Run-of-the-mill PR chance thread

[YoungAndBroke]

Hi,

Please don't mind the username as I've registered to this forum a few years back when I was young and broke. I am now a bit older and a bit less broke.

Basic profile:
Nationality/Race: Caucasian, Canadian (born in Russia)
Age: 30
Salary: 9k
Occupation: IT finance at foreign bank (3yrs + work in SG under EP)
Marital Status: Married
Spouse: Taiwanese, previously worked in Singapore (2yrs, WP, S-pass), Bachelors degree, now on dependant pass so can hopefully incubate a male baby

Other factors: Family been here since about 2009, parents and two younger brothers all PR for 7+ years. Middle brother is in NS at the moment (first ang moh nurse in Singapore? He told me he saw one already though...), he is planning to apply for citizenship shortly after NS. Technically, I could have been included in the PR application under my father, but I was going to school overseas at the time and knew nothing about Singapore. I ended up dropping my degree overseas and coming to Singapore to study and get my Bachelors (not a local uni but a private university). I then moved to Taiwan as it was difficult to find a job, got married, landed a job in SG and got a little over 3 years working experience under my belt. If ICA wants to dig really deep, they can probably trace my "stay" in Singapore for a full decade by now, nothing illegal just a lot of visits and a student pass as well as my work experience.

In all honesty, I think my trump card is the family ties as I know my brothers will become Singapore citizens as they left Canada at a pretty young age. Would I eventually give up my Canadian passport? Yes. I expect an initial rejection, and plan to apply again in about 3 years, with a baby boy (or girl I guess). I guess my question is, do you see any red flags in my profile, or have suggestions as to how to improve my PR chances?

Thanks guys!

[YoungAndBroke]

FYI sorry if the numbers don't exactly add up, but I was studying overseas and under 21 when my father applied for PR for the rest of the family. So they might have been here even longer, 2007 ish and applied for PR even sooner than I initially thought.

[PNGMK]

Very low chance. The problem is the race bucket you're in only has a few hundred successful applications per year (our of the 35,000 per year) as you're "caucasian". However you do rate well in that race bucket due to age and marital status.

[YoungAndBroke]

Thanks.

Let’s hope there is somewhat of a ratio balance with significantly less Caucasian applicants overall. Either way I’m quite stubborn to stay here, even if it means penny pinching on an EP.

On another note, does it really matter what time of the year you submit the application? I assume it’s all anecdotal pseudoscience, but that’s all we got!

[PNGMK]

Unfortunately I think the 'others' bucket (which is where Caucasians end up) is heavily over-subscribed. You can look up the data online - there is a yearly paper paper published which is available from https://www.population.sg/ - saying that I can't find data on how many PR's were approved in 2018.

The basic issue is that "others" historically is 2% or so - and that ratio is not allowed to change so that means 2% of new PR's max can be "others".

[YoungAndBroke]

Thanks.

It’s not exactly a simple 1:1 when matching population demographics to accepted PR demographics. There are citizen growth trends, PR turnover as well as other factors. Although it’s probably still a fair estimate.

For anyone interested, “Others” population was about 3% (2015). PR acceptance for 2017 was approx 32k with 8% coming from non-Asia countries (no race breakdown though). YoY growth for PR population was negative between 2017-2018. I think we could see a very slow but steady increase overall in PR approvals if we continue on the current trend of citizen population growth rates relative to the rest of the population.

Some references:
https://www.tablebuilder.singstat.gov.s ... efId=14912

https://www...com/download/singapo ... trends.PDF (bit old)

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/si ... t-10763132

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra ... _Singapore

[PNGMK]

Others are have a pretty good TFR though - they are not a naturally declining race like Chinese. There is no 'replacement' quota which accounts for the massive Chinese intake (and to some extent Indian). Also there is a problem where flips etc are now being put in the 'others' bucket after the Malays quite rightly protested at flips being graded as Malays. So even if the pop'n doubles (which the white paper said it would) then you're not going to see over 2%+ per year PR candidates as "others" IMO .

[YoungAndBroke]

Sorry for the delay in updating. Got this approved 12 months after submission (submitted end of august 2020). Salary was slightly higher, also waited to have a baby girl. I think the family ties played an important role. I even tried timing it with the covid dip, think the quota was slightly higher that year with foreigners running off including some PRs.

[malcontent]

Congrats!