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Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

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dynoto
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Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby dynoto » Mon, 29 Aug 2016 6:38 pm

I found this reading awhile ago, when looking for some data for PR application that i can derive and crunch.
http://www.nptd.gov.sg/Portals/0/Homepa ... f-2015.pdf

I'm not sure when the next report will be released, though from what it seems is every 5 years (latest i could find is 2010)

i'll just leave it here to see if anybody would found it useful. For me personally, it did tell a few things though i'm not sure if my conclusion is correct.

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Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby jamie9vardy » Mon, 29 Aug 2016 7:41 pm

No, it's not every 5 years. It's an annual publication

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/News

The past issues were published in September so we should expect to see the current edition in a month or two.

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dynoto
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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby dynoto » Mon, 29 Aug 2016 10:40 pm

jamie9vardy wrote:No, it's not every 5 years. It's an annual publication

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/News

The past issues were published in September so we should expect to see the current edition in a month or two.


ah thanks!

actually the part of PR -> Citizen numbers that doesn't really seem add up.
according to statistics as per '15 ... on average
- 30k PRs and
- 20k Citizenship are granted per year

How does they maintain the number of 527.7k for PRs as there will always be 10k of surplus.
does that mean we have around 10k people had their PRs revoked / not renewed every year?

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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby sundaymorningstaple » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 12:10 am

At least.

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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby taxico » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 12:18 am

FWIW: the number i remembered was, on average, 2% of REP applications were rejected. this was 5 or 6 ago...? so that number may have gone up/down...

that number excludes (real) revoked SPRs... crime, false declaration, etc.
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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby x9200 » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 6:41 am

dynoto wrote:actually the part of PR -> Citizen numbers that doesn't really seem add up.
according to statistics as per '15 ... on average
- 30k PRs and
- 20k Citizenship are granted per year

How does they maintain the number of 527.7k for PRs as there will always be 10k of surplus.
does that mean we have around 10k people had their PRs revoked / not renewed every year?

10k is a small No, ca 2% of the PR population. They are foreigners so their migration mobility is much higher than for the SC.

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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby BBCWatcher » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 11:09 am

There's also mortality. Some PRs die each year.

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Re: RE: Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby ecureilx » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 11:12 am

BBCWatcher wrote:There's also mortality. Some PRs die each year.

That's why we need you ... to think outside the box

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Re: RE: Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby BBCWatcher » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 11:21 am

ecureilx wrote:That's why we need you ... to think outside the box

Often inside the box (a casket). :P

According to what SMS previously wrote, he'll die as a PR. He's one future example, hopefully far in the future.

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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby x9200 » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 11:28 am

BBCWatcher wrote:There's also mortality. Some PRs die each year.

I though of it but I would expect more PRs to populate - have (more) offspring after becoming PR than SCs, both with similar mortality rates.

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Re: RE: Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby sundaymorningstaple » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 12:11 pm

BBCWatcher wrote:
ecureilx wrote:That's why we need you ... to think outside the box

Often inside the box (a casket). :P

According to what SMS previously wrote, he'll die as a PR. He's one future example, hopefully far in the future.


8-[

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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby dynoto » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 12:48 pm

Wow thats rather morbid example ...
Haha


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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby PNGMK » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 1:15 pm

This confirms what I've thought for awhile about the number of PR's in the 'other' category. It's a very tight quota. The entire document makes it clear that PR is a step to SC and that the entire effort is around maintaining a stable population with fixed race ratios.

Interesting snippets:

1. Immigration helps to balance the shrinking and ageing of our citizen population. The majority of our PRs are in the prime working ages of 25-49 years.
2. Similar to past years, we granted about 20,000 new citizens last year.
3. Permanent residence is an intermediate step through which suitable foreigners and spouses take up citizenship in Singapore. Since the tightening of the immigration framework in late 2009, we have taken in about 30,000 new PRs a year, to keep the PR population stable and to ensure a pool of suitable candidates for citizenship.

4. When I look at the old ratio and current ratio we can see "Others" and "Indian's" race weighting has come up from 2005 - hence I think we can expect Indian's and Others to have issues with PR approval for some time yet. The implied yearly ethnic quota's below are based on the original race ratios. Note that I state implied - the ICA has never said there is a quote but we know there is a granting cap or limit as per point 2 & 3 above. Remember that a main applicant could be bringing in 4 or more family members in total and that we know families are preferred - unfortunately the "other" category which is popular with friends who desire PR is extremely tight - maybe only 100 families in total!

Chinese Ratio Adj. Quota
Indian Ratio 2160
Chinese Ratio 22950
Other Ratio 330
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Re: RE: Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby ecureilx » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 1:59 pm

dynoto wrote:Wow thats rather morbid example ...
Haha


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Well, when some guy can start of by saying stuff like - if you haven't committed any serious crime - for somebody asking about coming to Singapore...

It's not that abnormal I guess ...;)

On the other hand, SMS should charge a royalty when he is quoted as example ..

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Re: Population Statistics - Residents and NonResidents wanna be

Postby sundaymorningstaple » Tue, 30 Aug 2016 3:01 pm

PNGMK wrote:This confirms what I've thought for awhile about the number of PR's in the 'other' category. It's a very tight quota. The entire document makes it clear that PR is a step to SC and that the entire effort is around maintaining a stable population with fixed race ratios.

Interesting snippets:

1. Immigration helps to balance the shrinking and ageing of our citizen population. The majority of our PRs are in the prime working ages of 25-49 years.
2. Similar to past years, we granted about 20,000 new citizens last year.
3. Permanent residence is an intermediate step through which suitable foreigners and spouses take up citizenship in Singapore. Since the tightening of the immigration framework in late 2009, we have taken in about 30,000 new PRs a year, to keep the PR population stable and to ensure a pool of suitable candidates for citizenship.

4. When I look at the old ratio and current ratio we can see "Others" and "Indian's" race weighting has come up from 2005 - hence I think we can expect Indian's and Others to have issues with PR approval for some time yet. The implied yearly ethnic quota's below are based on the original race ratios. Note that I state implied - the ICA has never said there is a quote but we know there is a granting cap or limit as per point 2 & 3 above. Remember that a main applicant could be bringing in 4 or more family members in total and that we know families are preferred - unfortunately the "other" category which is popular with friends who desire PR is extremely tight - maybe only 100 families in total!

Chinese Ratio Adj. Quota
Indian Ratio 2160
Chinese Ratio 22950
Other Ratio 330


The problem came up and the government has never denied that it is rebalancing the demographic percentages. The skewing happened during the run up to 2000 and the push to become an IT Hub (which, for all intents and purposes didn't really happen to the degree that had been wished). In the hellbent method that the government generally uses anytime they want to change directions, they opened up the floodgates for anybody who knew some coding skills because they thought the whole island would come to a standstill on the stroke of midnight on New Years Even 1999/2000. Most of the programmers (at a certain price point) were Indian Programmers and they flooded the market (and are still trying to do so, but they are not a cheap anymore). this pushed the traditional demographic for that ethnic grouping from 7% traditionally to something over 9% (around 9.3% I read in one article around 4 years ago). This was a direct hit to the Chinese majority 78% and the gahment didn't like that. They were not paying attention - now they are, to the detriment of any Subcon trying to come to Singapore to try their luck. LYK has always said that Immigration was the way to control the demographics. More Chinese than ever are being let in, but for a different reason. They are not trying to increase their percentage of the whole but to help to maintain it as the Chinese has the lowest TFR of all the ethnic groupings here. So they are 'naturally' losing ground because they like to have toy dogs to play with instead of their spouses.


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