UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

[x9200]

It is nothing unexpected to have the Pound falling down and other economic indicators doing the same, especially within weeks after such decision. It is going to take years to see the real outcome of the decision. What is unexpected is Johnson's and Farage's move. This only contributes to the impression of uncertainty even among the Brexit leaders and again, a massive manipulation. I bet these two (NF and BJ) are going to wait what happens and only after the UK finds itself on calm waters again, then they will be the fathers of the success for sure.

Both the UK and the EU use currently sabre rattling rhetorics what doesn't help with anything. It should not be the way of the EU to punish the UK, because the membership to the club should not be based on threatening. The UK on the other hand should not expect to have the relationship with the EU like they were to keep all the critical benefits of the member with no critical duties or obligations. This would just send a wrong message to the EU members.

[PNGMK]

I notice Farage has not resigned his MEP seat. That means he continues to enjoy a host of fringe benefits including duty free vehicles, diplomatic immunity and a whole raft of allowances. What a kunt.

[BBCWatcher]

Oh, it gets worse. Farage (of all people) is upset that Theresa May -- Britain's next Prime Minister, most likely -- won't guarantee that his German wife, among others, can stay in the United Kingdom. On LBC he said: "I am disgusted at the way May has been speaking. The EU nationals living in the UK came here legally and they have protected rights."

No, they don't have protected rights. The Vienna Convention (which France didn't even sign!) is about states and their obligations, not individuals and their rights. This was another "Leave" b.s. argument, as international legal experts pointed out. And now Farage is "disgusted"? What did he think he was campaigning for?

[BBCWatcher]

Both the UK and the EU use currently sabre rattling rhetorics what doesn't help with anything.

Where's the EU "sabre rattling"?

Like practically any deal, this deal (EU affiliation, in whatever form) will include rights, privileges, obligations, and responsibilities. As Angela Merkel said, the United Kingdom won't get to cherry-pick. If the United Kingdom wants some rights and privileges, the United Kingdom will have to (re)sign up for some obligations and responsibilities. The more of the former, the more of the latter. The less of the former, the less of the latter. Some of the former (e.g. access to the Single Market) are inseparable from some of the latter (e.g. freedom of movement, contributions to the EU budget). That's how it goes, that's how it will go. EU leaders have said all this before, in very businesslike fashion, and they continue to say it, also in very businesslike fashion. [Indeed, the United Kingdom enjoyed the sweetest deal in the entire European Union: no Schengen, no euro currency, and several other derogations. The EU has been deeply respectful of U.K. exceptions, already. The U.K. was the only EU country that obtained permanent derogations on both Schengen and currency.] It's not "sabre rattling," it's a fact. The European Union is simply not going to give the United Kingdom (or what's left of the United Kingdom)(*) everything the United Kingdom might wish, in part because the EU has already bent over backwards to try to satisfy the U.K. with various derogations and still without success. (I'd love an endless supply of free iPhones, but Apple isn't going to grant me my wish either.) This is a partnership organization, not a battered spousal "relationship" with one country dictating terms to its exclusive benefit. It's not a "prison" either, or at least it hasn't been since the Treaty of Lisbon and Article 50.

All of this was, is perfectly predictable. Want to join a fitness club and enjoy its equipment and classes? No problem, but you'll have to pay some dues, you have to wear a swimsuit in the pool, and you don't get to play loud gangsta' rap in the gym (unless everybody else votes for a gangsta' rap workout session). Even if you are British. This stuff is not complicated, and the EU isn't making it complicated. It's very...businesslike.

(*) Another very interesting aspect to the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union is that, had Scotland voted for independence a couple years ago, any EU member -- including the United Kingdom ex-Scotland -- could have vetoed Scotland's application to join the European Union. This was actually part of the reason why some voters decided in favor of remaining within the U.K., the risk that the U.K. government might, out of spite, prevent Scotland from joining. (Or Spain for its own domestic political reasons.) Any EU member can also veto Turkey's long-into-the-future application to join the EU. But that won't be true when the United Kingdom leaves the EU. The situation has flipped, completely. Nicola Sturgeon (and her friends in Gibraltar) are investigating whether Scotland (with the Scottish territory of Gibraltar) can simply assume the United Kingdom's EU membership as the successor state of interest, or what you might call the "Greenland model." (Greenland, a Danish territory, left the EC even while Denmark remained within it.) In this case, "Greenland" would be England and Wales. Northern Ireland is a puzzle, truly. The Greenland model looks a bit far fetched at this point in time, but I'm sure they'll continue to investigate the possibility. The EU seems to find ways of clearing legal obstacles when it is highly motivated. However, even if Scotland has to leave the EU along with the United Kingdom, an independent Scotland can quickly reapply for EU admission and the United Kingdom won't be able to stop it even if the U.K. government wanted to. The U.K. won't be an EU member and so cannot veto Scotland's membership. Spain still could, but Spain would be under enormous pressure not to in that event because the circumstances would be quite different. Ideally Scotland's status would be "grandfathered," meaning that if Scotland applied to join within X years after the United Kingdom's departure Scotland would only have to meet the EU requirements it had as a part of the U.K. Scotland would continue to enjoy derogations on Schengen and currency, in particular. But we'll see. Legally this part is rather complicated -- the one exception to the "not complicated" part above.

[BBCWatcher]

Farage (of all people) is upset that Theresa May -- Britain's next Prime Minister, most likely -- won't guarantee that his German wife, among others, can stay in the United Kingdom.

I can elaborate a bit on this. Farage's household may be experiencing what thousands if not millions of households are now experiencing: the pain and angst of an uncertain future together.

May has only promised that if other European countries agree to allow U.K. citizens to stay, then the U.K. government will reciprocate. Many leaders, including Farage, are quite upset about this, but it's the natural, predictable outcome of a "Leave" vote -- and was predicted. As many U.K. political leaders point out, May is now using members of (very often) British households -- including Nigel Farage's own wife -- as bargaining chips. There's absolutely no reason why the U.K. government couldn't unilaterally guarantee stay permission, and it should. Yet that's not what the (most likely) next PM is doing.

This is real life, as real as it gets. There are millions of mixed nationality households in Europe that include at least one U.K. citizen. They're now very concerned, understandably. I still hold out hope that the U.K. ends up with exactly what Norway has: EEA membership. That "Norway model" outcome would honor the referendum result (leaving the European Union) but still maintain freedom of movement. That would be the easiest way for Farage and his German wife to remain together -- and the many households like them -- in the United Kingdom, in wedded bliss. EEA membership and its freedom of movement wouldn't make the racists and xenophobes happy (except perhaps, belatedly, Nigel Farage), but nothing reasonable or even moderately unreasonable would. However, mixed nationality households certainly cannot bank on an EEA outcome, and Theresa May isn't helping. So what these households are doing (besides panicking, understandably) is they're investigating getting EU Long-Term Residence Permits (they're offered in every EU country except the U.K., Ireland, and Denmark) and/or EU or U.K. citizenships, as the case may be. In principle Nigel Farage's wife could acquire British citizenship. Unfortunately that's not free -- far from it. The naturalisation fee is currently £1236. Farage and his wife might be able to afford that, but didn't somebody mention the plight of those with modest incomes in this very thread? Well-to-do people can almost always find ways to clear immigration-related hurdles. It's the poor and the middle class that get hurt by this stuff, and they're being hurt right now, already.

It's not entirely clear to me whether Farage's wife could acquire U.K. citizenship without jeopardizing her German citizenship. I'm not an expert on German nationality law. But that's another set of problems for some (even if not for Farage's wife), the fact that some EU/EEA countries might not tolerate dual or multiple citizenships.

[BBCWatcher]

Columbia Threadneedle, Canada Life, and Henderson have also now halted redemptions from their U.K. property funds. With the other funds previously frozen, that means half of the £25 billion property fund sector is now frozen.

Analysts now predict that the remaining half of the U.K. property fund sector will also be frozen imminently, probably within hours. Predictions are they'll be frozen for months. Investors won't be able to withdraw funds -- and then, when redemptions resume (probably "gated"), only on a depreciated basis (and with pound depreciation on top of that). The fundamental problem is that major real estate holdings are illiquid. You cannot sell an office block or a shopping mall within three hours -- at least not if you want to get a non-ridiculous price for it. Competent fund managers keep some funds on hand to satisfy normal or even somewhat abnormal redemption requests, but these are not normal times.

With the U.K. property fund market frozen, that also means investors (even brave ones) are extremely unlikely to fund any new real estate acquisitions or projects except, maybe, through traditional direct investment -- and then only extremely cautiously. Fund managers are now in the queue to try to unload properties to raise funds (at lower currency valuations), and that obviously puts downward pressure on the U.K. real estate market. The fund market provides (or provided) a major and growing part of U.K. property development funding. The United Kingdom -- especially Greater London -- was already in the midst of probably its biggest, most inflated real estate bubble ever. And now this is happening. Fabulous. We don't yet who is too heavily exposed to U.K. property funds or U.K. real estate, but "nobody" is probably the wrong answer.

This is how financial crises start and snowball, only this time it's the United Kingdom having most of the "fun." It feels like deja vu, doesn't it? Watch these developments very carefully in the coming days, weeks, and months. It's getting very scary.(*) Thank goodness the United Kingdom has its own currency -- there's that, at least -- but its EU membership was never about that.

(*) Less scary if you shorted U.K. real estate in some fashion. (I have only minor, direct, long exposure to U.K. real estate.) However, still somewhat scary. Shorting doesn't work so well if trading freezes. The recent film The Big Short, though flawed in certain ways, did a fairly good job of explaining the problems the shorts had in the run-up to the ~2008 Financial Crisis. They couldn't get genuine valuations for quite some time, and then they had to be very careful to close out their positions before it was too late. And, as the film reminded its viewers, a financial crisis means real people suffer, a lot. Nobody ought to be wishing for that.

[PNGMK]

I notice Farage's pre-positioning to act as a consultant or create parties in Europe to help other countries 'achieve independence'.... it would not suprise me at all if he suddenly announced he was a citizen of some European country and left the UK completely. He's without a doubt now a threatened person in the UK. If I were a jobless young yob on the streets and I saw him....

[x9200]

Both the UK and the EU use currently sabre rattling rhetorics what doesn't help with anything.

Where's the EU "sabre rattling"?

How Mr Junker alone acts post the referendum is nothing but this. Irrational, short temper responses of an emotionally immature person. I've hear he is a European Commission President.

[PNGMK]

Both the UK and the EU use currently sabre rattling rhetorics what doesn't help with anything.

Where's the EU "sabre rattling"?

How Mr Junker alone acts post the referendum is nothing but this. Irrational, short temper responses of an emotionally immature person. I've hear he is a European Commission President.

In his cultural context (i.e. arrogant by nature and considering English is not his first language) and considering the external threat that Boris/Farage have created I've found him to be ok. Frankly if I had been him I'd have barred Nigel from EP altogether.

[BBCWatcher]

I agree with PNGMK.

Look at this.... The Japanese 10 year bond is now yielding -0.277% as I write this (per Bloomberg). U.S. Treasuries fell to record low yields across all maturities and are near those record lows now. (This is all the more remarkable since domestic U.S. tax rates on U.S. bond interest increased a couple years ago for the highest income U.S. residents and citizens most likely to be holding these bonds directly or through funds.) The German 10 year is yielding -0.176%.

Yet another problem is that the British public/government still owns 73% of RBS. RBS shares have been hammered, especially (but not only) when measured in a basket of currencies. The U.K. government was getting ready to refloat RBS and claim some value back for the public, but that plan is now shelved.

[x9200]

Where's the EU "sabre rattling"?

How Mr Junker alone acts post the referendum is nothing but this. Irrational, short temper responses of an emotionally immature person. I've hear he is a European Commission President.

In his cultural context (i.e. arrogant by nature and considering English is not his first language) and considering the external threat that Boris/Farage have created I've found him to be ok. Frankly if I had been him I'd have barred Nigel from EP altogether.

That's probably why you should not be the EC President. I can understand his emotions but it doesn't change the fact, does it.

[Barnsley]

I notice Farage's pre-positioning to act as a consultant or create parties in Europe to help other countries 'achieve independence'.... it would not suprise me at all if he suddenly announced he was a citizen of some European country and left the UK completely. He's without a doubt now a threatened person in the UK. If I were a jobless young yob on the streets and I saw him....

I am fairly sure the majority of the jobless voted to leave so would consider him some kind of hero for leading them towards the "Promised Land".

[PNGMK]

I notice Farage's pre-positioning to act as a consultant or create parties in Europe to help other countries 'achieve independence'.... it would not suprise me at all if he suddenly announced he was a citizen of some European country and left the UK completely. He's without a doubt now a threatened person in the UK. If I were a jobless young yob on the streets and I saw him....

I am fairly sure the majority of the jobless voted to leave so would consider him some kind of hero for leading them towards the "Promised Land".

I don't know... what I've read of the polls is that the young now see themselves as worse off. It is a peculiarly British thing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory though and I see this as no different to cratering the commonwealth or the lose of the colonies or the reformation etc. It's in your DNA!

[PNGMK]

How Mr Junker alone acts post the referendum is nothing but this. Irrational, short temper responses of an emotionally immature person. I've hear he is a European Commission President.

In his cultural context (i.e. arrogant by nature and considering English is not his first language) and considering the external threat that Boris/Farage have created I've found him to be ok. Frankly if I had been him I'd have barred Nigel from EP altogether.

That's probably why you should not be the EC President. I can understand his emotions but it doesn't change the fact, does it.

I admit to not knowing Junker's personally but I do know one MEP (a UK one) personally and he IS an arrogant sod. So perhaps it goes with the territory?

[JR8]

>>PNG>> 'I notice Farage's pre-positioning to act as a consultant or create parties in Europe to help other countries 'achieve independence'.... it would not suprise me at all if he suddenly announced he was a citizen of some European country and left the UK completely. He's without a doubt now a threatened person in the UK. If I were a jobless young yob on the streets and I saw him....
>Barnsley> 'I am fairly sure the majority of the jobless voted to leave so would consider him some kind of hero for leading them towards the "Promised Land".
>>PNG>> 'I don't know... what I've read of the polls is that the young now see themselves as worse off. It is a peculiarly British thing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory though and I see this as no different to cratering the commonwealth or the lose of the colonies or the reformation etc. It's in your DNA![/quote]
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It's fascinating to see how foreigners outside of the EU respond to this. If sometimes hard to divine their interest/s. I appreciate that if you follow mainstream media you might imagine the UK have triggered some form of self-immolation, but that is the view that comes with the vested interests of that mainstream media.
The UK is already talking of renewing/regrowing ties and trade with the Commonwealth, and that seems a natural step. Hard to see how someone from the Antipodes/Commonwealth thinks that a bad thing.
For others from say the former Eastern Block there could be parallels drawn to this being a 'Lech Walensa moment'. So maybe they recognise a reflection in the mirror of their recent past over what the 'BREXITeers' have done. I.e. you'd have imagined they would equally be celebrating newly found liberty.

The youth, never mind the jobless youth hardly bothered to turn out and vote, what does that suggest. And the majority who did vote voted to leave. That vote would never have happened but for Nigel Farage, so I expect he will go down in future as something of a popular folk hero. Brussels/Berlin/Strasburg [or where-ever the rotating EU political circus is based this month on it's rotating schedule] might not be a place Farage will get a warm welcome this month, at least from indentured establishment/EU apparatchiks. But he might be one of the very few politicians who can say that barring the details his mission is 100% accomplished.