handing over our passport details. When can we resume regular social relations. That kind of stuff.

Even when vaccines are rolled out (with +190 candidates, at least a handful should be successful), governments may still be reluctant opening up fast. Will Singapore's border be generally closed until 2022?

We'll see how this unfolds over the coming months & years.

[BBCDoc]

Ongoing unresolved issues:
1. Is natural immunity durable?
2. Is vaccine induced immunity durable?

There is still mixed data about waning antibodies = infected people can become susceptible again. If true, herd immunity does not come naturally and will be dependent on the vaccine.

If you look at the total number of people infected, that still makes up a fractional % in majority of countries, so the virus has a huge potential to burn through again.

Mortality may be Low, there is so much complexity about the data, people still can’t explain if due to mutant strain or due to comorbidities (obesity being a significant factor).

Let’s hope nature doesn’t brew up a new SARS virus that uses antibody dependent enhancement like dengue - second exposure to a different strain being worse because prior antibodies help it infect other cells.


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[BigginHill]

Yep - we hardly know anything solid about COVID-19 & immunity.

I'm cautiously optimistic we're not facing a true nightmare scenario of zero immunity & broadly ineffective vaccines. That would be seriously bad news. Apparently SARS-CoV-2 mutates less than the flu, so less of a moving target for vaccine development. Also the tiny handful of confirmed reinfected cases all seem to report less severe symptoms (if any at all) the 2nd time around.

I guess we'll know much more in the coming years.

Also our 1st gen vaccines are likely to be less effective than subsequent ones.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... nds-421122

Vaccines could get more durable over time. “The way we’ve seen other vaccines historically has been that you get proof of concept … that one can work and then you’ll get gradual improvements,” says Kinch, who thinks we’ll see mediocre vaccines in the near future and a much better one in three to five years.

I think a 5 year time frame to put the constant worries and restrictions of COVID-19 conclusively behind us seems plausible. We'll see.

We'll be back to normal when articles like these will again be considered absurd...

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... dining-out

(government agents roaming restaurants, monitoring and fining grown adults for inter-dessert/digestif mask non-compliance)

[martincymru]

The Case Fatality Rate % is now low due to more effective treatment and the very dry tinder (old and/or infirm) already succumbing.

“Case” is defined as an infected person requiring treatment not the Infection Fatality Rate. This is a more accurate measure of the crisis due to the vagaries of testing (volume / false positives etc.).

At what % level (Case Fatality Rate) would you consider this fear pandemic to be “over” or tolerable and thus society must move back to normal (world travel, no face masks etc.)?

The words “low” and “over”, I concede, lack objectivity.

My view is that the crisis is past since both the numbers requiring hospital treatment and the Case Fatality Rate is at a low level.

If we have broadly ineffective vaccines and/or distribution problems (a real possibility IMHO) then the world has no choice but to live with this virus.

I digress, hammer blow lock-downs are unscientific, hurt many innocent people, create collateral damage, long term health impact, political bullying, society friction etc. Ok ban large events but don’t force me to wear a mask on the beach!

[Wd40]

It has been so long we had the virus, that this feels like a new normal. I am now surprised, why didnt we have a pandemic of this severity in the last 100 years? Why now? Chinese have been eating bats since ages.

The fact that we didnt have such a pandemic for 100 years and this is happened now, tells me that this is not something that we can just dismiss as something that will go away just like that. We could have waves of this. We need to watchout what happens during the peak winter of the northern hemisphere.

I think it is only around Jun 2021, we will have some idea of whether this pandemic comes back or has ended.

[BigginHill]

At what % level (Case Fatality Rate) would you consider this fear pandemic to be “over” or tolerable and thus society must move back to normal (world travel, no face masks etc.)?

I personally think COVID-19 is "over" when we can remove +90% of restrictions without fatality rates escalating.

Can we do this now? I'm sure we can get rid of several overbearing restrictions with minor effect (SafeEntry for transient visits, outdoor masks, border closures to several low risk countries etc), but I definitely wouldn't bring back any large gatherings or reopen nightlife fully.

Anyway, +90% reopening can happen through potent antivirals alone, which we're in a good position to develop over the coming years. (case in point: HIV, which is a far more virulent, nasty, permanent infection)

Currently, I think life is back at somewhere between 25-50% of normal, but that's a massively subjective metric of course.