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PR approval chance in 2020

Relocating, travelling or planning to make Singapore home? Discuss the criterias, passes or visa that is required.
TropicalExpat
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by TropicalExpat » Wed, 08 Jul 2020 7:46 am

LukaD wrote:
Wed, 08 Jul 2020 12:36 am
Hello everyone,

I know that our chance is low mainly due to age, income and ethnicity. Any chance having 3 young boys help (ages 4, 2 and 1)?

Age:42
Gender:M
Status: Married
Nationality: Filipino
Religion: Catholic
Education: Bachelors Degree - Engineering
Job: Senior Lead Engineer/Manager,Industry - Healthcare under Goverment
No of Years in SG: 13
Salary: 100k plus ave 3 months bonus
Pass: EP

Wife and kids are DP
Wife Age: 33
With bachelors degree
Years in Sg : 7 yrs
Salary : 55k plus 1 month bonus
Your salary is too low. Some here say 7k is the benchmark. I prefer to think of 10k as I know people above 10k who haven't been approved.
With regards to Nationality, from what i've read here, I think race is a more important factor. Are you maybe Chinese Filipinos?
Finally, make sure you add you kids to the application. If you avoid putting them on, you will definitely get rejected.

Good luck to you!

samv1
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by samv1 » Wed, 08 Jul 2020 10:58 am

Hi All,

I want to check the chances of my PR appeal status.
ME:
Age : 36
Race : Indian
Marital Status : Married
Education : Bachelors degree
Job : Cybersecurity Engineer
Length of stay in SG: 9 years +
Salary :100k+
Pass : EP
F

Wife:
Age : 32
Race : Indian
Marital Status : Married
Education : Bachelors degree
Presently studying PDECCE (WSQ Professional Diploma in Early Childhood Care & Education) which will finish in 3 months
Job : Kindergarten teacher
Length of stay in SG: 8 years +
Salary :24k+
Pass : DP

Children:
Girl: Studying in International School Singapore
Boy: Born in Singapore and studying in Kindergarten

Fourth time to apply in Jun 2019, rejected in Jan 2020. Have appealed first time in March 2020 which is still pending.
I had appealed as my salary had increased from 80+K to 100+ K.
Can someone enlighten on the chances of getting PR appeal approved?

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singaporeflyer
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by singaporeflyer » Wed, 08 Jul 2020 11:06 am

samv1 wrote:
Wed, 08 Jul 2020 10:58 am
Hi All,

I want to check the chances of my PR appeal status.
ME:
Age : 36
Race : Indian
Marital Status : Married
Education : Bachelors degree
Job : Cybersecurity Engineer
Length of stay in SG: 9 years +
Salary :100k+
Pass : EP
F

Wife:
Age : 32
Race : Indian
Marital Status : Married
Education : Bachelors degree
Presently studying PDECCE (WSQ Professional Diploma in Early Childhood Care & Education) which will finish in 3 months
Job : Kindergarten teacher
Length of stay in SG: 8 years +
Salary :24k+
Pass : DP

Children:
Girl: Studying in International School Singapore
Boy: Born in Singapore and studying in Kindergarten

Fourth time to apply in Jun 2019, rejected in Jan 2020. Have appealed first time in March 2020 which is still pending.
I had appealed as my salary had increased from 80+K to 100+ K.
Can someone enlighten on the chances of getting PR appeal approved?
May be around 20-25% chance. But dont have too high hopes

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PNGMK
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by PNGMK » Wed, 08 Jul 2020 12:37 pm

more like 0.2 to 0.25% chance. There are probably 100,000 PR applicants of India race per year and I'd say about 0.2% get in (200).
I not lawyer/teacher/CPA.
You've been arrested? Law Society of Singapore can provide referrals.
You want an International School job? School website or http://www.ISS.edu
Your rugrat needs a School? Avoid for profit schools
You need Tax advice? Ask a CPA
You ran away without doing NS? Shame on you!

srk03
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by srk03 » Thu, 09 Jul 2020 2:23 am

@PNGMK I would really like to know the basis of these numbers you posted? or is it just what you rather feel?
Even if we take last years 32k granted applications numbers, here's more realistic breakdown:

Note: I have considered 100% of the eligible non-resident population is putting up for PR application and based on 2018-2019 stats available:

Total PR granted 2018-19 32000
  • Non-resident in Singapore 1,600,000 Applications Success-rate Granted PR Per-Year
    EP 11(%) 176000 not known
    S-pass 12(%) 192000 not known
    non-singaporean spouse 8600 49% 4200
    Total eligible to apply PR 376600
    Remaining 27800
Considering high birth rate amongst Singaporean Indian (second to Malay), even if ICA approves 6% Indian applications (compared to 9% Singapore Indian population)----------------------1668 (Per Year)

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PNGMK
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by PNGMK » Thu, 09 Jul 2020 8:50 am

yes your math is correct IMO - it's a single digit % of the total approvals and probably lower than 6% I suspect, (much worse for "others'). So you're looking at ~1,500 India applicants approved and of those a significant chunk are reserved for rocket scientists and complete families with cannon fodder (male children) and hi-pot candidates from 2019 and "invited" applicants and investor applicants (they all take up the same bucket WRT race).. It's probably not 100,000 Indian applicants per year but 30,000 is not impossible to imagine so 5% on a probability basis without accounting for the various weighting factors BUT.... we know there are repeated application failures so something is pulling the numbers down... what it is I don't know but I would still contend you're at a chance of less than 1% in current climate. Also I don't think the approval rate is consistent through the months. I used to think it's a moving or sliding window but I now think it's more like a batch or gated process where after some statistical analysis (probably birth/death and arrival rates with some political input) every few months some high up says "OK - you can let in 100 Indians, 10 others and as many pre approved Chinese as you can find" and some gofer runs out and posts off approval letters to the top India applicants 100 in the pile. The trick is to get towards the top of that pile and ICA make it very hard to work out the factors for that... (to avoid people gaming the system).
I not lawyer/teacher/CPA.
You've been arrested? Law Society of Singapore can provide referrals.
You want an International School job? School website or http://www.ISS.edu
Your rugrat needs a School? Avoid for profit schools
You need Tax advice? Ask a CPA
You ran away without doing NS? Shame on you!

Myasis Dragon
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by Myasis Dragon » Thu, 09 Jul 2020 9:25 am

PNGMK wrote:
Thu, 09 Jul 2020 8:50 am
yes your math is correct IMO - it's a single digit % of the total approvals and probably lower than 6% I suspect, (much worse for "others'). So you're looking at ~1,500 India applicants approved and of those a significant chunk are reserved for rocket scientists and complete families with cannon fodder (male children) and hi-pot candidates from 2019 and "invited" applicants and investor applicants (they all take up the same bucket WRT race).. It's probably not 100,000 Indian applicants per year but 30,000 is not impossible to imagine so 5% on a probability basis without accounting for the various weighting factors BUT.... we know there are repeated application failures so something is pulling the numbers down... what it is I don't know but I would still contend you're at a chance of less than 1% in current climate. Also I don't think the approval rate is consistent through the months. I used to think it's a moving or sliding window but I now think it's more like a batch or gated process where after some statistical analysis (probably birth/death and arrival rates with some political input) every few months some high up says "OK - you can let in 100 Indians, 10 others and as many pre approved Chinese as you can find" and some gofer runs out and posts off approval letters to the top India applicants 100 in the pile. The trick is to get towards the top of that pile and ICA make it very hard to work out the factors for that... (to avoid people gaming the system).
An excellent analysis of how things probably work. On the bottom, a weighted system that arranges applicants by score from 0 to 100. On the top, a gated strategy that looks at population stats, employment by industry, etc, and says, "Give us XXX of race YYY."

srk03
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by srk03 » Thu, 09 Jul 2020 11:11 am

PNGMK wrote:
Thu, 09 Jul 2020 8:50 am
yes your math is correct IMO - it's a single digit % of the total approvals and probably lower than 6% I suspect, (much worse for "others'). So you're looking at ~1,500 India applicants approved and of those a significant chunk are reserved for rocket scientists and complete families with cannon fodder (male children) and hi-pot candidates from 2019 and "invited" applicants and investor applicants (they all take up the same bucket WRT race).. It's probably not 100,000 Indian applicants per year but 30,000 is not impossible to imagine so 5% on a probability basis without accounting for the various weighting factors BUT.... we know there are repeated application failures so something is pulling the numbers down... what it is I don't know but I would still contend you're at a chance of less than 1% in current climate. Also I don't think the approval rate is consistent through the months. I used to think it's a moving or sliding window but I now think it's more like a batch or gated process where after some statistical analysis (probably birth/death and arrival rates with some political input) every few months some high up says "OK - you can let in 100 Indians, 10 others and as many pre approved Chinese as you can find" and some gofer runs out and posts off approval letters to the top India applicants 100 in the pile. The trick is to get towards the top of that pile and ICA make it very hard to work out the factors for that... (to avoid people gaming the system).
I agree that ICA has some maths to put applications in preferential order and they only stick with the top. few obvious ones would be, age (around 30s), Niche skills, better salary (200k++), at least one kid (male preferred), local uni (grad or post-grad), and a long stay in sg(5 years+). Hardly any application would tick on all these points at once, hence always the chances are lower.
P.S. Malay Chinese are not part of this category of application. they get approved fast (most application around 26/27) mostly to balance the aging Chinese population in Singapore.
Last edited by srk03 on Thu, 09 Jul 2020 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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singaporeflyer
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by singaporeflyer » Thu, 09 Jul 2020 11:14 am

srk03 wrote:
Thu, 09 Jul 2020 11:11 am
PNGMK wrote:
Thu, 09 Jul 2020 8:50 am
yes your math is correct IMO - it's a single digit % of the total approvals and probably lower than 6% I suspect, (much worse for "others'). So you're looking at ~1,500 India applicants approved and of those a significant chunk are reserved for rocket scientists and complete families with cannon fodder (male children) and hi-pot candidates from 2019 and "invited" applicants and investor applicants (they all take up the same bucket WRT race).. It's probably not 100,000 Indian applicants per year but 30,000 is not impossible to imagine so 5% on a probability basis without accounting for the various weighting factors BUT.... we know there are repeated application failures so something is pulling the numbers down... what it is I don't know but I would still contend you're at a chance of less than 1% in current climate. Also I don't think the approval rate is consistent through the months. I used to think it's a moving or sliding window but I now think it's more like a batch or gated process where after some statistical analysis (probably birth/death and arrival rates with some political input) every few months some high up says "OK - you can let in 100 Indians, 10 others and as many pre approved Chinese as you can find" and some gofer runs out and posts off approval letters to the top India applicants 100 in the pile. The trick is to get towards the top of that pile and ICA make it very hard to work out the factors for that... (to avoid people gaming the system).
I agree that ICA has some maths to put applications in preferential order and they only stick with the top. few obvious ones would be, age (around 30s), Niche skills, better salary (200k++), at least one kid (male preferred), local uni (grad or post-grad), and a long stay in sg(5 years+). Hardly any application would tick on all these points at once, hence always the chances are lower.
Decent salary is enough. It does not mean one should earn 200K+ and I they may look at if you are applying as a family and if you have lived here as a family for long enough and so it wont have things like atleast one kid, etc in the criteria

Dlsm1991
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by Dlsm1991 » Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:35 pm

Hi,

If anyone can help if i have chance to apply for PR:

Nationality: Indonesian
Gender: Female
Age : 29
Education : Law degree from Indonesian University
Last position held : Sr Recruiter
Annual salary: $46K
Working and living in SG for 2 years
Married to Singaporean
Just gave birth to a singaporean baby March 2020

Thanks in advance!

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singaporeflyer
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by singaporeflyer » Sat, 11 Jul 2020 12:54 am

Dlsm1991 wrote:
Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:35 pm
Hi,

If anyone can help if i have chance to apply for PR:

Nationality: Indonesian
Gender: Female
Age : 29
Education : Law degree from Indonesian University
Last position held : Sr Recruiter
Annual salary: $46K
Working and living in SG for 2 years
Married to Singaporean
Just gave birth to a singaporean baby March 2020

Thanks in advance!
What is your spouse salary? How long are you married?

Once after 2 years of marriage and if sponsored by SC, it should be OK

Dlsm1991
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by Dlsm1991 » Sat, 11 Jul 2020 4:46 am

singaporeflyer wrote:
Sat, 11 Jul 2020 12:54 am
Dlsm1991 wrote:
Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:35 pm
Hi,

If anyone can help if i have chance to apply for PR:

Nationality: Indonesian
Gender: Female
Age : 29
Education : Law degree from Indonesian University
Last position held : Sr Recruiter
Annual salary: $46K
Working and living in SG for 2 years
Married to Singaporean
Just gave birth to a singaporean baby March 2020

Thanks in advance!
What is your spouse salary? How long are you married?

Once after 2 years of marriage and if sponsored by SC, it should be OK
Additional info:
Husband's occulation: NUS employee with monthly salary of $4.1K
Been married for 2.5 years
We own resale HDB for 2 years
Unfortunately I just got retrenched this month but employer is willing to produce employment history letter, I was promoted to supervisor level and got a salary raise once

Thank you!!

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singaporeflyer
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by singaporeflyer » Sat, 11 Jul 2020 10:17 am

Dlsm1991 wrote:
Sat, 11 Jul 2020 4:46 am
singaporeflyer wrote:
Sat, 11 Jul 2020 12:54 am
Dlsm1991 wrote:
Fri, 10 Jul 2020 11:35 pm
Hi,

If anyone can help if i have chance to apply for PR:

Nationality: Indonesian
Gender: Female
Age : 29
Education : Law degree from Indonesian University
Last position held : Sr Recruiter
Annual salary: $46K
Working and living in SG for 2 years
Married to Singaporean
Just gave birth to a singaporean baby March 2020

Thanks in advance!
What is your spouse salary? How long are you married?

Once after 2 years of marriage and if sponsored by SC, it should be OK
Additional info:
Husband's occulation: NUS employee with monthly salary of $4.1K
Been married for 2.5 years
We own resale HDB for 2 years
Unfortunately I just got retrenched this month but employer is willing to produce employment history letter, I was promoted to supervisor level and got a salary raise once

Thank you!!
It should be Ok and you may be able to get it.

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PNGMK
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by PNGMK » Sat, 11 Jul 2020 11:12 am

All you prospective SC and PR applicants need to take a deep breath and wait. ICA will be waiting for new direction from the ministry/ies who are a little nervous about the GE2020 results which put the anti migration party WP as the largest block ever to oppose the PAP.
I not lawyer/teacher/CPA.
You've been arrested? Law Society of Singapore can provide referrals.
You want an International School job? School website or http://www.ISS.edu
Your rugrat needs a School? Avoid for profit schools
You need Tax advice? Ask a CPA
You ran away without doing NS? Shame on you!

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jamie9vardy
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Re: PR approval chance in 2020

Post by jamie9vardy » Sat, 11 Jul 2020 11:29 am

Let’s see if we will go back to the aftermath of the ‘watershed’ 2011 general elections.

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