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How long do you think COVID19 will last

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Tue, 14 Apr 2020 8:13 pm

SG Tuas factories and construction are dependent on FWs. Somewhat impossible to operate if you cut off traffic from JB.

Would be interesting to see a global rethink on supply chain - will people tolerate higher pricing with manufacturing moving out of China.

Also interesting if WHO revises its criteria for calling a Pandemic. This time it was far too late and was not assertive/aggressive enough in implementation. When the next virus comes, are we going to wait as Long to allow it to spread as far and wide?


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by veralia » Thu, 16 Apr 2020 8:34 pm

It will last for a long time! As long as there isn't a vaccine or cure for the virus, there can be hidden carriers of the virus going around and infecting others. It can end entirely, like how SARS did, but the government needs to put in drastic measures like testing the entire population, treat and quarantine those who have the virus, and make sure our country is closed to foreign visitors till a cure is found. But, given how dependent Singapore is on foreign trade and tourism, I am not sure how long the government is willing to keep our economy closed. It's a very tricky situation since they have to balance economic benefit (opening up the country for foreign visitors) and the well-being of the local population (health and thus productivity) and some economic costs too (if a surge in infection rate results from re-opening borders, the gvt will have to spend a lot of resources on tackling this issue again). Thus, all in all, the COVID-19 situation is gonna be here for a long time!

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Thu, 16 Apr 2020 9:14 pm

Unless Singapore can somehow develop herd immunity.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Thu, 16 Apr 2020 11:41 pm

While situation makes me think of yellow fever and smallpox.

People receiving YF vaccine receive a certificate, indicating lifelong antibody protection. Kind of a passport in some countries.

When I took the smallpox vaccine years ago (working on my PhD), I do recall signing a document that says in the event of an outbreak, I would be called upon to serve civic duty.


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Fri, 17 Apr 2020 11:41 am

Speaking of which, it's pretty darned old but here is my Shot Record upon entering the US Army in '65.
Inside are chops for Typhus, Polio, Flu, TB, Smallpox, Typhoid, Tetanus & Yellow Fever
2020-04-17 11.35.54.jpg

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Sat, 18 Apr 2020 11:52 am

That is really cool! Wish I had a proper record


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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by martincymru » Sat, 18 Apr 2020 2:09 pm

Let's assume the trigger point for the CB was the predicted 2% death rate from COVID-19 here in Sg.

But the actual death rate (due to many more having been infected & recovered that we realised a month ago) is actually only 0.5%. The lock-down is thus losing credibility.

My Opinion: minor and moderate measures can be removed immediately, big ticket items remain.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Sat, 18 Apr 2020 2:35 pm

BBCDoc, I thought you might appreciate that.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Thu, 11 Jun 2020 11:46 pm

Interesting to revisit these perspectives 2 months later.

-> Actively inducing herd immunity has been completely abandoned as a strategy. (no country ended up having the stomach for it & all countries seem to plan for the existence of a future vaccine)

-> NZ succeeded eradicating the virus. TW looks pretty close to do the same.

-> If SG never needed to reopen their borders, I'm sure we could attain eradication as well. But, as several people commented, SG shutting out the rest of the world is near impossible.

So what exactly is the overall global exit strategy for this thing.

1. Wait for a vaccine for an undetermined amount of time (a vaccine which may not be fully effective or even exist), during which we apply a restricted style of living

2. Or accept an endemic low-level virus forever, tempered by effective antivirals

3. Or eradicate the virus in increasingly larger bubbles of countries using increasingly effective testing

Something like that?

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by bgd » Fri, 12 Jun 2020 10:08 am

Combinations of 2 and 3 I would say. Economic hardship will force countries to take a pragmatic approach.
1 is too uncertain. We still don't have an HIV vaccine.

Aust and NZ are talking about a travel bubble and some EUR countries have already started. I do note that Finland has excluded Sweden from its bubble, so much for the herd immunity approach.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Fri, 12 Jun 2020 10:27 am

Biggin - I think Singapore is aiming for eradication. For a long time we will have a two part world, travel bubbles between Covid19 free countries (or countries that trust each other not to lie like China) and then the rest (like the Americas) where travel in or out will be gruesome, risk and require quarantine.
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:16 am

PNGMK wrote:
Fri, 12 Jun 2020 10:27 am
Biggin - I think Singapore is aiming for eradication.
That would definitely be a bold, optimal strategy - one which I think everyone would support.

Much better to eradicate and lift all internal restrictions 100%, just like NZ did, instead of keeping everyone in this restricted, dreary uncertain limbo of "low number of infections" indefinitely.

Eradication would allow us to focus all our energy on managing the external factors. (easier said than done of course)

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:20 am

BigginHill wrote:
Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:16 am
PNGMK wrote:
Fri, 12 Jun 2020 10:27 am
Biggin - I think Singapore is aiming for eradication.
That would definitely be a bold, optimal strategy - one which I think everyone would support.

Much better to eradicate and lift all internal restrictions 100%, just like NZ did, instead of keeping everyone in this restricted, dreary uncertain limbo of "low number of infections" indefinitely.

Eradication would allow us to focus all our energy on managing the external factors. (easier said than done of course)
The pappies won't say it (in case they can't get there) but I cannot see any other logical reason for the extreme lockdown period and huge isolation camps they are building.
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BigginHill » Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:24 am

PNGMK wrote:
Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:20 am
but I cannot see any other logical reason for the extreme lockdown period and huge isolation camps they are building.
My thoughts exactly - total 12 weeks of lock-down, much longer than many countries in Europe.

Also SG's borders are easier to control than Europe's.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:57 am

BigginHill wrote:
Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:24 am
PNGMK wrote:
Fri, 12 Jun 2020 11:20 am
but I cannot see any other logical reason for the extreme lockdown period and huge isolation camps they are building.
My thoughts exactly - total 12 weeks of lock-down, much longer than many countries in Europe.

Also SG's borders are easier to control than Europe's.
We are within a gnat's hair of having white vans pulling people into detention camps I fear if the economic damage continues.
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